cptcatz Posted August 31, 2022 Share Posted August 31, 2022 It's not looking terrible on satellite and 18z Euro/EPS did track a bit more southward... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 31, 2022 Share Posted August 31, 2022 0Z UKMET is a little SSE of the 12Z, but it weakens it at hour 24 and doesn't bring it back like it did on the 12Z: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91L ANALYSED POSITION : 15.1N 50.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL912022 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 31.08.2022 0 15.1N 50.0W 1008 26 1200UTC 31.08.2022 12 15.3N 50.8W 1009 25 0000UTC 01.09.2022 24 CEASED TRACKING Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted August 31, 2022 Share Posted August 31, 2022 Just now, GaWx said: 0Z UKMET is a little SSE of the 12Z, but it weakens it at hour 24 and doesn't bring it back like it did on the 12Z: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91L ANALYSED POSITION : 15.1N 50.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL912022 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 31.08.2022 0 15.1N 50.0W 1008 26 1200UTC 31.08.2022 12 15.3N 50.8W 1009 25 0000UTC 01.09.2022 24 CEASED TRACKING Looks better tonight on the northern end. Consensus still has it hit the breaks and turn sharply OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 31, 2022 Author Share Posted August 31, 2022 It's trying. That's about all I can say. The deep convection last night has waned, but according to a (training lol) mission from recon it looks like there's at least a weak mid-level center that convection is trying to fire around. This one is really middling along, but it should develop in more favorable conditions, even if it takes a few more days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 31, 2022 Share Posted August 31, 2022 12z ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 31, 2022 Share Posted August 31, 2022 GEM trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 31, 2022 Share Posted August 31, 2022 2 hours ago, ineedsnow said: 12z ukie The 12Z UKMET is either totally out to lunch (likely) or else 91L could possibly become a legit concern for the CONUS. First, here's the text output showing "ceased tracking" at hour 84 while then moving WNW just NE of the Leewards (nothing remarkable here): MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 31.08.2022 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91L ANALYSED POSITION : 15.2N 51.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL912022 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 31.08.2022 0 15.2N 51.1W 1009 24 0000UTC 01.09.2022 12 16.2N 51.5W 1009 22 1200UTC 01.09.2022 24 17.1N 53.2W 1008 25 0000UTC 02.09.2022 36 17.5N 55.3W 1008 23 1200UTC 02.09.2022 48 17.8N 57.5W 1009 26 0000UTC 03.09.2022 60 18.1N 59.8W 1009 26 1200UTC 03.09.2022 72 19.1N 61.6W 1010 28 0000UTC 04.09.2022 84 CEASED TRACKING But this is where it gets interesting. The model keeps it as a trackable surface low that then moves only a little N of due between 72 and 144 hours. That gets the low to a position that is well SW of dynamic model consensus near 21.7N, 75.5 W (just north of E Cuba) then moving due west: look between the "A" and the "L" of pivotal on the lower right corner of the map posted above by @ineedsnow . Again, it is likely way out to lunch (UKMET sometimes is way left of reality/other models), but it is being noted for the record as this is still not yet set in stone. Consider how much the 12Z Euro slowed down vs the 0Z Euro, for example. Also, as noted above, the 12Z CMC slowed a lot, too, fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 31, 2022 Share Posted August 31, 2022 7 minutes ago, GaWx said: The 12Z UKMET is either totally out to lunch (likely) or else 91L could possibly become a legit concern for the CONUS. First, here's the text output showing "ceased tracking" at hour 84 while then moving WNW just NE of the Leewards (nothing remarkable here): MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 31.08.2022 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91L ANALYSED POSITION : 15.2N 51.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL912022 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 31.08.2022 0 15.2N 51.1W 1009 24 0000UTC 01.09.2022 12 16.2N 51.5W 1009 22 1200UTC 01.09.2022 24 17.1N 53.2W 1008 25 0000UTC 02.09.2022 36 17.5N 55.3W 1008 23 1200UTC 02.09.2022 48 17.8N 57.5W 1009 26 0000UTC 03.09.2022 60 18.1N 59.8W 1009 26 1200UTC 03.09.2022 72 19.1N 61.6W 1010 28 0000UTC 04.09.2022 84 CEASED TRACKING But this is where it gets interesting. The model keeps it as a trackable surface low that then moves only a little N of due between 72 and 144 hours. That gets the low to a position that is well SW of dynamic model consensus near 21.7N, 75.5 W (just north of E Cuba) then moving due west: look between the "A" and the "L" of pivotal on the lower right corner of the map posted above by @ineedsnow . Again, it is likely way out to lunch (UKMET sometimes is way left of reality/other models), but it is being noted for the record as this is still not yet set in stone. Consider how much the 12Z Euro slowed down vs the 0Z Euro, for example. Also, as noted above, the 12Z CMC slowed a lot, too, fwiw. a few 12z EPS members are interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 31, 2022 Share Posted August 31, 2022 12 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: a few 12z EPS members are interesting There are a couple. However, even those couple are well over 100 miles E of the 12Z UKMET position at hour 144. So, UK remains a pretty extreme left outlier as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 1, 2022 Share Posted September 1, 2022 5 hours ago, GaWx said: There are a couple. However, even those couple are well over 100 miles E of the 12Z UKMET position at hour 144. So, UK remains a pretty extreme left outlier as of now. Looks like there a couple that do loops ala Jeanne or Betsy. