July 2022

[CIK62]

I guess the motto here becomes---if you do not have AC where you live---just snuggle up close to the ASOS at Belvedere Castle!    

That's Where It's at Man!

Seriously speaking, I have the same problem on my balcony.      While the sun's rays never reach the themometer---a weak PM breeze---allows heat to accumulate there.    Still, I have not made it to 100 this year---just 99 briefly, which I reported as a 96---since it was the most predominate T that PM.      In 2019, I believe it was---99 that was predominate.{yep, same timeline of July 20,21 which together have about 9 of the 59  100-Degree Days in NYC station history}

[bluewave]

26 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

just snuggle up close to the ASOS at Belvedere Castle!    

Too bad their isn’t more room at that spot since it would save many a long trip out to Long Island which has the same temperatures. 

 

July 20th

NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	95
NY	FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP	WBAN	95
NY	JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	95
CT	DANBURY MUNICIPAL AP	WBAN	95
NY	ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP	WBAN	95

July 21st

NY	ORIENT POINT STATE PARK	COOP	93
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	92
NY	UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK	COOP	92
CT	MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNICIPAL AP	WBAN	92
NY	JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	91
NY	WESTCHESTER CO AP	WBAN	91

July 22nd

NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	94
NY	SYOSSET	COOP	94
CT	DANBURY MUNICIPAL AP	WBAN	93
NY	WESTCHESTER CO AP	WBAN	93
CT	MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNICIPAL AP	WBAN	93
CT	NEW HAVEN TWEED AP	WBAN	93
NY	FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP	WBAN	92
CT	IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT	WBAN	92
NY	WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP	WBAN	92

 

July 23rd

 

NY	FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP	WBAN	96
NY	JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	96
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	95
NY	SHRUB OAK	COOP	94
NY	MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP	WBAN	94

July 24

NY	JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	96
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	95
NY	FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP	WBAN	95
CT	NEW HAVEN TWEED AP	WBAN	95
CT	MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNICIPAL AP	WBAN	95
CT	NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT	COOP	95

[uofmiami]

La Niña through the winter perhaps

 

[SACRUS]

Made it down to 69,  Now up to 80 / 57 and gorgeous summer and beach weather.  The warmer / drier spots have a shot at 90 today and tomorrow, otherwise sunny and just spectacular these next two days to close the month.  Monday still looks to be the next chance for rain / storms as warm front begins moving through and setting the stage for the next roasting.

 

By Tue (8/2) the Western Atlantic ridge is building way west and eventulally joins the Rockies/Plains Ridge by the middle of the Week Wed (8/3) and Thu (8/4) with a blast of strong heat coming in by next Fri (8/5) and through next weekend as it looks now, with the euro bringning in >20c 850 temps at times. The ridge contracts and resurges into the week of Mon (8/8) with overall a hot pattern to at times strong heat.  Still some details to be worked out that could foster storms around the rim of the ridge and Ridge could build over and force onshore or NE flow at times to keep it just warm to hot on days.  But overall dog days of summer and some of the hottest Aug temps sustained since 2015 or more.

[SACRUS]

 

Sunshine wall to wall

 

[SACRUS]

 

http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/imgs/vis_nj_anim.gif

Mostly to partly sunny soon

 

11 AM Roundup


JFK: 86
PHL: 85
EWR: 85
New Brnswck: 85
ACY: 84
BLM: 83
TTN: 82
TEB: 81
ACY: 83
ISP: 83
LGA: 81
NYC: 80

[Stormlover74]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

Sunshine wall to wall

 

90 but should feel 85

[SACRUS]

Dew point temperatures down into the low/mid 50s.  Whatta day

 

https://www.njweather.org/maps/mapviewer?mapname=dewpoint

[bluewave]

17 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

It will be interesting to see if there is an attribution study. If so, these events may be covered in the same study, even as they occurred days apart.

We can add Utqiagvik to the list of spots with extreme rainfall this month.

 

 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

Beautiful day out there though some locations may hit 90. The possible heatwave would start Tuesday or Wednesday. It will be interesting to see which school of thought prevails in reality with regards to the evolution into, duration, and extent of the heat. The European model is certainly the hottest case scenario at the moment. I question the NWS forecast of upper 80s on Monday with the warm front approaching the area. More than likely there will be clouds at the very least with the possibility of a few showers and I would doubt temperatures get much above 80 if they even get that high.

