bluewave Posted May 17, 2022 Author Share Posted May 17, 2022 The EPS first guess for the Memorial Day weekend is much warmer than last year. 4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 17, 2022 Share Posted May 17, 2022 Picked up 0.32" of rain for the day yesterday. Current temp 61 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 17, 2022 Author Share Posted May 17, 2022 Long Island severe thunderstorms with straight line winds or hail usually peak in July and August. But some years like 2019 the peak is in late June.Tornados have a later peak from August to recently November. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=171&opt=ugc&station=OKX&state=NY&_ugc_state=NY&ugc=NYC103&phenomena=SV&significance=W&cmap=Reds&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 17, 2022 Share Posted May 17, 2022 1 hour ago, bluewave said: The EPS first guess for the Memorial Day weekend is much warmer than last year. anything would be warmer than last year...hope its like 1986 or 1987... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 17, 2022 Author Share Posted May 17, 2022 1 hour ago, uncle W said: anything would be warmer than last year...hope its like 1986 or 1987... Last May into June was another famous post 2010 big temperature swing. It was the latest 52° high temperature at the end of May for Newark. Followed up by the earliest 103° high temperature at the end of June. First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJEach section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Difference 2021 05-29 (2021) 52 11-14 (2021) 48 168 1961 05-27 (1961) 49 10-15 (1961) 51 140 1967 05-25 (1967) 48 11-05 (1967) 47 163 1957 05-20 (1957) 52 10-26 (1957) 48 158 1976 05-19 (1976) 52 10-17 (1976) 50 150 First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJEach section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year First Value Last Value Difference 2021 06-30 (2021) 103 06-30 (2021) 103 0 1966 07-03 (1966) 105 07-03 (1966) 105 0 1949 07-04 (1949) 105 07-04 (1949) 105 0 1999 07-05 (1999) 103 07-05 (1999) 103 0 2010 07-06 (2010) 103 07-06 (2010) 103 0 1993 07-07 (1993) 103 07-10 (1993) 105 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted May 17, 2022 Share Posted May 17, 2022 But for JFK it has 71! 28 degree difference in less than 15 miles? GFS: The 90's Specialist. No quality control here. For me, it looks like this: Wind is SW and should limit sea breeze damage. Going to prepare for the beach and decide at the last moment probably. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted May 17, 2022 Share Posted May 17, 2022 How’s Sunday looking, rain at night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 17, 2022 Share Posted May 17, 2022 9 minutes ago, bluewave said: Tricky temperature forecast for Saturday. Euro is cooler with more clouds and a strong onshore flow. Has low 90s west of the NJ Turnpike. The GEM is much warmer with upper 90s for Central NJ. The Euro and GEM agree on much cooler highs from NYC to Long Island with a strong sea breezes in those areas. i've noticed that it tends to overdo seabreezes in ne nj 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 18, 2022 Share Posted May 18, 2022 Slightly cooler weather will continue through Thursday. Afterward, the warmest weather of the year so far is possible next weekend for parts of the region. Areas on the immediate coastline where sea breezes occur may remain much cooler than interior sections. Overall, the second half of the month will likely be warmer than normal and there remains some possibility of an overall warm monthly outcome. The potential also exists for several very warm to perhaps hot days. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around May 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.57°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.03°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of June. The SOI was +24.45 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.267 today. On May 15 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.688 (RMM). The May 14-adjusted amplitude was 1.653 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 55% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.5° (0.3° above normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted May 18, 2022 Share Posted May 18, 2022 6 hours ago, bluewave said: Tricky temperature forecast for Saturday. Euro is cooler with more clouds and a strong onshore flow. Has low 90s west of the NJ Turnpike. The GEM is much warmer with upper 90s for Central NJ. The Euro and GEM agree