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EPS has a warmer than average pattern into early September. Matches up with the near record NW Atlantic SSTs. So this could be a preview of the fall pattern like we have seen in recent years. 

FFD745C6-9206-415D-AEF4-BA6E5E09E7FA.thumb.png.9b783845f061457f3a42387b15111969.png
 

CAC76495-C934-4B65-AD46-D071FAA5B96E.thumb.png.817ed528b693135c1817b5e6e4cb29c9.png

7BE054F9-1A0E-4C32-B962-7295C17FF480.thumb.png.6f4b0ab09a3615c91102e163379feba9.png

9A74C4F4-4CE4-4EC2-82FD-B97D3DF2F840.thumb.png.63f5d65ed5dfde533024da5a8c6c1be5.png

 

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11 hours ago, gravitylover said:

So many things are dying but the weeds are looking pretty strong :axe:

Even crab grass here hasn't been growing too strong.   Although those damn locusts trees pop out of nowhere.  Ill look away for 5 minutes, then see one that's 18 inches high growing in middle of lawn.   I use a 7iron and practice my divot taking to rid of these weeds

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

EPS has a warmer than average pattern into early September. Matches up with the near record NW Atlantic SSTs. So this could be a preview of the fall pattern like we have seen in recent years. 

FFD745C6-9206-415D-AEF4-BA6E5E09E7FA.thumb.png.9b783845f061457f3a42387b15111969.png
 

CAC76495-C934-4B65-AD46-D071FAA5B96E.thumb.png.817ed528b693135c1817b5e6e4cb29c9.png

7BE054F9-1A0E-4C32-B962-7295C17FF480.thumb.png.6f4b0ab09a3615c91102e163379feba9.png

9A74C4F4-4CE4-4EC2-82FD-B97D3DF2F840.thumb.png.63f5d65ed5dfde533024da5a8c6c1be5.png

 

Is this the default from now on or will we ever have something else

I'm guessing this is the norm 

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This morning the temperature fell to 62° in New York City's Central Park. That was the coolest reading since June 23 when the thermometer registered 61°. Under bright sunshine, the temperature rebounded into the middle 80s and upper 80s during the afternoon. Newark reached 90°.

Tomorrow will be a very warm day. Many parts of the region could approach or reach 90°. Another cooler air mass could move into the region Saturday night or Sunday.

Much of the second half of August could see above to much above normal temperatures in the Pacific Northwest.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast.

In addition, in the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures. The August ECMWF forecast shows a warmer than normal September in the Northeast. This warmth would be consistent with the ongoing warming that has been occurring in September.

On August 18, the SOI fell to -32.90. Since 1991, there were 8 cases when the SOI fell to -30 or below during the August 10-25 period. That outcome has often preceded a wetter than normal September in parts of the Northeast. Mean September rainfall figures for those 8 cases: Boston: 4.38" (normal: 3.55"); New York City: 5.08" (normal: 4.31"); and, Philadelphia: 5.12" (normal: 4.40"). Very wet years outnumbered very dry ones by a 2:1 ratio in Boston and 3:1 ratio in both New York City and Philadelphia. 63% of cases saw at least one day with 1" or more rainfall in Boston. 88% saw at least one day with 1" or more in New York City and Philadelphia. 50% of those cases saw at least one day with 2" or more daily rainfall in Philadelphia. In sum, the SOI may be offering a signal that there will be some drought relief for the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England regions in September.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around August 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.90°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.77°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall.

The SOI was -32.90 today. That was the lowest figure since June 20, 2020 when the SOI was -33.95.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.885 today.

On August 16 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.227 (RMM). The August 15-adjusted amplitude was 0.070 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 84% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 78.0° (1.9° above normal).

 

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3 hours ago, nyrangers1022 said:

Even crab grass here hasn't been growing too strong.   Although those damn locusts trees pop out of nowhere.  Ill look away for 5 minutes, then see one that's 18 inches high growing in middle of lawn.   I use a 7iron and practice my divot taking to rid of these weeds

black locust makes good furniture

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Seems like skies are clear enough to see the Aurora Borealis.      Any one seeing any hint of it?       Need to be away from city lights.          I actually vaguely remember the 1957 demonstration which had cascading pulses looking like the inside of a defective florescent bulb.

isepa_.gif

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11 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Is this the default from now on or will we ever have something else

I'm guessing this is the norm 

It has been the default pattern since the super El Niño in 15-16. But it shifted this summer. The drought and heat ridge over the Plains this summer was different from the typical WAR pattern. More 100° heat and less rain. The Atlantic ridge shifted over closer to England giving them the all-time record heat. Now the return of the WAR may allow for better rainfall chances. 
 

With the La Niña, it raises questions for the winter forecast. A big ridge sitting east of New England will continue the warmer winter pattern that has been in place since 15-16. But the snowfall will come down to how much blocking we get. We got both in 20-21 as blocking was more south based. 
 

