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2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread


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…annnnd we’re back. :weenie:

xDytw0W.png

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Aug 6 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic: 
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa 
later this weekend. Environmental conditions are expected to be 
conducive for some gradual development of this system while it 
moves westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic 
during the early to middle part of next week. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Reinhart

 

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Now we have an orange! Question though: at what strength does shear become an issue for storms? It looks like there’s a lot of it, and it doesn’t look like it’s going to let up for awhile. (Correct me if I’m wrong)

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58 minutes ago, Rhino16 said:

Now we have an orange! Question though: at what strength does shear become an issue for storms? It looks like there’s a lot of it, and it doesn’t look like it’s going to let up for awhile. (Correct me if I’m wrong)

When it comes to shear, the intensity and direction can matter a lot. For most systems, light shear can be overcome, but moderate to high shear can keep an Invest from developing and hold even well developed systems in check.

Sometimes, the direction of shear can actually help the low ventilate and strengthen. A great recent example of this was Isaias, which muddled along in the western Atlantic and was first sheared by a with southwesterly shear until it started changing its direction to the NNE, which allowed for the shear to become a help rather than a hinderance. 

Isaias_1-4Aug20_southeast.gif

Here, while there is definitely shear around, it looks like the wave is going to come off Africa at a low enough latitude where shear shouldn't be too much of an issue early on. 

wg8shr.GIF

(image time sensitive) 

I think the bigger issues early on may be mid-level dry air and some residual instability and fast forward motion, with shear an issue by the time it gets to the Antilles. Our orange needs convection and a nice moisture envelope to develop the way the GFS tries to predict. 

gfs_shear_atl_32.png

(Image time sensitive)

It's a messy image, but note the central Atlantic near the islands. There's an upper low that imparts some significant westerly/SW shear on the low and it really tears it up. This far out though, those kind of placements really are hard to predict accurately. 

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11 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

When it comes to shear, the intensity and direction can matter a lot. For most systems, light shear can be overcome, but moderate to high shear can keep an Invest from developing and hold even well developed systems in check.

Sometimes, the direction of shear can actually help the low ventilate and strengthen. A great recent example of this was Isaias, which muddled along in the western Atlantic and was first sheared by a with southwesterly shear until it started changing its direction to the NNE, which allowed for the shear to become a help rather than a hinderance. 

Isaias_1-4Aug20_southeast.gif

Here, while there is definitely shear around, it looks like the wave is going to come off Africa at a low enough latitude where shear shouldn't be too much of an issue early on. 

wg8shr.GIF

(image time sensitive) 

I think the bigger issues early on may be mid-level dry air and some residual instability and fast forward motion, with shear an issue by the time it gets to the Antilles. Our orange needs convection and a nice moisture envelope to develop the way the GFS tries to predict. 

gfs_shear_atl_32.png

(Image time sensitive)

It's a messy image, but note the central Atlantic near the islands. There's an upper low that imparts some significant westerly/SW shear on the low and it really tears it up. This far out though, those kind of placements really are hard to predict accurately. 

I appreciate the thorough explanation!

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I said on July 31 that things were starting to look better as we approach mid-month, and today we are gradually seeing conditions improve. It's happening fastest in the western Atlantic and it's much slower in the eastern Atlantic. 

We're not quite at a broadly favorable environment yet, but the dead pattern from late July has ended in my estimation. 

giphy.gif?cid=790b761107e75f2dc7b469b844

First, we're starting to see the basin moisten. This is critical, both for allowing moisture and instability to build. Unlike a few weeks ago, we are seeing convective activity. There's still a lot of dry air in the central and eastern Atlantic, but there's just enough space for two robust waves, one of which has a chance to develop. 

Rather than look at the entire basin again, I just want to highlight three areas worth watching with a casual eye. 

1. Orange in the eastern MDR
This is the best chance of tropical genesis in the next 10 days. The NHC has designated a wave that left the coast of Africa yesterday with 40% odds to develop in the next five days. 

giphy.gif?cid=790b7611d7304415052d25f553

Again, we're looking at the wave closest to Africa here. Critically, there is a leading wave that is convectively active, helping to moisten the environment. Shear has relaxed in the region, SSTs are decent, and as a result the guidance has had a solid signal for TC genesis in the last few days on operational and ensemble guidance. 

The Euro operational has backed off a bit on development, but it looks like the GFS is leading right now with a more accurate depiction of the activity off Africa so far.

That has limited utility as we need to see if there's actual organization that can take place in the next couple of days, but for now, it's worth watching. 

I'd place odds of development at 50%. 

2. Atlantic Coast (next weekend) 
This one is a longer shot for development, but both operational and ensemble guidance has had a signal for a deep trough to come off the coast this weekend and spur the development of a low. If something could cutoff or pop further south near the Carolinas, there could be some subtropical development. This signal looks more baroclinic in nature, could be something to watch for fun if you're a weenie like me as we get closer to the weekend. 

I'd place odds of development at 15%. 

3. Gulf of Mexico (late week?)
Finally, there's not much of a signal here as the GFS tries to bring a small area of vorticity into the Gulf midweek. It goes over a maxima of OHC in the area, so if there's less shear than expected maybe something quick could spin up. Nothing worth taking seriously at the moment. 

I'd place odds of development at 5%. 

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Oof. Might go 0/3.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Aug 12 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. 1. Northern Gulf of Mexico:
A surface trough of low pressure is developing over the 
north-central Gulf of Mexico just offshore of southeastern 
Louisiana.  Development, if any, of this system is expected to be 
slow to occur during the next couple of days as it drifts 
west-southwestward over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico.  Regardless 
of development, locally heavy rains are possible along portions of 
the Texas coast through the weekend.  For more information about the 
potential for heavy rainfall, please see products issued by your 
local National Weather Service office and the Weather Prediction 
Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

For more information on the system, see products issued by the 
National Weather Service at weather.gov and wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

Forecaster Roberts
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What's the impact if this hurricane season fails to materialize?  My understanding is that hurricanes are basically engines that transport heat from the tropics to the poles.  Without any hurricanes this year it seems like all that heat won't be transferred and will just sit in the tropical waters.  Eventually something has to give, right?

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10 minutes ago, IronTy said:

What's the impact if this hurricane season fails to materialize?  My understanding is that hurricanes are basically engines that transport heat from the tropics to the poles.  Without any hurricanes this year it seems like all that heat won't be transferred and will just sit in the tropical waters.  Eventually something has to give, right?

CAT5 blizzards? ;)

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No long post because I'm moving lol but it's interesting how basically the two areas with lowest odds of development last Sunday are now the only game in town after 97L got smothered by tropical Atlantic stability. 

Still think whatever pops along the East Coast in a few days is non-tropical. 

Still low odds of development in the Gulf but at least there's a low. 

I know it looks rough out there on the guidance but the basin is gradually getting better. Not sure when we're going to start seeing a response on the guidance, especially with a favorable CCKW and MJO coming. 

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12 hours ago, AdamHLG said:

We’re about to have a long stretch of boring aren’t we. Summer severe had its roar. Next up a late November nor’easter.

Probably time for another earthquake.



.

Pass on the quake, but last time that happened we had high impact tropical not a week later.  Pass on that too, 700k+ outages is too much!  Still getting over 07/12 a month later! ;)

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