WX/PT

[SACRUS]

Noon on this gorgeous weekend July day

 

New Brnswck:  88
JFK: 87
EWR: 86
ACY: 86
PHL: 85
BLM: 85
TEB: 84
ISP: 84
TTN: 84
NYC: 83
LGA: 83

[bluewave]

Some trees here in SW Suffolk are starting to lose their leaves due to the drought stress. Things will dry out further today on a warm downslope flow. It’s soundings like this that show why it so hard to get rain here.

 

 

 

[wthrmn654]

Iwould love if Every summer day cool with a breeze but in the 80s like it is today

[Tatamy]

30 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Some trees here in SW Suffolk are starting to lose their leaves due to the drought stress. Things will dry out further today on a warm downslope flow. It’s soundings like this that show why it so hard to get rain here.

 

 

 

Monthly rain total at my station at Cherry Grove is 0.36”.  Two events during the past few days have accounted for 0.03”.  The remainder fell on or before 7/5/22.

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, Tatamy said:

Monthly rain total at my station at Cherry Grove is 0.36”.  Two events during the past few days have accounted for 0.03”.  The remainder fell on or before 7/5/22.

This is one of the driest Julys on record along the South Shore with many spots under .50.

Monthly Data for July 2022 for NY COASTAL Climate Division
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Name	Station Type	Total Precipitation
BLUE POINT 0.4 E	CoCoRaHS	0.15
COPIAGUE 0.4 ENE	CoCoRaHS	0.21
SAYVILLE 1.0 SSE	CoCoRaHS	0.22
SETAUKET-EAST SETAUKET 0.7 SSW	CoCoRaHS	0.25
AMITYVILLE 0.1 WSW	CoCoRaHS	0.26
WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP	WBAN	0.31
SAYVILLE 0.2 SE	CoCoRaHS	0.31
REMSENBURG-SPEONK 0.9 NE	CoCoRaHS	0.32
PATCHOGUE 0.9 SE	CoCoRaHS	0.32
WANTAGH 0.3 ESE	CoCoRaHS	0.37
BRIGHTWATERS 0.5 NNE	CoCoRaHS	0.43
AMITYVILLE 0.6 NNE	CoCoRaHS	0.44
MASSAPEQUA PARK 1.2 N	CoCoRaHS	0.44
BAY SHORE 0.5 ESE	CoCoRaHS	0.48
FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP	WBAN	0.49
BRIDGEHAMPTON	COOP	0.53

 

[SACRUS]

Up to a very comfortable 90 / 54 here , breeze and just golden out.  Less than an inch here for the month for rainfall and that looks to stick through sunday night.  Is there a fall flooding on the horizon - id bet yes.

[mattinpa]

2 hours ago, SACRUS said:

Dew point temperatures down into the low/mid 50s.  Whatta day

 

https://www.njweather.org/maps/mapviewer?mapname=dewpoint

We need it! Hoping to see more of it in your analysis posts soon.

[binbisso]

Next weekend looks like a carbon copy of this weekend.

 

 

[bluewave]

15 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Up to a very comfortable 90 / 54 here , breeze and just golden out.  Less than an inch here for the month for rainfall and that looks to stick through sunday night.  Is there a fall flooding on the horizon - id bet yes.

Only the 3rd time that Newark reached 30 days of 90° highs by July 30th. So 40 days looks like a given. Could make a run on 50 days.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Jan 1 to Jul 30	Missing Count
1	2010-07-30	37	0
2	1993-07-30	33	0
3	2022-07-30	30
4	1987-07-30	29	0
5	1994-07-30	28	0
6	2021-07-30	27	0
-	1991-07-30	27

 

[SACRUS]

 

2PM Roundup

 

New Brnswck: 90
PHL: 90
BLM: 90
EWR: 89
JFK: 89
ACY: 88
ISP: 88
TTN: 87
NYC: 86
LGA: 85
TEB: 84
 

[Tatamy]

41 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This is one of the driest Julys on record along the South Shore with many spots under .50.

