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October 2022 General Discussion


Hoosier
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The first potential item of interest to open the month will be whether the remnants of Ian make it into the sub.  The latest GFS and Euro do have it moving into the OV, and the associated clouds/precip have temps struggling to get out of the 50s on the models.  Obviously subject to change.

Beyond that, there are indications of at least some decent warm spells. 

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This would be an interesting lake setup if it were colder.  850 mb temps are well below 0C but 925 mb to the surface is above freezing... not cold enough for snow.  Coincidentally this is progged on the anniversary of the 10/7-10/8/2000 lake effect event, when I did witness heavy, wet snow accompanied by plentiful thunder/lightning.

 

prateptype-cat-ecmwf-us-mw.png

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6 hours ago, Hoosier said:

This would be an interesting lake setup if it were colder.  850 mb temps are well below 0C but 925 mb to the surface is above freezing... not cold enough for snow.  Coincidentally this is progged on the anniversary of the 10/7-10/8/2000 lake effect event, when I did witness heavy, wet snow accompanied by plentiful thunder/lightning.

 

prateptype-cat-ecmwf-us-mw.png

I remember that event. I was fishing in a bass tournament in Marshall County IN (Lake Maxinckukee) and watched the lake effect clouds off on the horizon rolling across the sky. A blustery day on the water for sure.

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1 hour ago, IWXwx said:

I remember that event. I was fishing in a bass tournament in Marshall County IN (Lake Maxinckukee) and watched the lake effect clouds off on the horizon rolling across the sky. A blustery day on the water for sure.

I've talked about it before, but it is still one of the craziest wx events I've been through.  Not a whopping amount of snow where I was, but the extremely early season nature of it and all the thunder/lightning makes it very memorable.  It was a Saturday night and I was going to see a movie but before I left home, I checked the radar and saw the stuff upstream over the lake and thought that maybe it had a chance to be interesting later on.  I came out of the theater and it was lightly raining.  Then it flipped to wet snow  and came down hard.  Had to battle marginal temps and ground warmth of course but it still managed to accumulate to some degree.  Woke up in the middle of the night to the sound of a large branch crashing down from the weight of the snow.  Snow didn't completely melt until late afternoon/evening of the 8th.

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2 hours ago, Chambana said:

October picking up where September left off, seasonable, sunny, no wind, and cool nights. Seriously, this weather has been damn near picture perfect. 
 

I can attest to this. I have been taking plenty of pictures.

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Lake effect parameters are looking pretty good around here on Thursday night into Friday... not too dissimilar to the setup from late September.  Should have a pretty robust lake response for a while that probably most favors the IL/IN state line area/Lake county IN, but the IL shore also looks to be in play for some activity. 

Although 850 mb temps are progged to be at least a couple degrees below 0C, that is not cold enough to get snow at this time of year with onshore flow off of a lake that is still well into the 60s.  It may be cold/saturated enough at cloud level for snow production, but with freezing levels near 4k feet, you'd have to be at least a couple thousand feet in the air for a chance to see flakes.  :P

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7 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

ready 2 b buried

Most of the 12z CAMs produce localized amounts near/over .5".  Obviously can't have the convergence axis wobbling around too much to be able to reach those amounts, and the models generally do stall it out for a time.

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