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Winter 2022-2023 Conjecture


40/70 Benchmark
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Past few years here have been subpar for snow in the 42-45" range. Just based on information gleaned from others in the field and perhaps a little persistence, I expect somewhat better results this winter with around 50". I realize past performance does not dictate future results...yadda yadda yadda...but we'll see.

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58 minutes ago, rimetree said:

Past few years here have been subpar for snow in the 42-45" range. Just based on information gleaned from others in the field and perhaps a little persistence, I expect somewhat better results this winter with around 50". I realize past performance does not dictate future results...yadda yadda yadda...but we'll see.

Your 'hood is due for a good one....been kind of rough on the north shore of MA and sea coast of NH the last few winters.

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52 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Your 'hood is due for a good one....been kind of rough on the north shore of MA and sea coast of NH the last few winters.

Need a 1967 special to meander around the GOM throwin' deform dendrite bands for 4" stints spanning 100 hours...  That'll 'bout get 'im back to normal

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2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is la nina is just about out of time to be anything more than borderline weak/moderate.

 12OCT2022     18.9-2.0     24.0-1.0     25.9-0.8     27.5-1.1

Really leaning east now....

The entire basin is in a La Niña. Once every Nino region is very solidly into a La Niña, does it even matter anymore as far as feedbacks? 

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37 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The entire basin is in a La Niña. Once every Nino region is very solidly into a La Niña, does it even matter anymore as far as feedbacks? 

It's not a huge deal, but when looking for best matches, it looks more like a 70-71, 2010-2011 basin wide deal, as opposed to a 99-00 or 07-08. Little nuances like that can be significant since the range of outcomes is so high amongst basin wide events.

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On 10/17/2022 at 9:56 AM, stadiumwave said:

JMA updated...models kind of looking stellar for NOV & then DJF kind of looks like a blend of 2020-21 & 2021-22.

NOV

Screenshot_20221017-083921_Chrome.jpg.1a06a85e9061a0993b73f63fc0cdf1c5.jpg

 

DEC

Screenshot_20221017-084001_Chrome.jpg.66b5908da86ffa140b0f392c45af8ae3.jpg

 

JAN

Screenshot_20221017-084035_Chrome.jpg.4655ba281cff54360f9dcf47c3e6e39f.jpg

 

DJF

Screenshot_20221017-085043_Chrome.jpg.5aa0499484c039a733aa84dfed0f58a2.jpg

 

Kind of a blend of 2020-21, 2021-22 with mean trough a little further west.

Screenshot_20221017-084739_Chrome.thumb.jpg.100d15d5b98f960983c585588ac57fab.jpg

 

Now the JMA mean pattern is similar to the upcoming pattern & it could be the monthly & seasonal model output is heavily influenced by that. It happens. Or it could be the upcoming pattern is very much indicative of the winter mean pattern. 

Personally I still think it's too early to know. I lean towards some of NOV & maybe early DEC could be colder pattern & then who knows after that. 

One of the key players is what will the PDO do. Right now it's positive but really means nothing as of yet, it can change in a hurry as Fall N. Pac SST's can fluctuate greatly. I think if we get the earlier peak of La Nina the transition towards +ENSO may be pretty quick &  hold some +PDO. We'll see.

Screenshot_20221017-090203_Chrome.thumb.jpg.21ac9e4d8b190964dc7208acf4561c70.jpg

Say goodbye to those warmer waters in the GOA and along the Western North American coast in 3, 2, 1…..

 

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36 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Say goodbye to those warmer waters in the GOA and along the Western North American coast in 3, 2, 1…..

 

That pool means nothing. It’s a product of the 500mb pattern. That atmosphere is not changing hemispheric patterns because water temps are 53 instead of 49. 
 

The NPAC SSTs are as overhyped as the SAI.

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4 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

That pool means nothing. It’s a product of the 500mb pattern. That atmosphere is not changing hemispheric patterns because water temps are 53 instead of 49. 
 

The NPAC SSTs are as overhyped as the SAI.

Its overhyped, but there is somewhat of a feedback after a certain point. 

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2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Maybe slightly. It’s hard for me to see how waters that are so cool have enough energy to alter hemispheric patterns and have this signal overwhelm others.  