on much cooler highs from NYC to Long Island with a strong sea breezes in those areas. The south shore would likely get stuck in the 60s to maybe low 70s but I doubt that if NJ has widespread 90s that NYC/the north shore wouldn’t even make it to 80. There would probably be low to mid 80s for highs here before the sea breeze knocks it down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 18, 2022 Share Posted May 18, 2022 16 hours ago, bluewave said: Last May into June was another famous post 2010 big temperature swing. It was the latest 52° high temperature at the end of May for Newark. Followed up by the earliest 103° high temperature at the end of June. First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJEach section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Difference 2021 05-29 (2021) 52 11-14 (2021) 48 168 1961 05-27 (1961) 49 10-15 (1961) 51 140 1967 05-25 (1967) 48 11-05 (1967) 47 163 1957 05-20 (1957) 52 10-26 (1957) 48 158 1976 05-19 (1976) 52 10-17 (1976) 50 150 First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJEach section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year First Value Last Value Difference 2021 06-30 (2021) 103 06-30 (2021) 103 0 1966 07-03 (1966) 105 07-03 (1966) 105 0 1949 07-04 (1949) 105 07-04 (1949) 105 0 1999 07-05 (1999) 103 07-05 (1999) 103 0 2010 07-06 (2010) 103 07-06 (2010) 103 0 1993 07-07 (1993) 103 07-10 (1993) 105 2 Cant take a 103 temperature reading seriously lol. The last time that happened was 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 18, 2022 Share Posted May 18, 2022 14 hours ago, CIK62 said: But for JFK it has 71! 28 degree difference in less than 15 miles? GFS: The 90's Specialist. No quality control here. For me, it looks like this: Wind is SW and should limit sea breeze damage. Going to prepare for the beach and decide at the last moment probably. 99 next Saturday? why is no one forecasting that? also looks like more 90s for Memorial Day weekend! do you have a percentage of cloud cover forecast for each day in that period too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 18, 2022 Share Posted May 18, 2022 5 hours ago, jm1220 said: The south shore would likely get stuck in the 60s to maybe low 70s but I doubt that if NJ has widespread 90s that NYC/the north shore wouldn’t even make it to 80. There would probably be low to mid 80s for highs here before the sea breeze knocks it down. Nah the south shore will probably get close to 80, at least the western part of the south shore. Might drop back later into the afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 18, 2022 Share Posted May 18, 2022 12 hours ago, bluewave said: Tricky temperature forecast for Saturday. Euro is cooler with more clouds and a strong onshore flow. Has low 90s west of the NJ Turnpike. The GEM is much warmer with upper 90s for Central NJ. The Euro and GEM agree on much cooler highs from NYC to Long Island with a strong sea breezes in those areas. why are we going with the Euro? Hasn't the GFS shown itself to be better this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 18, 2022 Share Posted May 18, 2022 Morning thoughts… Clouds will increase during the afternoon or evening. Some showers and periods of rain are likely overnight into tomorrow. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 70s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 72° Newark: 74° Philadelphia: 74° The weekend will likely see the warmest temperatures so far this season in many parts of the region. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 71.9°; 15-Year: 72.7° Newark: 30-Year: 73.1°; 15-Year: 74.0° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 74.9°; 15-Year: 75.6° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted May 18, 2022 Share Posted May 18, 2022 The next 8 days are averaging 72degs.(62/83) or +6. Month to date is 60.5[-0.9]. Should be 64.1[+1.3] by the 26th. Since I am near the water, I could get screwed this weekend. EURO has JFK under 70 for the next 10 days!!! GFS has record heat on Sat./Sun., 99,98. EURO is 80,89. CMC is 91,93, but coolish every other day. Problem with the post processing of the MOS is what is behind this---would be my guess. Reached 79 here yesterday. Today: 66-71, wind w., m. sunny till the early afternoon, rain by 3am tomorrow, about 60 tomorrow AM. 57*(59%RH) here at 7am. 65* at Noon. 69* at 3pm. Reached 71* at 4pm. 62* at 7pm. 59* at 9pm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 18, 2022 Author Share Posted May 18, 2022 4 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Cant take a 103 temperature reading seriously lol. The last time that happened was 2011. Why can’t we take it seriously? It reached 102° at the end of June in Corona Queens. So the 103° at Newark reflected it being a degree warmer in NE NJ than Queens. