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October 2022 General Discussion


Hoosier
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The Mississippi River set a new record low in Caruthersville, MO breaking the previous record set in 2012 of -0.82 ft. The level is forecasted to decline over the next 7 days. 

The level is only 1.4 ft from breaking the 1988 record of -10.70 ft in Memphis, TN.

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1 hour ago, bdgwx said:

The Mississippi River set a new record low in Caruthersville, MO breaking the previous record set in 2012 of -0.82 ft. The level is forecasted to decline over the next 7 days. 

The level is only 1.4 ft from breaking the 1988 record of -10.70 ft in Memphis, TN.

Yeah I was reading about that.  Pretty impressive.

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Just out of curiosity, I looked around this time frame, and I do see a pattern with a SE ridge, and N Rockies ridge. Low pressure in the C/S Rockies region. Something to watch up this way. Not at all unusual to get good snows at the end of Oct. A little push from the north, and some stubborness in the southeast puts potential my way.

 

This Oct reminds me of 2020. A cold, snowy one. Last year was record highs.

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10 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

Chicago area folks should be watching the potential for the first flakes of the season on Monday, associated with an inverted trough featuring swinging through the Great Lakes.

(Along with portions of WI/MI/N IN/N OH).

"FOR ALL INTENTS AND PURPOSES, MONDAY'S WEATHER COULD EASILY BE A  
FORECAST ANY GIVEN DAY IN JANUARY!" - IZZIED

 

sadly 40 degrees with a chance of flurries is not my idea of a great January day.

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14 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

Chicago area folks should be watching the potential for the first flakes of the season on Monday, associated with an inverted trough featuring swinging through the Great Lakes.

(Along with portions of WI/MI/N IN/N OH).

Certainly looks like a chance for Chicago to see its first flakes (the other locations mentioned are pretty much a given).  And interestingly, considering the early time of year, areas closer to the lake in IL look more favored than farther west given the proximity to the trough and offshore winds means that the marine warmth won't be a factor.

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7 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

Don't recall any significant October or early November snows in these parts leading to great winters but will leave that to the stats guys.

Off the top of my head, I know that some November snows have led to pretty good winters in the area.  You may be onto something with respect to October snows, but then we're probably getting into sample size issues and whether it's correlation vs some kind of causation.

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7 hours ago, Met1985 said:

Nice to see snow back in my old stomping grounds of North Wisconsin.  Is this pretty average for snow to be coming in for this time of the year?

So-so. But the amount that sticks is usually quite small, if any, so anything over an inch would be significant. By late Oct, tho, as the average temp is much cooler, then you see more.

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2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Off the top of my head, I know that some November snows have led to pretty good winters in the area.  You may be onto something with respect to October snows, but then we're probably getting into sample size issues and whether it's correlation vs some kind of causation.

2020 would be an example of cold, snowy Oct followed by a mild winter (even tho FEB 2021 was harsh). But in looking ahead, I see this winter being a lot like what we have seen this Fall. Very mild/cold at times.

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As far as snow chances, not saying there will be no negative marine influence for South Bend, but I would think they are far enough inland to not get completely skunked like the areas near the IN/southwest MI shore probably will.  So I dug into October snowfall climo for SBN.

There have been exactly 2 years that produced an inch or more of snow on October 18 or earlier -- 1.5" on 10/18/1972 and an incredible 13.0" on 10/10-11/1906, which appears to have been a lake effect event (in case anyone is wondering, the storm in 1989 happened just after the 18th).

I found an alleged 1.0" snowfall in September 1994, but this appears to me to be erroneous as the lowest temp that day was 41.  Maybe it was hail or something?  Anyway, this was disregarded.

So, if they can somehow manage to get an inch, it would be pretty significant.  Really anything measurable at all would be noteworthy for this part of October.

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2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

As far as snow chances, not saying there will be no negative marine influence for South Bend, but I would think they are far enough inland to not get completely skunked like the areas near the IN/southwest MI shore probably will.  So I dug into October snowfall climo for SBN.

There have been exactly 2 years that produced an inch or more of snow on October 18 or earlier -- 1.5" on 10/18/1972 and an incredible 13.0" on 10/10-11/1906, which appears to have been a lake effect event (in case anyone is wondering, the storm in 1989 happened just after the 18th).

I found an alleged 1.0" snowfall in September 1994, but this appears to me to be erroneous as the lowest temp that day was 41.  Maybe it was hail or something?  Anyway, this was disregarded.

So, if they can somehow manage to get an inch, it would be pretty significant.  Really anything measurable at all would be noteworthy for this part of October.