Plains ridge dominated during the summer

F268FF24-4284-4502-A538-0C5FE0BDCA0F.gif.52eb6c22173c4f79b14bffe8baa30870.gif
 

Ridge east of New England returns and possibly better rainfall potential 

36328D5C-DE87-4BD4-805F-ABB02AC0E9AB.thumb.png.76a8046d30b298283c75f634a181dda1.png

EA0A4B20-A6EE-47C1-BD1C-79E0169CDBD6.thumb.png.faa3bec63824b449adfacad28f6af86e.png

 

 

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The next 8 days are averaging  81degs.(74/89) or +5.5.

Month to date is  79.2[+2.4].         Should be  79.7[+3.5] by the 27th.

Reached 82 here yesterday.

Today:   88-94, wind w. to s., clouds late

Rain amounts down----T's are up.        HS remains moribund.      No named storm (or cloud formation ala Collin) this month?

1661731200-D4eudFVCPzU.png

72*(65%RH) here at 7am.       75* at 9am.        79* at Noon.      80* at 12:30pm.     Just 79* or 80* all PM from 12:30-4:00!      Reached 81* at 6pm.          77* at 10pm.

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This year will rank high on the top 10 list for 90° days in NJ. Several stations from CNJ to NNJ already surpassed 40 days. It’s the seasonal average for BWI in Maryland. 
 

Data for January 1, 2022 through August 19, 2022
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Name
Station Type
Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 
NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 41
Newark Area ThreadEx 41
HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 40
SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 40
FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 39
SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 37
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13 hours ago, bluewave said:

EPS has a warmer than average pattern into early September. Matches up with the near record NW Atlantic SSTs. So this could be a preview of the fall pattern like we have seen in recent years. 

FFD745C6-9206-415D-AEF4-BA6E5E09E7FA.thumb.png.9b783845f061457f3a42387b15111969.png
 

CAC76495-C934-4B65-AD46-D071FAA5B96E.thumb.png.817ed528b693135c1817b5e6e4cb29c9.png

7BE054F9-1A0E-4C32-B962-7295C17FF480.thumb.png.6f4b0ab09a3615c91102e163379feba9.png

9A74C4F4-4CE4-4EC2-82FD-B97D3DF2F840.thumb.png.63f5d65ed5dfde533024da5a8c6c1be5.png

 

If the humidity stays low as it has been, it will feel nicer and cooler than recent Septembers

 

 

66F this morning. Another morning with windows open, comfortably sitting outside…without my friends the bugs!

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Morning thoughts…

It will be partly sunny and very warm. High temperatures will reach the upper 80s and lower 90s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 89°

Newark: 92°

Philadelphia: 91°

After another very warm day tomorrow, somewhat cooler air will arrive to conclude the weekend.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 83.2°; 15-Year: 83.0°

Newark: 30-Year: 84.5°; 15-Year: 84.6°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 85.6°; 15-Year: 85.4°

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24 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

If the humidity stays low as it has been, it will feel nicer and cooler than recent Septembers

 

 

66F this morning. Another morning with windows open, comfortably sitting outside…without my friends the bugs!

We’ll need the 70s dewpoints and tropical PWATS to enhance the rainfall potential on Monday. 
 

99098750-74D6-4917-8FBF-62DC0A88D78C.thumb.png.c57ad7d346acdffb7a6361c07dd739e0.png


D9BBFB5C-6868-44C0-85F4-76527F516AEB.thumb.png.9a34535a598fd01a16090a546a0ad40c.png

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It’s really fascinating how locked in some patterns have become since 2016. 

Bluewave, do you think we’ll see the return of the “cold November warm to very warm December?” 
 

I’m not reviewing any data at the moment but my recollection is that we’ve had several cool to cold Novembers in that timeframe, and I remember several forecasters going all in on a very cold December last year after the cool Nov only to be busted by incredible Dec warmth. Again. 
 

I have to go back to Hunga Tonga for a second, because it’s the big variable that’s changed since last year. We now know it injected about 10% of the total water vapor that resides in the stratosphere up there in an instant (without the accompany sulphur flux which would counterbalance that and normally cause cooling at this size), and I’m wondering what kinds of influence that may have on the normal ebb and flow of the various oscillations that make up our weather patterns. Of course, water vapor is a greenhouse gas, but I don’t know enough of the physics here to offer anything other than “should warm things up a bit, no?”

IE what I’m asking is basically, do we think this could influence the likelihood of blocking? Or have any forcings on the EPO or PNA, etc? We know Pinatubo affected the jets after 1991 but that was largely from sulphur loading and other particulates that were largely underrepresented in the Hunga Tonga eruption despite its size (all things considered from a climatological perspective this is a unique event in recorded history with the largest observed influx of water vapor at one time into the stratosphere). It also may be influencing some of the things we’re seeing this summer, and I can’t wait to read any retrospective analyses about it.

