SchaumburgStormer Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 Still well south of the GFS, but closing the gap a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 4 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Still well south of the GFS, but closing the gap a bit. easy toss because its not GFS/NAM like!!!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 look at that orientation change 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 the ICON is going to lead the foreign models toward the GFS/NAM 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 Not sure I would even want to imagine half an inch of ice followed by 15" of snow in Chicago; city shutdown for dayz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, Kaner88 said: Not sure I would even want to imagine half an inch of ice followed by 15" of snow in Chicago; city shutdown for dayz If that combination were to happen somewhere (which I'm not at all sold on), it would probably be south of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 Taking a look at the Euro wind fields and expected snowfall rates, even its tamer output (compared to GFS/NAM) would be flirting with blizzard conditions in some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Taking a look at the Euro wind fields and expected snowfall rates, even its tamer output (compared to GFS/NAM) would be flirting with blizzard conditions in some areas. That’s what has been on my mind last few days even with a 3 to 5 incher would definitely be some crazy sights Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 For the LOT cwa, at this point I think there's enough confidence to start talking up a sig-major storm/impact in the area, while expressing the uncertainty that remains particularly farther north in the cwa. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 Yeah liking Chicago to Detroit for Sig Impacts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 Already flew home once for a storm & look how that turned out Can't go thru this again, rooting hard for a shift away from Chicago so I don't have to stare at these wild numbers lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CANNOTDIVIDEBY0 Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 I pray the fine people at IDOT will have the highways clear by Friday... Right!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 10 minutes ago, Hoosier said: For the LOT cwa, at this point I think there's enough confidence to start talking up a sig-major storm/impact in the area, while expressing the uncertainty that remains particularly farther north in the cwa. If I get to smell another siggy event while watching flurries, I may run headfirst into a wall. GHD III was brutal to be in the middle of the cutoff. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 On a very local level, one thing I'm curious about is if the cold front will get a little lake enhanced bump southward with the cold water temps and the main surface low still well upstream Wed night/early Thu. Would not materially affect things too much other than maybe a slightly quicker temp drop. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 hit 'em up boys^ hoosier getting eurythmics tingles 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fluoronium Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 NAM is quite generous with upright instability in areas receiving frozen precip. All of the models have substantial frozen precip rates regardless of where the storm ends up. Maybe there's a good shot at thundersnow somewhere with this??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 14, 2022 Author Share Posted February 14, 2022 12z EPS mean. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 If you had to blend all the model output over the past few days, this would be it. Very GHDIII ish 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 Just now, Frog Town said: If you had to blend all the model output over the past few days, this would be it. Very GHDIII ish Less the 25-35" amounts 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 Euro would be an epic mess for southern lower MI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 EPS mean quite a bit further north than the OP. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 Hasn't been talked about much but could envision there being a band of about an inch of sleet, possibly even a bit more in some spots. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 Unless there is a reversal later in the run, early read on 18z NAM is that it may bump southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 I guess GRR Meteorologist wanted to be done with the day early this is a bland AFD. LATEST UPDATE... Discussion/Marine/Hydro .DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Monday) Issued at 256 PM EST Mon Feb 14 2022 - Lake enhanced snow tapers off this evening Expect about another half inch to inch of snow this evening near Lake Michigan before subsidence associated with surface and upper ridging moves in and puts an end to the activity shortly after midnight. - Mid-week storm Attention continues to focus on forecast details indicated by ensemble trends for Wednesday-Thursday. The best bet at this point is to find a middle ground between the GFS and ECMWF precip totals, which currently would translate to rain amounts of 0.5 to 0.75 Wednesday followed by 6 to 10 inches of snow on Thursday. The GFS mean is closer to 10 inches, while the ECMWF is around 6 inches, with the higher amounts displaced further south than the GFS, although the 12Z ECMWF has trended a bit closer to the GFS. There is also a signal for some icing during the transition from rain to snow Wednesday night, but details on this are inherently even lower confidence than snow totals. In summary, the potential for snowfall greater than 5 inches across much of the forecast area between Wednesday night and Thursday evening may be increasing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 14 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Unless there is a reversal later in the run, early read on 18z NAM is that it may bump southeast. You mean orientation change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 23 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Unless there is a reversal later in the run, early read on 18z NAM is that it may bump southeast. Maybe a couple miles south at 75 hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 definite shift south on the 18z NAM. Really hits the Peoria to Chicago to Kalamazoo corridor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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