Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    23Yankee
    Newest Member
    23Yankee
    Joined

Hurricane Earl


WxWatcher007
 Share

Recommended Posts

0Z UKMET is a little SSE of the 12Z, but it weakens it at hour 24 and doesn't bring it back like it did on the 12Z:


   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91L        ANALYSED POSITION : 15.1N  50.0W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL912022

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    0000UTC 31.08.2022    0  15.1N  50.0W     1008            26
    1200UTC 31.08.2022   12  15.3N  50.8W     1009            25
    0000UTC 01.09.2022   24              CEASED TRACKING

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, GaWx said:

0Z UKMET is a little SSE of the 12Z, but it weakens it at hour 24 and doesn't bring it back like it did on the 12Z:


   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91L        ANALYSED POSITION : 15.1N  50.0W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL912022

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    0000UTC 31.08.2022    0  15.1N  50.0W     1008            26
    1200UTC 31.08.2022   12  15.3N  50.8W     1009            25
    0000UTC 01.09.2022   24              CEASED TRACKING

Looks better tonight on the northern end. Consensus still has it hit the breaks and turn sharply OTS.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's trying.

That's about all I can say. The deep convection last night has waned, but according to a (training lol) mission from recon it looks like there's at least a weak mid-level center that convection is trying to fire around. This one is really middling along, but it should develop in more favorable conditions, even if it takes a few more days. 

giphy.gif?cid=790b761107b9f81e8b6efeedf4

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

12z ukie 

sfcwind_mslp.conus.png

The 12Z UKMET is either totally out to lunch (likely) or else 91L could possibly become a legit concern for the CONUS.

 First, here's the text output showing "ceased tracking" at hour 84 while then moving WNW just NE of the Leewards (nothing remarkable here):

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 31.08.2022

   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91L        ANALYSED POSITION : 15.2N  51.1W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL912022

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 31.08.2022    0  15.2N  51.1W     1009            24
    0000UTC 01.09.2022   12  16.2N  51.5W     1009            22
    1200UTC 01.09.2022   24  17.1N  53.2W     1008            25
    0000UTC 02.09.2022   36  17.5N  55.3W     1008            23
    1200UTC 02.09.2022   48  17.8N  57.5W     1009            26
    0000UTC 03.09.2022   60  18.1N  59.8W     1009            26
    1200UTC 03.09.2022   72  19.1N  61.6W     1010            28
    0000UTC 04.09.2022   84              CEASED TRACKING

 But this is where it gets interesting. The model keeps it as a trackable surface low that then moves only a little N of due between 72 and 144 hours. That gets the low to a position that is well SW of dynamic model consensus near 21.7N, 75.5 W (just north of E Cuba) then moving due west: look between the "A" and the "L" of pivotal on the lower right corner of the map posted above by @ineedsnow . Again, it is likely way out to lunch (UKMET sometimes is way left of reality/other models), but it is being noted for the record as this is still not yet set in stone. Consider how much the 12Z Euro slowed down vs the 0Z Euro, for example. Also, as noted above, the 12Z CMC slowed a lot, too, fwiw.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, GaWx said:

The 12Z UKMET is either totally out to lunch (likely) or else 91L could possibly become a legit concern for the CONUS.

 First, here's the text output showing "ceased tracking" at hour 84 while then moving WNW just NE of the Leewards (nothing remarkable here):

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 31.08.2022

   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91L        ANALYSED POSITION : 15.2N  51.1W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL912022

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 31.08.2022    0  15.2N  51.1W     1009            24
    0000UTC 01.09.2022   12  16.2N  51.5W     1009            22
    1200UTC 01.09.2022   24  17.1N  53.2W     1008            25
    0000UTC 02.09.2022   36  17.5N  55.3W     1008            23
    1200UTC 02.09.2022   48  17.8N  57.5W     1009            26
    0000UTC 03.09.2022   60  18.1N  59.8W     1009            26
    1200UTC 03.09.2022   72  19.1N  61.6W     1010            28
    0000UTC 04.09.2022   84              CEASED TRACKING

 But this is where it gets interesting. The model keeps it as a trackable surface low that then moves only a little N of due between 72 and 144 hours. That gets the low to a position that is well SW of dynamic model consensus near 21.7N, 75.5 W (just north of E Cuba) then moving due west: look between the "A" and the "L" of pivotal on the lower right corner of the map posted above by @ineedsnow . Again, it is likely way out to lunch (UKMET sometimes is way left of reality/other models), but it is being noted for the record as this is still not yet set in stone. Consider how much the 12Z Euro slowed down vs the 0Z Euro, for example. Also, as noted above, the 12Z CMC slowed a lot, too, fwiw.

a few 12z EPS members are interesting

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

a few 12z EPS members are interesting

 There are a couple. However, even those couple are well over 100 miles E of the 12Z UKMET position at hour 144. So, UK remains a pretty extreme left outlier as of now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, GaWx said:

 There are a couple. However, even those couple are well over 100 miles E of the 12Z UKMET position at hour 144. So, UK remains a pretty extreme left outlier as of now.

Looks like there a couple that do loops ala Jeanne or Betsy.

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, cptcatz said:

Looks like there a couple that do loops ala Jeanne or Betsy.

 

 The 18Z UKMET is 100 miles SW of the 12Z run when it ends at hour 60 right over the Leewards. Also, the 18Z Euro at 90 is 100 miles SW of the 12Z Euro at 96.

Edit: The 18Z EPS mean also shifted 100 miles SW. Three members go over PR

Link to comment
Share on other sites

33 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The 18Z UKMET is 100 miles SW of the 12Z run when it ends at hour 60 right over the Leewards. Also, the 18Z Euro at 90 is 100 miles SW of the 12Z Euro at 96.

Edit: The 18Z EPS mean also shifted 100 miles SW. Three members go over PR

I didn’t even know there was an 18z Ukie lol. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I’d take the odds down for this one to be honest to 40/60. 

Sure, it may develop eventually and become the second hurricane of the season (good for my forecast) but there’s very little to inspire confidence that such a solution is truly viable given the complete inability thus far to build a basic TC structure let alone structure for intensification.

It’s a legitimate question whether this even survives to the Antilles. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

25 minutes ago, shaggy said:

Cmc with a 3000 mile shift. What a crap model.

CMC is getting on board with Euro/EPS and UKMET.  Maybe it's just my wishcasting but if this thing stays a mess until the Bahamas, it could come close to CONUS.  This could actually be a very similar origin story as Katrina.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It does show what could happen if it stays disorganized, which it looks like it will.

Yeah, I guess that’s something to keep in mind. Perhaps it stays so moribund that whatever’s left of it misses the trough completely and needs to wait for another ride…or the death blow. :lol: 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

26 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah, I guess that’s something to keep in mind. Perhaps it stays so moribund that whatever’s left of it misses the trough completely and needs to wait for another ride…or the death blow. :lol: 

Yeah, would be wild if after this it ends up threading the needle and developing after staying weak through the Bahamas and ends up impacting the East Coast. Ensembles show the weaker solutions heading that direction 

91L_gefs_latest.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

51 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

CMC is getting on board with Euro/EPS and UKMET.  Maybe it's just my wishcasting but if this thing stays a mess until the Bahamas, it could come close to CONUS.  This could actually be a very similar origin story as Katrina.

The 12Z UKMET has a weak low in the Bahamas moving NW and looking to recurve offshore the SE US per the H5 map. This is a significant shift eastward vs prior UKMET runs that had it way down near Cuba moving W to WNW and thus is an expected correction toward the model consensus. Of course, the model consensus, itself, has shifted westward. So, they're coming together toward the middle like often happens.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...