dbullsfan Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 Either that or some of the posters on here took over the NHC. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 1 hour ago, Roger Smith said: Just starting to cross the warmer core of Gulf stream, I would say Nicole reaches at least low end cat-2 at some point tonight, possibly mid-range cat-2, and also performs more of a curve north than model consensus, earlier was asking people what they thought of a grazing coastal track, possibly some inland movement now probable, but I think Nicole will try to stay over warm water as long as it can, could mean a landfall Jupiter to Melbourne. Never all that far inland, heads up NNW with enough of circulation over water to retain cat-1 intensity for quite a while, strong TS near Georgia coast in 36-42h. Long duration fetch means storm surge issues must be taken very seriously. This is now almost as strong as Sandy approaching NJ and Staten Island comes to mind. Were not the storm surge forecasts lowballed there? Or did people not take accurate warnings seriously? One or other as I recall. 1) Sandy made landfall at 945 mb 2) Sandy was 1,100 miles wide 3) Sandy pushed the surge into New York Bay which is one of the largest bays in the world and naturally incredibly surge prone. There is nothing like that around where Nicole is going. To sum it up, this is nothing like Sandy. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 Interesting official forecast for Orlando just increased wind forecast at 7:30 PM update to peak 55-65 with gusts to 80. Don't see that verifying but we'll know more as reports start further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 Just now, TradeWinds said: Interesting official forecast for Orlando just increased wind forecast at 7:30 PM update to peak 55-65 with gusts to 80. Don't see that verifying but we'll know more as reports start further south. Recon showing expansive wind field on the N side of the storm. So with the current track, not an unreasonable forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 Here in Gulfport FL, Tampa Bay, it is 68 degrees with a strong breeze and gusts into the 30s with cold drizzle at times. It feels like a big storm, but not Tropical. It feels like a Winter storm. A Southeaster? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 Definitely feels tropical here. 73º with a dewpoint of 72.6º. It's been breezy all day but nothing noteworthy. Max gust so far is 25 kts . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clyde Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 The transformer to my house, and only my house, blew about an hour ago. I might possibly have been the first power outage in Seminole County due to Nicole…. 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbullsfan Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 Question for everyone and forgive me if this should be in the banter thread, but. When I look at the radar on weather.com it looks like the eye is almost going NNW as it lands putting it on a track to go over Orlando or even east of Orlando. This seems to differ from the cone or most tracks, is this just the model they are using or are they projecting a jump east in the track? Or am I just misreading the radar . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 7 minutes ago, Clyde said: The transformer to my house, and only my house, blew about an hour ago. I might possibly have been the first power outage in Seminole County due to Nicole… Here in Pinellas County, when we see 40 mph gusts, power starts to go out and we hear transformers exploding. At night we see the bright blue flashes. It's life in a Tree City with old trees. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 6 minutes ago, dbullsfan said: Question for everyone and forgive me if this should be in the banter thread, but. When I look at the radar on weather.com it looks like the eye is almost going NNW as it lands putting it on a track to go over Orlando or even east of Orlando. This seems to differ from the cone or most tracks, is this just the model they are using or are they projecting a jump east in the track? Or am I just misreading the radar . It's like an optical illusion especially with wider eyes. They also use a composite radar I suppose. Even on radarscope, you can tell on a 20 frame loop it is WNW. Check out this loop and you'll see jogs but a general WNW. https://twitter.com/TMainolfiWESH/status/1590518516167368704?t=enBwT-KL08LxbScN89GQ9w&s=19 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 Eyewall seems open to the south, will probably fill in with frictional convergence eventually though. Thought 80-85 MPH would be easily obtained but LF intensity may end up being just 60-65 knots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 Reminds me of when Frances had a large ragged eye on the east coast back in 2004. Not nearly as strong, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSLwx Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 The link to a WeatherSTEM at the House of Refuge on the south end of Hutchinson Island in Martin County: https://martin.weatherstem.com/fswnhouseofrefuge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 6 minutes ago, Floydbuster said: Reminds me of when Frances had a large ragged eye on the east coast back in 2004. Not nearly as strong, of course. Yup, this is exactly what it’s reminding me of! The giant primary band has made it here, and this is effectively the eyewall. Conditions are becoming much more intense and sustained very quickly. It appears the most intense part of the hurricane is likely to make it here. It’s sliding through Boca Raton and rapidly heading towards the Broward metro area. Also notably, it smells like the ocean! Literally the same smell as the beach when you’re standing next to breaking waves. It’s really nice 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 One of the ugliest looking Hurricanes you'll see make landfall. But I guess it's November so What'd you expect. