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Spring/Summer 2022 Complaint/Banter Hangout


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As we are 10 years removed from the infamous warmth and drought of 2012, I was looking back at some stuff.  It's amazing how fast this drought developed and spread and is a classic example of flash drought. 

 

20120529-usdm.png

 

20120807-usdm.png

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59 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

As we are 10 years removed from the infamous warmth and drought of 2012, I was looking back at some stuff.  It's amazing how fast this drought developed and spread and is a classic example of flash drought. 

 

20120529-usdm.png

 

20120807-usdm.png

I was living in Jacksonville, IL that year (about 40 minutes west of Springfield). That summer seemed to last forever. The heat and humidity were relentless. Thank goodness for the remnants of Tropical Storm Isaac. I think it brought about the only severe weather that summer with some weak tornadoes.

il_prcp_mpe_007_tot_20120903.png?w=625

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On 5/28/2022 at 5:21 AM, Powerball said:

As far as short-term forecasts, also in recent history, we as average joes have also become way overexposed to a lot more weather forecasting tools than we were traditionally privy to, and that's without necessarily having a complete understanding of the science behind them. If you think back in the 90s or even the early 2000s, we weren't able to easily pull up radars, satellites, model outputs, skew-t soundings, indices, SSTs, MJO plots, etc. that are used for predictions like we are in 2022.

In the early 2000s you couldn't pull up SSTs? That would be benumbling. That gives rise to this question, what was the earliest one could access satellite images online? I've seen floater images of TCs from 2002 but no earlier.

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22 minutes ago, Torchageddon said:

In the early 2000s you couldn't pull up SSTs? That would be benumbling. That gives rise to this question, what was the earliest one could access satellite images online? I've seen floater images of TCs from 2002 but no earlier.

It may have been possible, but not easily accessible like it is today.

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The wiki article on the Ontario Derecho had something I disagreed with and has since been removed. The cited source doesn't have anything about this within:

"In Southwestern Ontario, a derecho can be expected about once every two years (once a year for Windsor-Essex), usually developing in the U.S. [[Midwest]]. The [[Kitchener-Waterloo]] and [[greater Toronto]] region experience derechos about once in every four years. Derechos in Ottawa, Montreal, and Quebec City are considerably rarer, but are not unheard of."

It was removed a few days ago since the link below never had anything about Canada in it. I wasn't even sure if there was ever a documented derecho in SON, writing that K-W and Toronto get one every 4 years is ludicrous :blink:. For Ottawa, Montreal and QC - I'd have to disagree and say they are unheard of :lol:.

https://web.archive.org/web/20141222110142/http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rah/newsletter/RAHNewsletter_Mar13.pdf

If the author comes across this I'd like to hear their side of the story, and if there is evidence of a derecho hitting SON before May 2022.

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23 hours ago, Torchageddon said:

The wiki article on the Ontario Derecho had something I disagreed with and has since been removed. The cited source doesn't have anything about this within:

"In Southwestern Ontario, a derecho can be expected about once every two years (once a year for Windsor-Essex), usually developing in the U.S. [[Midwest]]. The [[Kitchener-Waterloo]] and [[greater Toronto]] region experience derechos about once in every four years. Derechos in Ottawa, Montreal, and Quebec City are considerably rarer, but are not unheard of."

It was removed a few days ago since the link below never had anything about Canada in it. I wasn't even sure if there was ever a documented derecho in SON, writing that K-W and Toronto get one every 4 years is ludicrous :blink:. For Ottawa, Montreal and QC - I'd have to disagree and say they are unheard of :lol:.

https://web.archive.org/web/20141222110142/http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rah/newsletter/RAHNewsletter_Mar13.pdf

If the author comes across this I'd like to hear their side of the story, and if there is evidence of a derecho hitting SON before May 2022.

Looks like two derechos in 1995 hit Ontario. I was in northern Michigan for the one on July 13, 1995

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/AbtDerechos/casepages/jul1995derechopage.htm

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On 6/5/2022 at 8:22 PM, Chicago Storm said:

I helped guide a storm chasing tour back on May 8-16th. Here's a few of the better shots from the trip...

t7_orig.jpg

t12_orig.jpg

t13_orig.jpg

t31_orig.jpg

Nice mammatus. Always wanted to work that term into a conversation but seldom felt socially appropriate.

