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August Discussion/Obs


weatherwiz
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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Seriously though. Get after it this weekend. Beach, pond, Ginxy’s pool full of poo.....whatever it is enjoy. 

Oh everyone has been after it. House across street has been getting exterior painted all week ..another couple houses down new roof was put on yesterday. I stopped and talked to the guys and they said they waited for the HHH to do the work. Much easier to work in .

 

 

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Was in Newport this week for work. Although humid dews in the mid 70s just can’t compare to Florida where the heat humidity combo is special. Boy is it dry up there as well. Can’t remember seeing so many burnt out lawns and stressed landscape.  At least in Fl the heat humidity combo yields daily TS.

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11 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I didn't get hit hard...just .14" in the gauge and did not lose power...digital clocks still running.

Perhaps a very small area of Methuen got hit hard BUT for the majority of the city it was an ordinary thundershower.  

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17 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That's a bit of an usual modeling scenario ...to have it < 96 hours out, and the operational Euro and GFS vary by 30+ F over S NH a rare circumstance.  

I think we door a bit into BOS by later Tuesday. 

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Seriously though. Get after it this weekend. Beach, pond, Ginxy’s pool full of poo.....whatever it is enjoy. 

They don’t get after it though. Lots of time spent indoors in cool air. I’ve never seen them post pics of them dripping in sweat smiling. 
 

I already played pickup hoops this morning and playing golf later. Wife and kids are going into Manhattan. It’s not my favorite weather but we do things.

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2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Oh everyone has been after it. House across street has been getting exterior painted all week ..another couple houses down new roof was put on yesterday. I stopped and talked to the guys and they said they waited for the HHH to do the work. Much easier to work in .

 

 

Having framed houses in NNJ during peak HHH, I think they're leading you on, unless they like it because it provides a reason for an afternoon beer break.

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You guys are getting baited by the GFS on this BD. The GEFS shows a very weak signal until you get into Maine. And the last run was less a signal than the previous. The EPS is showing a torch, Region-wide. SELL.
 

If you want to hedge, go Winne—north and east. 
 

The WAR is flexing. I believe Tuesday ends up another 95+er, my back yard included.

5D24764F-ADCB-442B-A43A-213D7E92FA4A.png

C32316AE-860C-407A-9B8E-0333E32F9A27.png

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6 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

You guys are getting baited by the GFS on this BD. The GEFS shows a very weak signal until you get into Maine. And the last run was less a signal than the previous. The EPS is showing a torch, Region-wide. SELL.
 

If you want to hedge, go Winne—north and east. 
 

The WAR is flexing. I believe Tuesday ends up another 95+er, my back yard included.

5D24764F-ADCB-442B-A43A-213D7E92FA4A.png

C32316AE-860C-407A-9B8E-0333E32F9A27.png

Even euro shows it. It’s probably more a light Seabreeze vs a door.

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46 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think we door a bit into BOS by later Tuesday. 

I guess...

compromise?  

Longer read for anyone interested:

A glaring difference between these runs is the handling of several synoptic metrics over eastern Ontario thru Quebec from late Sunday through mid week. 

The GFS ends up with a 1026 mb polar high... replete with pooling the size of Texas of DPs in the mid to upper 30s N of Maine by Tuesday morning...

image.png.81774922f09f466b332719e931140db6.png

The Euro does not have nearly that much sfc pressure, nor the pooling - DPs around 50 in that same area.

image.png.120952ebc76ab9d86f45bb8df672d65c.png

So naturally... if the GFS is going to succeed in a 1024+ mb polar high passing through that region ( the Euro does not have) it is not only going to 925 mb a CAD jet into the area, it is going to also pull from that large region of much drier DPs and drill that into an erstwhile raining/convective debris over eastern NH/ME...and there we go.  It's like the GFS is a giant A.C. processor.  It's also odd how the GFS holds the hydrostats so lofty while mixing the BL down to autumnal normals by 18z Tuesday per that 06z run... It's either an exceptionally ( albeit harmless) rare result, or something's amiss

The GFS is suspect to me because it is still deeply within the vegetating boreal summer landscape, below the taiga belt. Whatever processes the GFS thinks will set all that up, its not clear it is enough/how it offsets that continent/evapotran factor, enough to manifest that much dry lower troposphere over Quebec. 

