Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,176
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Michael Butler
    Newest Member
    Michael Butler
    Joined

Spring/Summer 2022 Medium/Long Range Forecast Discussion.


John1122
 Share

Recommended Posts

8 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Looks like very high winds in the mountains and foothills overnight.  

Been a stormy day in west Tn so it’s headed y’alls way.  There are a few severe threats popping up this afternoon at the house.  Thunder and lightning has been pretty steady the past hour.  Picked up a little over an inch of rain so far.  

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

[mention=14393]PowellVolz[/mention], that is an amazing video that you posted on the VQ about the tornado that was in New Orleans.  As [mention=15028]AMZ8990[/mention] notes, stormy day indeed.

I just put it in the severe weather thread. Going through a populated downtown of a major city is definitely worst case scenario. Prayers for those people. I sent it to a friend of mine and he said…”looks like Ukraine”


.
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I feel like the wind has ween howling for like two weeks.  This is Wyoming everyday pretty much, but not here.  It seems like nearly every afternoon we have been hitting gusts almost over 30mph.  Sustained winds are around 15-20mph right now.  

Slight chance of snow showers/flurries tomorrow morning...

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Next time we see a La Nina show-up, it is probably worth discussing fire danger as well.  There have been two fires in the same area this year, and then the Gatlinburg fire a few years back.  I think all of those fires occurred during La Nina conditions. I think there are microclimates that tend to really dry out during those, specifically the Smokies and eastern side of the eastern TN River Valley.  Add those high winds to a pattern where it is somewhat dry, and there are conditions for forest fires.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, John1122 said:

Modeling suggests we aren't done with snow yet. They insist on snow showers and even accumulations along the Plateau, SEKy, SWVA and the Eastern Mountains as we head into next weekend. The GFS has been on this for about 8 days now.

Yeah, it has been steady.  Windy here yet again today.  Getting slightly worried about a summer which might turn dry, especially early.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Yeah, it has been steady.  Windy here yet again today.  Getting slightly worried about a summer which might turn dry, especially early.

I've been waiting on dry weather for 5 years. Once that 2016 drought broke its been incredibly rare to have any extended dry weather here. I think we had one dry month a few years ago from mid September into October. The water table is basically as full as it can possibly be over this way. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

We might go dry but 2016 dry was a anomaly. That whole year was messed up. I remember it was so warm in March that Bermuda was 90% in and then the Easter freezer happened and killed so many plants, trees and shrubs. Seems like we had almost a week of below freezing temps at night and a few nights it was low 20’s. Then from August to November it rained like just a few inches. It was so dry that Bermuda went dormant.


.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 4/2/2022 at 11:36 PM, John1122 said:

I've been waiting on dry weather for 5 years. Once that 2016 drought broke its been incredibly rare to have any extended dry weather here. I think we had one dry month a few years ago from mid September into October. The water table is basically as full as it can possibly be over this way. 

You all have done really well.  It is either feast or famine here.  March was very dry at TRI.  I have found it is very tough to make-up for a dry month during spring.  Just looking at the 12z GFS, this appears to be a year where the snows at higher elevations may not stop until late in the season.  After several warm weeks, we may be getting ready to return to normal or below.  My lettuce in my garden has been struggling due to warm temps during the afternoon and low ground moisture.  Hoping that changes back to a more normal spring-like temp cycle during the next few weeks.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

It’s been dry here too this month! According to old folklore, one of the things you never want to see in spring and summer is a rainbow. They usually portend long periods of dry or relatively dry weather coming up. Unfortunately for me on March 23, there was a rainbow after we picked up 0.36in of rain. The last system this past week put out 0.06 on Wed night and 0.04in on Thursday. This put my monthly total at 2.43in. Looking at model output for tomorrow it looks like NE TN is in a relative minimum again for precip. Not what you want to see when it’s getting dry. Hopefully we get back to a more normal rainfall pattern here soon.

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Also:

The deterministic models are becoming more unstable for Friday and
Saturday due to the cold air will producing very steep low-level
lapse rates especially during the afternoon hours. Ensembles and
deterministic models are in agreement now with CAPE of 100 to nearly
200+ so plenty of shower activity expected, especially during the
afternoon/early evening hours Friday.

The vertical CAPE profile is deep enough within the -14C degree
layer or colder to produce isolated thunder. Would not be surprised
to receive reports of graupel or even small hail with the stronger
showers and storms.

 

Thunder graup ! 

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

So, snow showers Saturday night and Sunday? Looks like there could at least be a dusting for that ever-favored area in western Cumberland County we talked about earlier in the year. 

If the MRX snow map is correct, looks like a dusting to .5 will be very common across NE TN.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I’m ready for spring to stay.  It’s been a cold soccer season so far. 

This is the first year my son (7) has played and it’s been almost miserable to this point. He’s had 3 games and 9 practices, all of those trips to field have been brutal but one.


.
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 4/7/2022 at 4:54 AM, Holston_River_Rambler said:

MRX is going with 4 - 6 above 5000 feet or so. I may have a chance to go above 5000 feet on Saturday, there will be pictures if I do. 

 

 

Any chance they're wrong and we might get more?  Probably the last snow anyway...

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Mr Bob unpinned this topic

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...