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I was using that awesome site Hoosier gave me to look at extremes like mins and maxs in ON and I think I caught an error since there is no way Durham made it below 0 on July 14, even if it was 1895:

I checked another station as close as possible (too bad many don't have 1895 records) to collaborate, and despite being further inland which should help diurnal cooldowns, it wasn't even close to 0 but more like 39F or 4C at Alton's station.

Min July Temps Top 26 in Durham ON.png

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10 hours ago, Torchageddon said:

I was using that awesome site Hoosier gave me to look at extremes like mins and maxs in ON and I think I caught an error since there is no way Durham made it below 0 on July 14, even if it was 1895:

I checked another station as close as possible (too bad many don't have 1895 records) to collaborate, and despite being further inland which should help diurnal cooldowns, it wasn't even close to 0 but more like 39F or 4C at Alton's station.

Min July Temps Top 26 in Durham ON.png

 Can I please have the link to that site?

I'd like to use it as well.

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29 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

Texas is baking today, especially for being somewhat early in the season.  Highest temp I found so far is 108 at Cotulla, and highest heat index is 110 at Victoria (97/76). 

I do not find that surprising as Cotulla is only 5 degrees north of the Tropic of Cancer and this is the second week of June. The Sun is dang near straight overhead now at the median.

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42 minutes ago, bowtie` said:

I do not find that surprising as Cotulla is only 5 degrees north of the Tropic of Cancer and this is the second week of June. The Sun is dang near straight overhead now at the median.

Yeah, I suppose...but, if so, that's a pretty scary climate to live in.

Either way, the 108 is a new daily record (107 in 2014)...and the normal high is "only" 98.  Records go back to 1901.

And now Kingsville TX has a heat index of 112 (99/75).

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3 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

Yeah, I suppose...but, if so, that's a pretty scary climate to live in.

Either way, the 108 is a new daily record (107 in 2014)...and the normal high is "only" 98.  Records go back to 1901.

One thing I have noticed with places in the south... if they are 10-15 degrees above average, there's a good chance it's going to be a daily record or at least darn close.  They have much less of a distribution of temps compared to areas farther north.

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33 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Miami average high for Jun 12:  89

Miami record high for Jun 12:  95

lol.  Obviously this is an extreme example as they are in the southern US and near the water, but still.

Yep.  Miami FL and Laredo TX are two of the more miserable places to live in the US from May-September.  For Laredo, it's normal highs 95-105, lows 70-80, and high humidity due to proximity to the Rio Grande river.  For Miami, it's normal highs 85-90, lows 75-80, and extremely high humidity. There's just no relief, day after day after day.

Despite the sauna-like atmosphere, I actually think Miami is a bit more tolerable than Laredo due to lower daytime temps and frequent rainfall to take some of the edge off. 

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36 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Miami average high for Jun 12:  89

Miami record high for Jun 12:  95

lol.  Obviously this is an extreme example as they are in the southern US and near the water, but still.

Key West is even more dramatic, especially in August when the water temps are at their warmest.  

Average high for Aug 12th:  91

Record high for Aug 12th:  95

 

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17 minutes ago, Jonger said:

Summers don't feel as rough as they used to be, bur that probably has more to do with my lack of AC growing up.

That makes sense to me. I do remember never having A/C in cars, and having all the windows open and the wing vents cranked all the way around, so you were jamming as much hot air into the car as possible. Just this evening as I was watching the Sun set a gal drove past with the windows up, A/C crankin' and Facetiming or TikToking away on her phone. I thought that back in the day the wind noise would have ruined her do and made making any kind of video with all the wind noise rather problematic.