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 8 minutes ago, Amped said: One of the ugliest looking Hurricanes you'll see make landfall. But I guess it's November so What'd you expect. It's more of a hybrid system given its massive wind field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 1 hour ago, NeffsvilleWx said: Definitely feels tropical here. 73º with a dewpoint of 72.6º. It's been breezy all day but nothing noteworthy. Max gust so far is 25 kts . I think the Melbourne area is going to get some of the strongest winds, being in the northern eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 75 knot SFMR in NE eyewall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 10:30pm EST Video Update https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6WFEdiLeNTU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 42 minutes ago, Amped said: One of the ugliest looking Hurricanes you'll see make landfall. But I guess it's November so What'd you expect. Quite impressive actually for the latest FL east coast landfall in recorded history. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 Believe its the first US station, but Vero Beach is at 39/52 first official tropical storm condition verified station. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 1 hour ago, TradeWinds said: Quite impressive actually for the latest FL east coast landfall in recorded history. What year did it break? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 Hurricane Nicole Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022 1200 AM EST Thu Nov 10 2022 ...12 AM EST POSITION UPDATE OF NICOLE... ...NICOLE BRINGING STRONG WINDS, A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND HEAVY RAINS AS IT APPROACHES THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA... A weather station at Sebastian Inlet, Florida, recently reported a sustained wind of 48 mph (77 km/h) with a wind gust of 66 mph (106 km/h). A WeatherSTEM station near Stuart Beach, Florida, recently reported a sustained wind of 47 mph (76 km/h) with a wind gust of 62 mph (100 km/h). SUMMARY OF 1200 AM EST...0500 UTC...INFORMATION --------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.1N 79.6W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM ESE OF FORT PIERCE FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 15 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: What year did it break? 1935 - Miami (Nov 4) 1985 - Kate (Cat 2 into Panhandle Nov 21) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 A little close off and tightening just before landfall. Impressive for mid Nov. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 Unless it's a trick of the eyes, I see a more northwest wobble the last hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 ...2 AM EST POSITION UPDATE OF NICOLE... ...STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND WAVES, AND HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE AS NICOLE NEARS THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA... NOAA buoy 41009, located about 25 miles east of Cape Canaveral, Florida, recently reported a sustained wind of 49 mph (79 km/h) and a wind gust to 65 mph (104 km/h). A weather station at Patrick Air Force Base recently reported a sustained wind of 53 mph (85 km/h) with a wind gust of 61 mph (98 km/h). A NOAA tide gauge at Fernandina Beach, Florida observed a water level of 4.5 feet above Mean Higher High Water. SUMMARY OF 200 AM EST...0700 UTC...INFORMATION --------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.4N 80.1W ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM E OF FORT PIERCE FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 4 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said: ...2 AM EST POSITION UPDATE OF NICOLE... ...STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND WAVES, AND HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE AS NICOLE NEARS THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA... NOAA buoy 41009, located about 25 miles east of Cape Canaveral, Florida, recently reported a sustained wind of 49 mph (79 km/h) and a wind gust to 65 mph (104 km/h). A weather station at Patrick Air Force Base recently reported a sustained wind of 53 mph (85 km/h) with a wind gust of 61 mph (98 km/h). A NOAA tide gauge at Fernandina Beach, Florida observed a water level of 4.5 feet above Mean Higher High Water. SUMMARY OF 200 AM EST...0700 UTC...INFORMATION --------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.4N 80.1W ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM E OF FORT PIERCE FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES Going off 2 AM motion, should expect landfall around 3:30 AM or before. Also formed quite a large CDO despite dry air 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 32 ft waves reported from the buoy off Cape Canaveral. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 000 WTNT62 KNHC 100800 TCUAT2 Hurricane Nicole Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022 300 AM EST Thu Nov 10 2022 ...NICOLE MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA JUST SOUTH OF VERO BEACH... Radar imagery from Miami and Melbourne shows the center of Nicole has made landfall on the east coast of the Florida peninsula on North Hutchinson Island just south of Vero Beach. The maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 75 mph (120 km/h), and the minimum central pressure is estimated to be 981 mb (28.97 inches). This will be the last hourly update given the degraded radar structure of Nicole. SUMMARY OF 300 AM EST...0800 UTC...INFORMATION --------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.6N 80.4W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM NNW OF FORT PIERCE FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES $$ Forecaster Bucci/Reinhart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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