Agreed. From what I’ve read and you know a lot more than me, so correct me if I’m wrong but you need tropical like ocean temps, evaporation, latent and sensible heat release from the ocean to the atmosphere to start a positive feedback loop strong enough to alter the global longwave pattern

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38 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Agreed. From what I’ve read and you know a lot more than me, so correct me if I’m wrong but you need tropical like ocean temps, evaporation, latent and sensible heat release from the ocean to the atmosphere to start a positive feedback loop strong enough to alter the global longwave pattern

I'm not saying there is zero effect....but the warm or cold pools off the south coast of AK are usually a sign that we have had consistent ridging or troughing. So maybe there is a small effect....but the atmosphere will do what it wants to do. If the overall wave train is oriented to favor a trough or ridge there at 500mb...it will do it.  You are correct in that tropical waters and the circulations that develop when deep convection forms, are a much stronger influence on the atmosphere. 

I still would rather see anomalous warm waters off of AK....but I'm not going to be down and out if the waters there were cooler than normal.

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19 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Hype sells, but reverse psychology is also rampant on here. Just downplay and poo-poo every event so you can convince yourself that you are not "invested emotionally" in a winter or a storm threat.

I’m one to talk (lol) but I think the reverse psychology deal is the preferred method now. Poo poo and find the flaws so you can either claim you were right when a threat flames out or be wrong and get a lot of snow. It’s a no lose strategy.

Hubbdave is the master at this. He lives in probably the best snow spot in all of SNE and legitimately acts stunned when it snows :lol:.

All in good fun of course Dave

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3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Maybe slightly. It’s hard for me to see how waters that are so cool have enough energy to alter hemispheric patterns and have this signal overwhelm others.  

Well, I don't include non-ENSO SST analogs when I do the seasonal, so that is a testament to how much I value it. I'm not saying it alters the pattern, but I think it can help to re enforce it or maybe slow the onset of a disparate regime.

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11 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I’m one to talk (lol) but I think the reverse psychology deal is the preferred method now. Poo poo and find the flaws so you can either claim you were right when a threat flames out or be wrong and get a lot of snow. It’s a no lose strategy.

Hubbdave is the master at this. He lives in probably the best snow spot in all of SNE and legitimately acts stunned when it snows :lol:.

All in good fun of course Dave

I put you up there with the best of them.

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25 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I’m one to talk (lol) but I think the reverse psychology deal is the preferred method now. Poo poo and find the flaws so you can either claim you were right when a threat flames out or be wrong and get a lot of snow. It’s a no lose strategy.

Hubbdave is the master at this. He lives in probably the best snow spot in all of SNE and legitimately acts stunned when it snows :lol:.

All in good fun of course Dave

Hubbdave was pretty epic in the 2014-2015 winter...."meh'd" his way to 115(?) inches of snow. I don't think he liked seeing all of those Scooter jackpots. But I will at least sympathize with him for the Jan 2015 blizzard where we got annihilated in ORH and he was choking on arctic sand exhaust just northwest of the death band.

 

Hubbdave is a little more subtle though....you and Lavarock are co-captains of the Poo-Poo Pom-Pom cheerleading team. :lol:

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13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Hubbdave was pretty epic in the 2014-2015 winter...."meh'd" his way to 115(?) inches of snow. I don't think he liked seeing all of those Scooter jackpots. But I will at least sympathize with him for the Jan 2015 blizzard where we got annihilated in ORH and he was choking on arctic sand exhaust just northwest of the death band.

 

Hubbdave is a little more subtle though....you and Lavarock are co-captains of the Poo-Poo Pom-Pom cheerleading team. :lol:

I've had a target on my back since '13-'14. But many forget some pretty lousy storms that have not worked out here. 

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23 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Hubbdave was pretty epic in the 2014-2015 winter...."meh'd" his way to 115(?) inches of snow. I don't think he liked seeing all of those Scooter jackpots. But I will at least sympathize with him for the Jan 2015 blizzard where we got annihilated in ORH and he was choking on arctic sand exhaust just northwest of the death band.

 

Hubbdave is a little more subtle though....you and Lavarock are co-captains of the Poo-Poo Pom-Pom cheerleading team. :lol:

I can't imagine how sickening it is to be just NW of a death band and get like 8" of sand, while 10mi se gets 3' of powder. Thankfully, that has never happened to me, but I have had the same sensible result a couple of times due to subby slots....12/05/2003 takes the cake, with 12" here, 28" in Woburn (8mi) and 38" in Peabody (10-12mi).

PDII a close second with 12" and like 2'+ in Woburn. Last January was probably 3rd.

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