Monthly Data for July 2022 for NY COASTAL Climate Division
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Name	Station Type	Total Precipitation
BLUE POINT 0.4 E	CoCoRaHS	0.15
COPIAGUE 0.4 ENE	CoCoRaHS	0.21
SAYVILLE 1.0 SSE	CoCoRaHS	0.22
SETAUKET-EAST SETAUKET 0.7 SSW	CoCoRaHS	0.25
AMITYVILLE 0.1 WSW	CoCoRaHS	0.26
WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP	WBAN	0.31
SAYVILLE 0.2 SE	CoCoRaHS	0.31
REMSENBURG-SPEONK 0.9 NE	CoCoRaHS	0.32
PATCHOGUE 0.9 SE	CoCoRaHS	0.32
WANTAGH 0.3 ESE	CoCoRaHS	0.37
BRIGHTWATERS 0.5 NNE	CoCoRaHS	0.43
AMITYVILLE 0.6 NNE	CoCoRaHS	0.44
MASSAPEQUA PARK 1.2 N	CoCoRaHS	0.44
LOCUST VALLEY 0.3 E	CoCoRaHS	0.46
BAY SHORE 0.5 ESE	CoCoRaHS	0.48
FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP	WBAN	0.49
BRIDGEHAMPTON	COOP	0.53

 

Isn’t Locust Valley a north shore station?

[SnoSki14]

It looks like Vegas out here. Never seen everything so yellowed out. 

Not much rain in the forecast either ahead of next heat surge 

[uofmiami]

8 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

Isn’t Locust Valley a north shore station?

Yep next to Glen Cove. These cocorahas are only as good as the observers are reporting their rainfalls after each rainfall.

[bluewave]

40 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

Isn’t Locust Valley a north shore station?

Yes, it’s a North Shore site that didn’t report on a few days. My point was for all the South Shore sires that are at .5 or less for July. This puts FRG at the driest July since records began in 2000. Driest July at Bridgehampton since 1944. My area of SW Suffolk is .25 to .50.

Time Series Summary for FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Total Precipitation	Missing Count
1	2022	0.49	3
2	2013	1.15	2
-	2002	1.15	0
4	2011	1.35	0
5	2012	1.49	0

 

Time Series Summary for BRIDGEHAMPTON, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Total Precipitation	Missing Count
1	1944	0.52	0
2	2022	0.53	1
3	1968	0.61	0
4	1994	0.67	0
5	1952	0.71	0

[forkyfork]

1 hour ago, binbisso said:

Next weekend looks like a carbon copy of this weekend.

 

 

what about wednesday through saturday? how's that looking?

[bluewave]

The much stronger southerly flow this month caused erosion along the Jersey Shore without a major coastal storm. The strong onshore flow has been a prominent feature this month with the extended 100° heat in NJ and cooler conditions along the South Shore. So it was a rare July for all that 100° heat not to make it east of Queens. 
 

 

 

 

[donsutherland1]

July will conclude with near or above normal temperatures. Afterward, there is the potential for significant heat to expand into the region during the first week of August. Overall, August will likely be warmer than normal.

Out West, Austin and San Antonio are virtually certain to record their third consecutive record warm month. Galveston is on track to record its fourth consecutive record warm month. Seattle and Portland are experiencing their second consecutive year with a concurrent extreme heat event for the first time on record.

During June 16-20, the MJO has been in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Of the six cases that saw such an outcome during June 15-25 (1988, 2003, 2010, 2012, 2017 and 2020), four had a warmer than normal July, one was somewhat cooler than normal and one was cooler than normal. The latest guidance all indicates that July will wind up solidly among the warmer than normal cases.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal.

In addition, in the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 50% of the following July cases were warmer than normal. 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around July 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.60°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer.

The SOI was +25.24.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.165 today.

On July 28 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.865 (RMM). The July 27-adjusted amplitude was 0.920 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.5° (2.0° above normal).

 

[SACRUS]

7/30

New Brnswck: 92
JFK: 91
EWR: 91
BLM: 91
ACY: 90
PHL: 90
TTN: 89
ISP: 88
LGA: 88
NYC: 87
TEB: 87

[SACRUS]

Check New Brunswick equipment its been warmer than Newark 4 times in the last 7 days.

[Rjay]

51 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Check New Brunswick equipment its been warmer than Newark 4 times in the last 7 days.

Nope.  Ewr is still wrong