Hurricane Earl

[MJO812]

Euro is very weak with this while the gfs strengthens this in the Atlantic. 

[NorthHillsWx]

After watching this for days, I am inclined to side with the EURO/UK solutions showing a much weaker cyclone. Other guidance has repeatedly tried to develop this system too quickly and up to this point the EURO has handled its evolution the best

[WxWatcher007]

I agree. It has tried and failed, numerous times, to organize. It looks like it’s trying again this morning so we’ll see what recon finds later. 

[olafminesaw]

I believe it has been 5 full days since the NHC gave this a 70% chance of development through day 5. I feel like this has to be approaching longest lived cherry and it may never develope

[NorthHillsWx]

29 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

I believe it has been 5 full days since the NHC gave this a 70% chance of development through day 5. I feel like this has to be approaching longest lived cherry and it may never develope

The “A” storm this year was a cherry/PTC for a very long time 

Seasons been a struggle for everything except Danielle 

[WxWatcher007]

Recon en route again to see if there’s any organization.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

I see a now naked swirl to the NW of the main blob, and dry air induced outflow boundaries.  I suppose they could call it a TC, but it'd be one ugly TC.

[Rhino16]

Does the second blob add anything interesting to this, or will it likely just dissipate?

[MJO812]

Ukie is very weak

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Ukie is very weak

 Yeah, the 12Z UKMET doesn't have it redevelop into a new TC like the 0Z. although it does keep it as a weak surface low as your image shows. Interestingly, the 12Z is back to being far to the south as opposed to being up into the Bahamas in a recurve position with it now moving due west from 65W to 75W to the N coast of E Cuba at the end of the run (144). This position is similar to the 12Z Wed run's 144 but obviously moving much more slowly since it is near the 144 hour position of the run from 48 hours ago.

 The 12Z 132 hour UKMET position is 100 miles SW of the 0Z 144 and is moving slowly due west as opposed to moving NW like it was on the 0Z run. Of course, with it once again being a SW outlier by several hundred miles again, it could easily be off obviously and that would be the best bet right now. Sometimes the UKMET has a far left bias. We'll see.

 But if it isn't off and if its very weak low stays intact, this is implying it could eventually (say in 8-10+ days) become a Gulf problem.

 

 

[WxWatcher007]

It’s still messy, but the 12z Euro tries to organize this into what I’m guessing is a depression this weekend. Not sure if it’ll pull the plug later in the model run though.

[WxWatcher007]

Based on visible imagery, and the latest set of recon observations, it looks like there is a very weak low level center.

That said, this still looks very disorganized and maybe not quite worthy of a designation yet. 
 

edit: I’m probably too generous. Let’s call it a low level swirl  

[GaWx]

 The 12Z model consensus, including the Euro, says the US is going to be safe from this. This means that the 12Z UKMET moving due west way on down near Cuba is an extreme SW outlier and thus likely wrong like usually is the case when it is a far SW outlier. But if it were to somehow not be wrong, then obviously everything changes and even the Gulf could have a problem. Only a small chance obviously.

[GaWx]

 The 12Z EPS says hold your beer, we can't yet give the all clear to the US as 20% of members do not recurve safely, which is a big increase and is thus the most threatening EPS in a long time. It actually even has about 10% of its members (half the threats) way down SW near the 12Z UKMET!

[WxWatcher007]

It took forever, but there’s enough for recon to do a center fix. This one is on the cusp of becoming a depression. 

[WxWatcher007]

Nothing impressive at the surface, but recon is finding higher FL winds. 

[MJO812]

Gfs is still adjusting south

[WxWatcher007]

Recon confirming that this is now extremely close to being a depression if not already one. Latest center fix puts it closer to the deeper convection.

Still fragile, but likely already a TC imo. 

NHC wants to see this persist per the special discussion and I don’t blame them. Organizational attempts have collapsed numerous times thus far. 

[WxWatcher007]

91L is making a run to be our next named storm.

Vortex message has SFMR at 38kts with a max FL wind of 44kts. Likely a minimal TS with that report—though again, the NHC may stay conservative here and wait until 11 to see if this persists. 

[WxWatcher007]

Not the best organization, but it looks like a TS to me. 

[cptcatz]

Just a little note: recon found the center south of 18N while the NHC and all the models had at north of 18N. Wonder if that will change anything. 

[GaWx]

8 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

Just a little note: recon found the center south of 18N while the NHC and all the models had at north of 18N. Wonder if that will change anything. 

 But they also found it ~half a degree to the east. Probably a wash.

[GaWx]

 The 18Z EPS suggests that the wider 12Z EPS spread was a bit of a fluke because the 18Z has gone back to a narrower spread with fewer US threats at 144 vs 12Z at 150.

[NorthHillsWx]

This things either wide right or a band of showers heading through the Florida straights. Lotta digging going on to make this a threat 

[WxWatcher007]

Give me a wide right hurricane. 

Took it long enough to pull itself together.

[uofmiami]

 

[WxWatcher007]

 

[Floydbuster]

I still think Earl could become a hurricane after five days as it moves further north.

[GaWx]

Now that it strengthened, 0Z UKMET has gone way to the right of recent runs. This suggests that had it stayed weak, it could have been more of a danger to hit the US.

[WxWatcher007]

5 hours ago, GaWx said:

Now that it strengthened, 0Z UKMET has gone way to the right of recent runs. This suggests that had it stayed weak, it could have been more of a danger to hit the US.

Was a little surprised by the spread in the EPS overnight.