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Upstate/Eastern New York-Springtime?


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1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said:

Lol...we only get heavy training precipitation when it's rain. During the winter if it's below freezing, the precipitation falls off the hills from the south and vanishes. Three winters in a row. But next winter will be better................. Right? 

I don't believe in voodoo crap but this is all on you, no other explanation.  Cuse is top dog every year, never see consecutive crappy winters, let alone multiple consecutive ultra crappy winters.  The snow bust is purely on your shoulders.  Just wonky...

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I also feel like this year was more bad luck compared to warmth..Jan and February both were below average in temps and snowfall, not just little either, quite a bit lol At least according to the COOP.. November was another month right around average for temp and below average for snow, usually this wouldn't be the case..

Obviously December and March were blah..

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1 hour ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

I don't believe in voodoo crap but this is all on you, no other explanation.  Cuse is top dog every year, never see consecutive crappy winters, let alone multiple consecutive ultra crappy winters.  The snow bust is purely on your shoulders.  Just wonky...

Lol... I don't believe in voodoo, but I still warned you guys... lol...

Just awful ... Ma Nature hates me. It's like she is going through a bitter divorce with Syracuse and me.

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11 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Going for a 4th house in New York state?  We'll have to spend the winter snowfall chasing via the "Tour de Feric"

It would be a cabin, bare basics just to ride out the best parts of winter when necessary can't afford more, I'm on a pension after taking early retirement

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11 hours ago, wolfie09 said:

How low is this area supposed to get? Lol Pulaski max low was -20.. That's most likely computer generated, I don't even know where they are getting the temps to compare..lol

Screenshot_20220407-221537.png

Yeah, Idk. I got down to -16° and they're saying that's 0-2° higher than average lowest min. Seems suspect.

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For the long term period, it will be warm, but continue to be
active. Day to day warming is expected from Tuesday through Thursday
as a ridge tracks across the region. There is still some timing
difference between model guidance for the ridge crossing the region,
followed by the next trough with cooler temps. Max temperatures on
Tuesday will be in the low 60s to near 70 for areas south of Lake
Ontario, and in the mid 50s to near 60 for areas east of Lake
Ontario. Max temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday will be in the
upper 60s to mid 70s south of Lake Ontario, and in the low to mid
60s east of Lake Ontario; temperatures for Thursday will be a few
degrees warmer than Wednesday, but within the range described above.
Timing will be important with the temperatures, as guidance is still
spread with a frontal passage on Thursday. With a slower solution,
delaying the cold front, temperatures will need to be bumped up for
Thursday.

Precipitation wise, Tuesday should be mostly dry. A warm front
associated with an area of low pressure will track northeast across
the region early Wednesday. This will start a more active period
during the long term. Shower potential will increase with the
frontal passage and then continue with the western & north central
NY region in the warm sector of an area of low pressure over the
upper Midwest on Wednesday. The sfc low will start to occlude and
track slowly northeast across the northern Great Lakes and into
Canada later in the week (still some timing issues with this as
well). Within the warm sector, over the region from Wednesday
evening through Thursday afternoon, shower potential will continue,
with some thunderstorms also possible at times. Shower potential
will increase drastically with the frontal passage across the area.
As mentioned above, timing for this frontal passage ranges from the
Thursday afternoon through late Friday morning, so fine tuning the
forecast for these time periods will be necessary over the coming
days. But overall, the active weather we have had, will continue
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Well played MXZ.  Here's my point and click for the weekend which is utterly craptacular:

Tonight
A chance of rain showers before 5am, then a chance of rain and snow showers. Increasing clouds, with a low around 34. Light south wind. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. 
Saturday
Rain and snow, becoming all rain after 11am. Some thunder is also possible. High near 45. Calm wind becoming west 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. 
Saturday Night
Rain showers likely before 10pm, then a chance of rain and snow showers between 10pm and midnight, then a slight chance of snow showers after midnight. Some thunder is also possible. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. West wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. 
Sunday
A chance of snow showers before 1pm, then a chance of rain and snow showers between 1pm and 2pm, then a chance of rain showers after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40. West wind 7 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Little or no snow accumulation expected. 
Sunday Night
A chance of rain and snow showers before 8pm, then a slight chance of snow showers between 8pm and 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. West wind 3 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
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Snow showers will move into western NY by midnight
and expand eastward across western NY through Sunday morning. Snow
showers will then be mostly confined to the upslope regions east of
the Lake Erie including the Chautauqua Ridge while snow showers
taper off elsewhere across western NY Saturday night. A dusting is
possible across this region with snow accumulations of up to 2
inches on the Chautauqua Ridge. Low temperatures will reach the
upper 20s to low 30s Saturday night.

Snow showers will expand east-southeast of Lake Ontario Sunday
morning while mid-level moisture becomes depleted across western NY.
Snow intensity will wane east of Lake Erie with snow mixing with
rain before showers come to an end Sunday afternoon. Snow showers
will be enhanced on the Tug Hill Plateau by upslope processes and up
to an inch of snow accumulation possible. Elsewhere, warming
temperature during the day will cause snow to mix with rain and no
accumulation is expected. Cool Sunday with highs in the upper 30s to
low 40s.
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9 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I'm friends with Tom Niziol on FB and he posts videos on the daily of weather related content. He has 4-5" of snow today at his residence in Tennessee. crazy

The higher elevations of WV, like Snowshoe, are at 8 to 12 inches of snow on the day.

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2 hours ago, TugHillMatt said:

Shocking. It's going to do what it's done for the past several years. Go from late winter to months of 90 degrees.

This. It’s the new norm. I’m certain there isn’t much forecast skill or true modeling this far out, but what other anomaly would it be? 10 months out of each year now are AN with 2 BN. On a side note, end of April does look cold (relatively speaking)

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