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Feb 1-3rd GHD III Part 3


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We're officially all snow, at 12z, ~4-8 hours earlier than short term guidance forecasted [RGEM, RAP, HRRR] up until 1 or 2 last night. I'm really looking forward to the afd as they also went with short term in suggesting changeover would occur sometime in mid morning through early afternoon. 

 

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8 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

1.5” ORD as of 6AM.


.

I believe LOT's call was for 1-2" by daybreak for them. So spot on. Believe I'm outpacing that out this way. And I was to be 1-2 by daybreak. Not going to achieve some of the higher numbers that were showing up last night on the near term models, but not shut out either(which was a concern). Will take my 4-8"(hopefully higher end) and run.

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2 hours ago, MikeGold said:

Rain/snow mix started at 5:30 just NW of Ann Arbor but still 36. Later than expected change over and lesser snows expected tomorrow have dropped expectations down to the 10 to 12 range. 

Yeah.  Models showed a changeover by 4 am.  Actual was was 6 am.  :(   Really like my call for 6"-8".

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Graphic from ILX, posted 2 hours ago. If Peoria has 6 inches now, we're on track for the expected 9-13" (maybe - I'm not sure how much we had when this was posted). They're expecting snow to end by early afternoon, so looks like they're not expecting the second wave to reach us.

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ILX keeps mentioning the possibility of a Blizzard Warning tomorrow. I know there's a lull expected later this afternoon/evening but have to wonder if they'll pull the trigger early? Definitely not 10:1 or lower ratios right now and gusty winds will keep snow blowing even during the lull in snow falling.

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13 minutes ago, Owensnow said:

Mean Plumes are still around 10 for DTW at 10:1

Understood.  Most of them show that I would have 2" on the ground already but I have about 1".  I understand that if ratio game works out I will bust low.  I'll take that risk.   My experience is the ratio game works a lot better on storms that my temps start in the teens to mid-20s.  Warmer rain to snow scenarios have tend to have more issues obtaining great ratios (they can but many don't).  My weather station temp right now is 31.9F.  

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