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Potential 1/28-1/30 2022 winter storm


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15 minutes ago, wake4est said:

Oof. Through 44 the HRRRRRR is doing well for the Piedmont, complete whiff for the Triangle.

Not sure this qualifies as a whiff. I see 1 inch of snow for most of the triangle with 1-3” west of there based on this depiction of a mesoscale feature. I think most would live with this event 

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While we sip our Maalox this morning I finally posted some video I took during the last event:



As it stands if that lee side meso low continues to appear I will have to factor it in to my forecast update for sure. This is not an easy one.

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1 minute ago, eyewall said:

While we sip our Maalox this morning I finally posted some video I took during the last event:



As it stands if that lee side meso low continues to appear I will have to factor it in to my forecast update for sure. This is not an easy one.

I love the video from that heavy band. Wish we’d spent another two hours in it. Was really coming down 

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Not trying to be rude…. But as some have mentioned in our Sanitarium the play by play here is insane …. I read our play by play and it’s everyone saying 30 different things. Meanwhile I go to Mid-A Forum it’s saying something completely different, unfortunately I don’t have time to look for myself this AM but can we all come to some sort of agreement unspoken to not crown or toss a model run 3 frames in please ? 

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1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said:

NAM seems to be farther east this time. Less precip in the Triangle, more east of Wake. Crazy how different the models are with where the precip is less than 36 hours out. 

 ref1km_ptype.us_ma.png

No.

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Just now, BornAgain13 said:

That was an ugly NAM run with the exception of Eastern NC

Everyone is focused on precip when the low hasn't even formed yet. Models are hydrostatic. 500mb is what should be analyzed. 

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I think the last few weeks has shown that the NAM is not reliable at all.  Brad P even mentioned concerns about its reliability over the last few years since they are transitioning to FV3 and HRRR.  
If you throw out the "bad runs", you also need to throw out the "good" runs. 

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