Of course '89 is the gold standard for October snow in IN. An Indy TV station just highlighted it a couple of days ago. Interestingly, they have as their 2nd largest Oct. snow as 1993. I do not remember that event, and the others are from the dark ages.

SNOWIEST-OCTOBERS.webp

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On 10/15/2022 at 5:47 PM, Brian D said:

Looked up Duluth's 1 day 2.0 or greater snows. Not very many for the first half of OCT. This was significant.

 

Duluth 2.0 snow or greater.gif

Looks like Duluth reported a 2.0" and a 2.7" the last couple days. 4.7" would make that the 3rd snowiest event for the first half of Oct. behind 1966 & 1925. Wow!

 

Update: Sent an email to NWS Duluth regarding the amounts reported. That seems way more than anyone else got. Possible they screwed up. Thinking 2.7" is the total overall, as that is in line with all the other reports.

 

Update #2: They responded quick. 2.7" was the total. Hopefully they will make the corrections on there prelim CF6 form, and it should make it into MRCC.

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1 hour ago, IWXwx said:

Of course '89 is the gold standard for October snow in IN. An Indy TV station just highlighted it a couple of days ago. Interestingly, they have as their 2nd largest Oct. snow as 1993. I do not remember that event, and the others are from the dark ages.

SNOWIEST-OCTOBERS.webp

The 1993 one was on the 30th.

Interestingly, 1925 happened on 3 days that were spaced apart (0.5" on 10/22, 0.6" on 10/28 and 0.3" on 10/30).  That means that it was a pattern that was favorable for snow and not just a fluke one-off.

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5 hours ago, Hoosier said:

As far as snow chances, not saying there will be no negative marine influence for South Bend, but I would think they are far enough inland to not get completely skunked like the areas near the IN/southwest MI shore probably will.  So I dug into October snowfall climo for SBN.

There have been exactly 2 years that produced an inch or more of snow on October 18 or earlier -- 1.5" on 10/18/1972 and an incredible 13.0" on 10/10-11/1906, which appears to have been a lake effect event (in case anyone is wondering, the storm in 1989 happened just after the 18th).

I found an alleged 1.0" snowfall in September 1994, but this appears to me to be erroneous as the lowest temp that day was 41.  Maybe it was hail or something?  Anyway, this was disregarded.

So, if they can somehow manage to get an inch, it would be pretty significant.  Really anything measurable at all would be noteworthy for this part of October.

I’m hoping we can get a flow off the lake like this in a couple months when temps are about 20 degrees colder, but I’ll be out with my yardstick Tuesday morning. I moved on the Spring and now I’m near the Michigan border about four miles east of the SBN airport. I think someone will end up with a surprise two or three inches away from the lake given the dynamic setup.

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" THEN CONDITIONS COULD BECOME VERY BAD.  
REASONABLE WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD INCLUDE A PERIOD OF INTENSE  
(THUNDER?)SNOW WITH RATES >2"/HOUR (WHICH WOULD BE HEAVY ENOUGH   
TO ACCUMULATE ON ROADWAY), EXTREMELY LOW VISIBILITY, AND   
CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED WIND GUSTS OVER 40MPH. THE HEAVY, WET NATURE  
OF THE SNOW WOULD LIKELY STICK TO TREES WHICH ARE STILL LEAFED OUT  
WITH STRONG WINDS LIKELY DOWNING TREES LIMBS AND POWER LINES "

I love it when IZZI goes rogue. 

Caveat:"THERE ARE A MANY UNCERTAINTIES AND POTENTIAL FAILURE MODES,"

Wonder who the next Met in the office gets to unravel "The Full Izzi" ? :lol:

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5 hours ago, Baum said:

" THEN CONDITIONS COULD BECOME VERY BAD.  
REASONABLE WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD INCLUDE A PERIOD OF INTENSE  
(THUNDER?)SNOW WITH RATES >2"/HOUR (WHICH WOULD BE HEAVY ENOUGH   
TO ACCUMULATE ON ROADWAY), EXTREMELY LOW VISIBILITY, AND   
CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED WIND GUSTS OVER 40MPH. THE HEAVY, WET NATURE  
OF THE SNOW WOULD LIKELY STICK TO TREES WHICH ARE STILL LEAFED OUT  
WITH STRONG WINDS LIKELY DOWNING TREES LIMBS AND POWER LINES "

I love it when IZZI goes rogue. 

Caveat:"THERE ARE A MANY UNCERTAINTIES AND POTENTIAL FAILURE MODES,"

Wonder who the next Met in the office gets to unravel "The Full Izzi" ? :lol:

Still a good amount of uncertainty, but I actually am warming up to this type of scenario happening somewhere.  It may be farther east in the IWX cwa though.

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