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Upstate/Eastern New York-Springtime?


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...and then there were these lies from @BuffaloWeather

On 5/7/2020 at 1:28 AM, BuffaloWeather said:
Yeah you simply cannot judge a locations winter on 2 seasons. You need decades worth of living here to get a good grasp. Syracuse has had many epic snowstorms in the past, you will see some incredible stuff in the next few years.

:lol:

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9 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

...and then there were these lies from @BuffaloWeather

On 5/7/2020 at 1:28 AM, BuffaloWeather said:
Yeah you simply cannot judge a locations winter on 2 seasons. You need decades worth of living here to get a good grasp. Syracuse has had many epic snowstorms in the past, you will see some incredible stuff in the next few years.
 

:lol:

I underestimated the curse you’d bring. 3 year sample size is still not nearly enough 

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Looks like a little snow up north tonight/tomorrow..We will enjoy some rain lol

StormTotalSnowWeb (68).jpg

Later today, weak cold
front will settle across southern Ontario, before stalling there
into this evening. As that occurs, disturbance over Upper Great
Lakes causing narrow west to east oriented ribbon of mainly snow
into northern Michigan (depicted well by H925-H7 frontogenesis)
slides across northern Lake Ontario to the North Country. Temps just
warm enough for a mix east of Lake Ontario to start evening, but
then cool enough for only snow late evening and into the overnight.
The snow does not last too long though and ends by late tonight.
Seems that a few inches of wet snow could occur farther inland
east across the North Country before it ends. Not quite enough
for an advisory but with temps near freezing, untreated roads
could become snow covered and slippery across the North Country
late tonight.
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Weekend looking wet and chilly..

There remains high confidence that unsettled weather will impact our
region this weekend. Big question that remains is with respect to
the strength and exact track of the system. 15/00Z Canadian NH has
now moved toward the 15/00Z GFS camp, tracking a somewhat deeper low
pressure system just to the west of our area (windier scenario as
well), while the 15/00Z ECMWF remains steady keeping the center of
this (weaker) system passing just to our southeast.

Despite the differences in the exact track of the system, there is
strong model consensus for widespread precipitation across our area
Friday night through at least part of Saturday night, tapering off
from west to east on Sunday. As far as p-type, at this point setup
appears plenty warm enough for just plain rain Friday night into
Saturday on the front side of the storm. However, as the low moves
east of our area, colder air will wrap in on the back side of the
system. This may bring a rain changing to snow scenario Saturday
night across the higher terrain, with mainly a rain/snow mix across
the lower elevations. For Sunday, expect a rain/snow mix across the
higher terrain, with primarily liquid across the lower elevations.
Air aloft will not grow cold enough for any pure lake effect, but
may be just cold enough aloft for some lake enhancement downwind of
the Lakes, along with some enhanced precip across our northwesterly
flow upslope areas.
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Looks like Buffalo will win this year

GSB Cities The 2021 - 2022
Snow Season
Normal Average 
to Date
This Time 
Last Season
Normal
Seasons Average
All Time Season 
Snowfall Record
           
Buffalo 92.4 86.9 72.1 95.4 199.4 inches (1976 - 1977)
Rochester 82.8 91.4 64.9 102.0 161.7 inches (1959 - 1960)
Syracuse 67.2 116.8 69.0 127.8 192.1 inches (1992 - 1993)
Binghamton 65.4 75.4 99.9 86.5 135.2 inches (2016 - 2017)
Albany 33.6 52.4 54.1 59.2 112.5 inches (1970 - 1971)
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Heres a little clip from my Mt. Marshall hike last weekend. Sorry for the excessive breathing it was really steep. I will be putting together a 20-30 minute video after I complete all 46 later this year. I have clips from all my hikes and all the different people I climbed them with. This part of the trail was broken out, many others were not.

 

 

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1 hour ago, wolfie09 said:

We are at 40° here under cloudy skies with a forecast high of 52°.. Hrrr warms a little more this afternoon but still falls a little short of forecast..

sfct.us_ne - 2022-03-16T134023.945.png

Sun came out, jumped 10° in a little more than an hour, now it feels nice lol

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We won`t need a lucky shamrock to receive nice weather on Thursday.
Our forecast area will find itself in the sweet spot between the
aforementioned upper low (that will track by WELL to our south) and
an approaching frontal boundary that will stall over southern
Ontario. General subsidence between the two systems will support a
fair amount of sunshine for St Patrick`s Day...and with decent
mixing and H85 temps of 6/7c...max temps away from the lakes should
easily make it into at LEAST the low to mid 60s. The true pot of
gold though may very well be found in the Genesee valley and some of
the valleys of the Southern Tier...where full mixing...a bit of
localized downsloping and some four leaf clover luck could be enough
to allow for readings in the lower 70s.
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1 hour ago, rochesterdave said:

I wonder if Holiday Valley will even be open this weekend? 

You mean because of the rain?  They are having a huge festival there all day with bands so it should be full steam ahead, albeit a soggy day, I almost was going to go, glad I'm not now.  Next week is the Spring carnival and I plan to be there for that as long as it isnt raining, you gotta love watching that pond skimming at the bottom of Yodeler.  

Bristol is still 100 percent open with a 30-50 inch base.  I'll be there on Friday for some delightful slushy laps.

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1 hour ago, wolfie09 said:

As of right now CPC going with"near normal" probabilities, could go either way lol

814temp.new (64).gif

I would tend to believe in 2 days that outlook will be solid blue over the Great Lakes and North East. Could be pretty cold too as those anomalies on the euro and gfs would have temps in the 30’s.

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