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 18, 2022 Author Share Posted May 18, 2022 10 hours ago, jm1220 said: The south shore would likely get stuck in the 60s to maybe low 70s but I doubt that if NJ has widespread 90s that NYC/the north shore wouldn’t even make it to 80. There would probably be low to mid 80s for highs here before the sea breeze knocks it down. The GEM has the most extreme temperature gradient of all. Strong sea breeze and cooler temperatures east of the Hudson. Has highs of 95-100° in NJ. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 18, 2022 Share Posted May 18, 2022 Pretty good drenching coming overnight 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted May 18, 2022 Share Posted May 18, 2022 43 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Pretty good drenching coming overnight NAM showing a lot more than the other models. Euro and HRRR give us closer to a quarter inch. We'll see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 18, 2022 Share Posted May 18, 2022 35 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: NAM showing a lot more than the other models. Euro and HRRR give us closer to a quarter inch. We'll see. 12z gfs has .75 to 1" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 18, 2022 Share Posted May 18, 2022 fingers crossed 1 2 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted May 18, 2022 Share Posted May 18, 2022 2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: 12z gfs has .75 to 1" And I see the Euro just increased amounts. 12z run gives us about .75 here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 18, 2022 Share Posted May 18, 2022 nice. keep that cool air well to our west 6 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 18, 2022 Share Posted May 18, 2022 3 hours ago, forkyfork said: fingers crossed Jesus this is gonna hit people hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 18, 2022 Share Posted May 18, 2022 1 hour ago, bluewave said: It will be interesting to see if somebody in NJ can record their first 100° day in May on Saturday. Models have 850 mb temperatures around +21 C. This is about as high as we ever saw the 850s this early in the season.The temperature differential between low 70s in Long Beach and upper 90s to near 100° in NJ is as extreme as it gets. the temperature in NYC was 99 on May 19th 1962 after a very cool first half of the month...the temp was 96 on May 20th 1996 after a cool start to the month...both times it was the warmest temperature for the year with three days 89 or higher...it can get hot fast and hit 100 especially in todays environment... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted May 18, 2022 Share Posted May 18, 2022 58 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Jesus this is gonna hit people hard. Just what so many don’t need with energy prices through the roof. Luckily I’m directly on the water on south shore LI 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted May 18, 2022 Share Posted May 18, 2022 2 hours ago, forkyfork said: nice. keep that cool air well to our west Let’s start pumping water temps too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 18, 2022 Share Posted May 18, 2022 Newark NJ benchmark record highs... 72 on 1/06/2007... 74 on 1/26/1950... 80 on 2/21/2018... 82 on 3/09/2016 86 on 3/13/1990... 87 on 3/28/1945... 89 on 3/29/1945... 92 on 4/07/2010... 97 on 4/17/2002... 98 on 5/19/1962... 99 on 5/20/1996... 102 on 6/09/2011... 103 on 6/30/2021... 105 on 7/03/1966... 108 on 7/22/2011... 105 on 9/02/1953... 100 on 9/03/1993... 99 on 9/11/1983... 96 on 10/02/2019... 93 on 10/05/1941... 92 on 10/10/1949... 90 on 10/17/1938... 87 on 10/23/1947... 85 on 11/01/1950... 84 on 11/02/1950... 81 on 11/03/2003... 80 on 11/15/1993... 76 on 12/07/1998... 72 on 12/10/1946... 71 on 12/29/1984... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted May 18, 2022 Share Posted May 18, 2022 24 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Let’s start pumping water temps too These strong southerly flow days will do that quick. There’ll likely be an Ambrose Jet with 30+ mph gusts with that kind of contrast and cool temps on the south shore. Like two different worlds vs. Newark. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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