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 1, 2022 Share Posted September 1, 2022 1 hour ago, cptcatz said: Looks like there a couple that do loops ala Jeanne or Betsy. The 18Z UKMET is 100 miles SW of the 12Z run when it ends at hour 60 right over the Leewards. Also, the 18Z Euro at 90 is 100 miles SW of the 12Z Euro at 96. Edit: The 18Z EPS mean also shifted 100 miles SW. Three members go over PR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 1, 2022 Author Share Posted September 1, 2022 33 minutes ago, GaWx said: The 18Z UKMET is 100 miles SW of the 12Z run when it ends at hour 60 right over the Leewards. Also, the 18Z Euro at 90 is 100 miles SW of the 12Z Euro at 96. Edit: The 18Z EPS mean also shifted 100 miles SW. Three members go over PR I didn’t even know there was an 18z Ukie lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 1, 2022 Share Posted September 1, 2022 19 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I didn’t even know there was an 18z Ukie lol. The map was posted at Storm2K by a subscriber to weather.us. Otherwise, I wouldn't have been able to see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 1, 2022 Author Share Posted September 1, 2022 What a middling underperformer 91L has been. Models have no idea what to do with it. Low level recon in now and still finding a disorganized mess so far. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 1, 2022 Author Share Posted September 1, 2022 I’d take the odds down for this one to be honest to 40/60. Sure, it may develop eventually and become the second hurricane of the season (good for my forecast) but there’s very little to inspire confidence that such a solution is truly viable given the complete inability thus far to build a basic TC structure let alone structure for intensification. It’s a legitimate question whether this even survives to the Antilles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted September 1, 2022 Share Posted September 1, 2022 Still spitting out outflow boundaries due to dry air. Usually not a sign of imminent organization. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 1, 2022 Share Posted September 1, 2022 5 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: What a middling underperformer 91L has been. Models have no idea what to do with it. Low level recon in now and still finding a disorganized mess so far. Cmc with a 3000 mile shift. What a crap model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 1, 2022 Share Posted September 1, 2022 4 minutes ago, shaggy said: Cmc with a 3000 mile shift. What a crap model. It does show what could happen if it stays disorganized, which it looks like it will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 1, 2022 Share Posted September 1, 2022 25 minutes ago, shaggy said: Cmc with a 3000 mile shift. What a crap model. CMC is getting on board with Euro/EPS and UKMET. Maybe it's just my wishcasting but if this thing stays a mess until the Bahamas, it could come close to CONUS. This could actually be a very similar origin story as Katrina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 1, 2022 Author Share Posted September 1, 2022 22 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: It does show what could happen if it stays disorganized, which it looks like it will. Yeah, I guess that’s something to keep in mind. Perhaps it stays so moribund that whatever’s left of it misses the trough completely and needs to wait for another ride…or the death blow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 1, 2022 Share Posted September 1, 2022 26 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Yeah, I guess that’s something to keep in mind. Perhaps it stays so moribund that whatever’s left of it misses the trough completely and needs to wait for another ride…or the death blow. Yeah, would be wild if after this it ends up threading the needle and developing after staying weak through the Bahamas and ends up impacting the East Coast. Ensembles show the weaker solutions heading that direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 1, 2022 Share Posted September 1, 2022 51 minutes ago, cptcatz said: CMC is getting on board with Euro/EPS and UKMET. Maybe it's just my wishcasting but if this thing stays a mess until the Bahamas, it could come close to CONUS. This could actually be a very similar origin story as Katrina. The 12Z UKMET has a weak low in the Bahamas moving NW and looking to recurve offshore the SE US per the H5 map. This is a significant shift eastward vs prior UKMET runs that had it way down near Cuba moving W to WNW and thus is an expected correction toward the model consensus. Of course, the model consensus, itself, has shifted westward. So, they're coming together toward the middle like often happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 1, 2022 Share Posted September 1, 2022 Euro coming in still further to the south. Will be interesting to see where it ends up on this run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 1, 2022 Author Share Posted September 1, 2022 Recon is about a thousand feet off the decks trying to see if this one even has a pulse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 1, 2022 Share Posted September 1, 2022 Euro keeping it weak which makes it a threat down the line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 1, 2022 Author Share Posted September 1, 2022 Hmm…it’ll be interesting to see if the ensembles follow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 1, 2022 Author Share Posted September 1, 2022 EPS isn’t buying the op at 12z 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 2, 2022 Share Posted September 2, 2022 This thing looks fantastic tonight compared to the last two days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 2, 2022 Share Posted September 2, 2022 3 hours ago, Floydbuster said: This thing looks fantastic tonight compared to the last two days. Gfs still takes this way ots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 2, 2022 Share Posted September 2, 2022 Cmc recurves it earlier than 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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