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Potential 1/28-1/30 2022 winter storm


Sandstorm94
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1 minute ago, chris624wx said:

18z HRDPS still brings some good snow into Hampton Roads, but the margin for error is razor thin. 

hrdps_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_36.png

Very close to the depicted good stuff, will be most interesting to see how the dynamics set up for precip field.

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Too bad all the fun in the Carolina’s is coming at night. Definitely serious now-casting. Some people going to wake up with bare dirt and scream “bust” while others 20 miles away have 4” will be screaming “overperformer.” I think it’s boom or bust, light rates are not going to cut it with borderline BL temps like they did last week and if you get fringed by one of those bands you’re not going to get much or anything. Think summertime thunderstorms if you want to know how this will play out

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5 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Too bad all the fun in the Carolina’s is coming at night. Definitely serious now-casting. Some people going to wake up with bare dirt and scream “bust” while others 20 miles away have 4” will be screaming “overperformer.” I think it’s boom or bust, light rates are not going to cut it with borderline BL temps like they did last week and if you get fringed by one of those bands you’re not going to get much or anything. Think summertime thunderstorms if you want to know how this will play out

Just your average popcorn variety snow. lol

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4 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Too bad all the fun in the Carolina’s is coming at night. Definitely serious now-casting. Some people going to wake up with bare dirt and scream “bust” while others 20 miles away have 4” will be screaming “overperformer.” I think it’s boom or bust, light rates are not going to cut it with borderline BL temps like they did last week and if you get fringed by one of those bands you’re not going to get much or anything. Think summertime thunderstorms if you want to know how this will play out

Agreed. It will be no more than a flizzard for many while a lucky few cash in.

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1 hour ago, burgertime said:

GFS also further east with the northern energy. That'll make a difference for everyone downstream if it keeps that pace of being slower than the models see. 

Do you think there is even time left looking at current observations and where energy and NS are for an earlier phase/ more negative tilt to get the low cranking off Hatteras as opposed to the Delmarva?

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12 minutes ago, Tigerchick224 said:

Question…is the leeside event some models are showing different from the mesolow forming? I am just learning and curious. Thanks!


.

Upslope flow from the NE, called orographic lift. Causes moisture to lift against the mountains and condense, forming precip. That is a separate event from the discussed mesolow, but the presence of it can help the upslope if it's in the right position.

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5 minutes ago, VBsurf said:

They did real decent last storm. This is such a dynamic system its going to be awesome watching it evolve here on the coast. 

Awesome or a big letdown. I'm leaning toward the latter. Going to be tough to get that Coastal going in time for us. Most likely get a few hours of wind-driven light snow on the backside after she blows up north of our latitude.  We actually may be in that no snow screw Zone. Time will tell. No big deal either way. One thing is a guarantee is that wind will be fierce. 

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1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Too bad all the fun in the Carolina’s is coming at night. Definitely serious now-casting. Some people going to wake up with bare dirt and scream “bust” while others 20 miles away have 4” will be screaming “overperformer.” I think it’s boom or bust, light rates are not going to cut it with borderline BL temps like they did last week and if you get fringed by one of those bands you’re not going to get much or anything. Think summertime thunderstorms if you want to know how this will play out

So basically youll get snow while few miles west nothing.  Very similar to the summer storms here lol.  

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