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On 6/11/2022 at 10:15 PM, Torchageddon said:

I was using that awesome site Hoosier gave me to look at extremes like mins and maxs in ON and I think I caught an error since there is no way Durham made it below 0 on July 14, even if it was 1895:

I checked another station as close as possible (too bad many don't have 1895 records) to collaborate, and despite being further inland which should help diurnal cooldowns, it wasn't even close to 0 but more like 39F or 4C at Alton's station.

Min July Temps Top 26 in Durham ON.png

Looks legitimate to me. I think people underestimate how cold it was in the 1800s. Some of the temperatures would be unfathomable today. This is July 1895 roundup for northern Ohio. New Waterford, Ohio had lows of 38 on the 3rd, 38 on the 4th, 37 on the 5th, 35th on the 10th, 35 on the 11th, 39 on the 12th, 37 on the 14th, 38 on the 29th, and 35 on the 31st. The mean low temperature for the month was 47.1F. It's rare just to fall below 50F these days anywhere in the State of Ohio during July. Having a monthly mean low temperature anywhere in the State of Ohio would be unfathomable.

In addition, there were two other sites with mean lows in the 40s... Auburn (49.3F) and Norwalk (49.0F). The coldest low that month was 34F in Auburn on the 9th, but it looks like there low temperatures were shifted forward one day (i.e., the following morning low attributed to the prior day) as that reading is in line with the lows on the 10th, where there widespread low to mid 40s and several 30s. Frosts were recorded on the 4th and 10th that month in parts of the State.

image.thumb.png.d13ccdc754d5138a0406afe4c2a37bfb.png

image.png.abdea1e560cdeab35d195c1fe61dcaa6.png

image.png.156e6ebe51a1660c048277117bd8e93d.png

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9 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Looks legitimate to me. I think people underestimate how cold it was in the 1800s. Some of the temperatures would be unfathomable today. This is July 1895 roundup for northern Ohio. New Waterford, Ohio had lows of 38 on the 3rd, 38 on the 4th, 37 on the 5th, 35th on the 10th, 35 on the 11th, 39 on the 12th, 37 on the 14th, 38 on the 29th, and 35 on the 31st. The mean low temperature for the month was 47.1F. It's rare just to fall below 50F these days anywhere in the State of Ohio during July. Having a monthly mean low temperature anywhere in the State of Ohio would be unfathomable.

In addition, there were two other sites with mean lows in the 40s... Auburn (49.3F) and Norwalk (49.0F). The coldest low that month was 34F in Auburn on the 9th, but it looks like there low temperatures were shifted forward one day (i.e., the following morning low attributed to the prior day) as that reading is in line with the lows on the 10th, where there widespread low to mid 40s and several 30s. Frosts were recorded on the 4th and 10th that month in parts of the State.

image.thumb.png.d13ccdc754d5138a0406afe4c2a37bfb.png

image.png.abdea1e560cdeab35d195c1fe61dcaa6.png

image.png.156e6ebe51a1660c048277117bd8e93d.png

Ohio is further south but those minimums don't seem so crazy to me, what makes me think the 30F is an error is that the next record low for July is 34F tied and were both in the 1960s. If 30F was reached on July 14 1895 then something extraordinary in the records would be present like the airmass or something that could bottom out temps. The frosts were light in OH so above 32F we can surmise.

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12 hours ago, Torchageddon said:

Ohio is further south but those minimums don't seem so crazy to me, what makes me think the 30F is an error is that the next record low for July is 34F tied and were both in the 1960s. If 30F was reached on July 14 1895 then something extraordinary in the records would be present like the airmass or something that could bottom out temps. The frosts were light in OH so above 32F we can surmise.

I couldn't find the raw data from where this was sourced. Environment Canada has the information uploaded, and also shows a subfreezing low on the 14th (-1.1C). A copy of the original record would probably help, as you'd be able to see whether an error was made in transcription. And the observer might have noted the frost or freeze if it occurred. However, it does not look like Environment Canada has these records readily available for download like NCDC.

Looking at surrounding stations, it appears it was a cold morning as there were several reporting lows in the upper 30s to around 40. Not sure if this site was particularly good at radiational cooling, but could be a transcription error (like maybe it was written as 36 or 38, but difficult to decipher).

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