Hurricane Earl

[WxWatcher007]

Recon is making a SW to NE pass. 

[NorthHillsWx]

5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Recon is making a SW to NE pass. 

This should be a great pass to see current intensity. First impression: this is a huge hurricane. That’s a very broad area of near-hurricane force winds!

[Prismshine Productions]

960.5

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[Prismshine Productions]

Looking at the recon FL wind plot, almost looks like a EWRC

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[NorthHillsWx]

Winds will catch up to these pressure falls but it will take time. This is a very broad circulation. Perhaps ingesting that dry air led to the giant eye seen. Will take Earl longer than normal to increase wind speeds, I’m thinking the chance of a cat 4 is decreasing just purely based on the storm’s current structure 

[Radtechwxman]

Was not expecting it to weaken. Esp based on satellite presentation. Best it has looked. I'm shocked. Though last few frames not as impressive as it was earlier. 

[WxWatcher007]

These systems are fascinating. It intensified in high shear and weakened (a bit) when shear relaxed. Probably related to the earlier dry air intrusion and expanded wind field as @NorthHillsWxsaid.

[Radtechwxman]

4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

These systems are fascinating. It intensified in high shear and weakened (a bit) when shear relaxed. Probably related to the earlier dry air intrusion and expanded wind field as @NorthHillsWxsaid.

Definitely think the dry air intrusion was the fly in the ointment today otherwise we would have a major hurricane by now. But it does seem that Earl may be one of those hurricanes whose dropping pressure correlates more to expanding wind field instead of strengthening winds. But it is kind of funny how it strengthened more in stronger shear. 

[Newman]

Here is the current Bermuda radar at 2137 UTC

[hawkeye_wx]

Yeah, that pocket of dry air never allowed the core to get that real pretty look we like to see.  It did well to drop to about 960 mb.

[Radtechwxman]

Earl looking rough right now. That dry air did a number on the inner core. This may never hit major hurricane status now. Crazy

[Chinook]

Earl had some sort of a disruption (Eyewall replacement cycle?) as it passed closest Bermuda at roughly 03z. Bermuda's airport had wind gusts up to 41 knots. Now, the eye has undergone some changes. At the time of this image, it looks like the eye is a heart-shape

last night NHC discussion

Quote

ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
Hurricane Earl Discussion Number  25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062022
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 08 2022
 
The satellite and airborne radar presentation of Earl has continued
to degrade this evening.  The eye has expanded to 50 n mi wide,
become more ragged in appearance, and is open to the south.  A NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating the system has only found
peak flight-level winds of 89 kt and surface wind measurements of 75
kt.  The minimum central pressure has also risen to a reported 964
mb.  Based on these data and accounting for potential undersampling 
of the wind field, the initial intensity has been lowered to 80 kt 
on this advisory cycle.
 
...

 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1.  Although Earl's center is forecast to pass southeast of Bermuda,
tropical-storm-force winds are expected on the island tonight into
tomorrow morning.

 

new discussion

Quote

Hurricane Earl Discussion Number  26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062022
500 AM AST Fri Sep 09 2022

Radar data from Bermuda and conventional satellite images show that 
Earl's structure has improved a bit overnight with the eye becoming 
better defined and the overall cloud envelope looking more 
symmetric.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft measured 
a peak 700-mb flight-level wind of 97 kt and SFMR winds as high as 
77 kt, with the central pressure down slightly to 963 mb.  Based on 
the typical reduction of the flight-level winds, and accounting for 
undersampling of the surface winds, Earl's initial intensity is 
raised back to 85 kt.  Reconnaissance and scatterometer data also 
indicate that Earl's wind field has continued to expand.

...

 

[NorthHillsWx]

On 9/6/2022 at 11:39 AM, NorthHillsWx said:

I just want to mention that Earl is far from a lock to become a MH. It has a VERY short window to attain major status, will be doing so at an unusually high latitude to support a major, and will need several complex interactions in a quasi favorable environment for this to happen. I think the storm becomes a strong hurricane but I would expect guidance to tick down a few notches before earl gets into its intensifying phase, due to a complex upper level environment and marginal SSTs and shear conditions. 

I should’ve stuck with my original assessment 

[WxWatcher007]

25 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I should’ve stuck with my original assessment 

Another underperformer 

[Amped]

Earl looks the best it has so far.   90kt 954mb latest estimate, and it might still be improving, so cat3 not out of reach.