Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,173
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Michael Butler
    Newest Member
    Michael Butler
    Joined

August 2022 General Discussion


Hoosier
 Share

Recommended Posts

The locals and NWS should just stop forecasting anything above low 90s for us at this point.  Today's forecast was mid 90s, but we aren't even getting out of the 80s.  Wednesday has been wildly over-forecasted for a week.  The NWS actually had 105º in my forecast for Wednesday late last week.  That is a dust bowl temp, nearly impossible to achieve today.  It now appears we'll be lucky to get out of the 80s again Wednesday.  I see the NWS has upper 90s in the forecast, yet again, for Saturday.  Low 90s is much more likely.

  • Haha 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

57 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The locals and NWS should just stop forecasting anything above low 90s for us at this point.  Today's forecast was mid 90s, but we aren't even getting out of the 80s.  Wednesday has been wildly over-forecasted for a week.  The NWS actually had 105º in my forecast for Wednesday late last week.  That is a dust bowl temp, nearly impossible to achieve today.  It now appears we'll be lucky to get out of the 80s again Wednesday.  I see the NWS has upper 90s in the forecast, yet again, for Saturday.  Low 90s is much more likely.

I'm not saying you're wrong, but it's shocking that that would be forecast that far out.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I'm not saying you're wrong, but it's shocking that that would be forecast that far out.

Yeah, I was pretty shocked as well.  All I could think is the forecast is computer generated and they didn't bother human-tweaking it.  Over several days the forecast went from 105 to 101 to 99 to 96 to low 90s, and now upper 80s.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looks problematic to reach my numbers for tomorrow.  When I put it out last week, it was based on the assumption of not having to deal with extensive clouds/precip in the afternoon.  I think it'd get close if there were unobstructed heating through 2-3 pm, but that looks very doubtful at this point.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Tomorrow night, CAM models show numerous thunderstorms will happen in the area from Chicago to lower Michigan. The 12km NAM shows 4000 J/kg of CAPE along with the 90 temperature, 76 dew point in Michigan before the storms. The shear values should be in the upper 20's knots or maybe a bit better. That's marginal for severe storms, unless the 500mb winds somehow get a little stronger.

 

QIaDsox.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It was still 90F with a dew point of 75F in Minneapolis as of 9:50pm. Crazy stuff.

2nd summer in a row here with severe drought. Plants and some trees that aren’t getting supplemental water are showing signs of stress. MCS out in western Minnesota is giving me a little hope this evening. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Heat indices still in the upper 90s to near 100 from central MN into western WI as of 10pm which is pretty impressive.

Lawn has really browned up over the past few weeks.  Looks like tomorrow's rains will skip over this area.  The mower is going to get a good long break it appears.  Luckily the area crops have had a great growing season up until recently, so the ongoing dry spell shouldn't matter at all at this late in the growing season.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

27 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

only real heads keep posting during these summer doldrums, don't even have a background hurricane to track

 

been doin it since about 1968. Only difference, it's no longer a NOAA weather radio(which I played on loop for hours) driving everyone crazy, or TWC back in late 80's(people would ask who watches that channel for hours on end?), and now it's source overload due to the internet feeding the addiction. BTW...does that guy on the NOAA weather radio ever age, exact same voice today? 

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just short of 7" of rain and the best thunderstorms of the season over the last couple of days. Drought cancel here. ILX NWS office had some entertaining wording in their discussion this morning. Something about the "Champaign county desert region" finally getting some rain. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

looking forward to this weekend's thunderstorms, with a chance of severe, and then the cooler weather settling in for early next week.   This semi-permanent roller coaster has been enjoyable

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...