Aside from all that, I would give anything to get another epic winter of years past, and just my personal gut feeling is that those are quickly becoming extinct. I hope I’m wrong. 

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80 / 54 and on way to low 90s and just a gorgeous summer day, dry and warm and lots of sun.   Sat (8/20) another gem as offshore storm remains well away from the area more upper 80s and low 90s.  Sunday (8/21) flip back to onshore so temps capped a bit.  Next shit at rain is Mon (8/22) and into Tue (8/23) as slow moving front comes through.  Lets see how it pans out 0.75 - 1.00 area wide?  Could be most widespread rains in quite a bit (heard that several times).  

Beyond there Wed (8/24) - Fri (8/26) and into next weekend looks to see more shot at 90s.  Overall warm to hot at times, humid as we have a tendency fo onshore / sotherly flow.  Rain chances should increase, (thats not hard to do from where we are at).

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2 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

If the humidity stays low as it has been, it will feel nicer and cooler than recent Septembers

 

 

66F this morning. Another morning with windows open, comfortably sitting outside…without my friends the bugs!

your normal low is 64

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1 hour ago, Volcanic Winter said:

IE what I’m asking is basically, do we think this could influence the likelihood of blocking? Or have any forcings on the EPO or PNA, etc? We know Pinatubo affected the jets after 1991 but that was largely from sulphur loading and other particulates that were largely underrepresented in the Hunga Tonga eruption despite its size (all things considered from a climatological perspective this is a unique event in recorded history with the largest observed influx of water vapor at one time into the stratosphere). It also may be influencing some of the things we’re seeing this summer, and I can’t wait to read any retrospective analyses about it.

I guess it’s tough to know how the record injection of water vapor into the stratosphere influences blocking without a model study. But the seasonal models are all going for a south based block next winter. The caveat is that the long range blocking forecasts can be low skill. Maybe they are keying in on that record warm pool across the North Atlantic and putting the ridge there.

 

 

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2 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

It’s really fascinating how locked in some patterns have become since 2016. 

Bluewave, do you think we’ll see the return of the “cold November warm to very warm December?” 
 

I’m not reviewing any data at the moment but my recollection is that we’ve had several cool to cold Novembers in that timeframe, and I remember several forecasters going all in on a very cold December last year after the cool Nov only to be busted by incredible Dec warmth. Again. 
 

I have to go back to Hunga Tonga for a second, because it’s the big variable that’s changed since last year. We now know it injected about 10% of the total water vapor that resides in the stratosphere up there in an instant (without the accompany sulphur flux which would counterbalance that and normally cause cooling at this size), and I’m wondering what kinds of influence that may have on the normal ebb and flow of the various oscillations that make up our weather patterns. Of course, water vapor is a greenhouse gas, but I don’t know enough of the physics here to offer anything other than “should warm things up a bit, no?”

IE what I’m asking is basically, do we think this could influence the likelihood of blocking? Or have any forcings on the EPO or PNA, etc? We know Pinatubo affected the jets after 1991 but that was largely from sulphur loading and other particulates that were largely underrepresented in the Hunga Tonga eruption despite its size (all things considered from a climatological perspective this is a unique event in recorded history with the largest observed influx of water vapor at one time into the stratosphere). It also may be influencing some of the things we’re seeing this summer, and I can’t wait to read any retrospective analyses about it.

Aside from all that, I would give anything to get another epic winter of years past, and just my personal gut feeling is that those are quickly becoming extinct. I hope I’m wrong. 

Experts says it will contribute to a short term injection of heat on the earth, though how long isn't totally known but they say it could say several years.  Before things go back to normalcy. 

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Yeah, it’s sort of uncharted territory. Many eruptions eject water (Pinatubo notwithstanding), but what HTHH put up there is unprecedented. 
 

Basic physics suggest some degree of warming in the absence of the volcanic particulates that normally cause cooling at large quantities. 
 

I’m just wondering how it may impact, influence, or otherwise “force” the overall patterns into one direction or another. I guess that’s not something we generally know, owing to the rarity of this type of event. 
 

Volcanic Winters are already uncommon, though not exactly rare (in recent times at least 1-2 per century, sometimes quite a few more including smaller magnitude events).  
 

A “Volcanic Summer” is entirely uncharted territory, outside of ancient flood basalt eruptions that are orders of magnitude larger than anything in historic times that contribute to runaway warming from CO2 over hundreds of thousands of years (such as the Permian Mass Extinction / Siberian Traps). That’s something else entirely though. 
 

It’s intriguing though, at least for me (as the forum’s resident volcanophile with a healthy interest in their potential climate impacts). 

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