Interesting test.  This could not be more black and white between those two guidance sources.

 

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12 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

You guys are getting baited by the GFS on this BD. The GEFS shows a very weak signal until you get into Maine. And the last run was less a signal than the previous. The EPS is showing a torch, Region-wide. SELL.
 

If you want to hedge, go Winne—north and east. 
 

The WAR is flexing. I believe Tuesday ends up another 95+er, my back yard included.

5D24764F-ADCB-442B-A43A-213D7E92FA4A.png

C32316AE-860C-407A-9B8E-0333E32F9A27.png

No one is being "bated"

We're musing about the differences in the models -that's all... 

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13 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

You guys are getting baited by the GFS on this BD. The GEFS shows a very weak signal until you get into Maine. And the last run was less a signal than the previous. The EPS is showing a torch, Region-wide. SELL.
 

If you want to hedge, go Winne—north and east. 
 

The WAR is flexing. I believe Tuesday ends up another 95+er, my back yard included.

5D24764F-ADCB-442B-A43A-213D7E92FA4A.png

C32316AE-860C-407A-9B8E-0333E32F9A27.png

Wednesday still seems 90+ pike south 

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I guess...

compromise?  

Longer read for anyone interested:

A glaring difference between these runs is the handling of several synoptic metrics over eastern Ontario thru Quebec from late Sunday through mid week. 

The GFS ends up with a 1026 mb polar high... replete with pooling the size of Texas of DPs in the mid to upper 30s N of Maine by Tuesday morning...

image.png.81774922f09f466b332719e931140db6.png

The Euro is does not have nearly that much sfc pressure, nor the pooling - DPs around 50 in that same area.

image.png.120952ebc76ab9d86f45bb8df672d65c.png

So naturally... if the GFS is going to succeed in a 1024+ mb polar high passing through that region ( the Euro does not have) it is not only going to 925 mb a CAD jet into the area, it is going to also going to pull  from that large region of much drier DPs and drill that into a the erstwhile raining/convective debris of eastern NH/ME...and there we go.  It's like the GFS is a giant A.C. processor.  It's also odd how the hydrostats are so lofty. 

The GFS is suspect to me because it is still deeply within the vegetating boreal summer landscape, below the taiga belt. Whatever processes the GFS thinks will set all that up, its not clear it is enough/how it offsets that continent/evapotran factor, enough to manifest that much dry lower troposphere over Quebec. 

Interesting test.  This could not be more black and white between those two guidance sources.

 

I could see NE MA flags turning NE later Tuesday into BOS. Maybe more of a seabreeze deal vs 20Kt NE winds. It’s close. Euro says no, but it’s sort of inching south. 
 

GFS struggles for 60 in SNH. I’ll sell that.

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12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Even euro shows it. It’s probably more a light Seabreeze vs a door.

Would be the first door since early June? And we still haven’t experienced a pattern flip.

 

Let’s see…

 

Early August climo

++ SST anomalies in GOM

Weak signal

cooked soil temps

 

Sell.

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1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

Would be the first door since early June? And we still haven’t experienced a pattern flip.

 

Let’s see…

 

Early August climo

++ SST anomalies 

Weak signal

cooked soil temps

 

Sell.

There is a weak low that develops on front too which helps propel it SW. I think the euro depiction seems plausible. 
 

It’s August, but that is still a hell of a thermal gradient which we know they like and helps accelerate it SW. Although this won’t act like a door in May, I could see later Tuesday and Tuesday night, winds shift more light NE into eastern MA.  I guess we shall see.

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1 hour ago, tamarack said:

Having framed houses in NNJ during peak HHH, I think they're leading you on, unless they like it because it provides a reason for an afternoon beer break.

The majority of contractors who work outdoors hate the heat and humidity.  As you know, heat and humidity makes any job more difficult to do. Having a house painted in hot and humid weather presents several challenges including curing of the paint and the paint properly adhering to the surface.  Perhaps the names of the painters/roofers he spoke with are Moe, Larry, and Curly..

 

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