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Potential 1/28-1/30 2022 winter storm


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For those still learning and getting confused on what to look for etc.. Euro/NAM is really exciting because it does a big phase which will typically create dynamic weather across a large portion of the southeast. 00z Euro and the NAM tonight really do something special. So what is a phase? Let's use the 00z Euro run tonight to paint the picture:

You can see on the map below there are three pieces of energy floating across the US. If these stay as they are essentially separate from each other you end up with small storms across small pockets of the states. What we want to see is these three pieces doing the magic dance and combining to form one big piece of energy like the second image. 

27_1_00z_Euro_phase_1.png.df53cb4ea55188b7559f2a124babe329.png

27_1_00Z_Euro_phased.png.7bdf4209d4c877e20e972a0efcdcddc8.png

Past runs across models have shown this happening so, what's different? The problem is that previously this phase was staying positively tilted or neutral. When we say "positive tilt", "neutral tilt" and "negative tilt" what do we mean? This is the orientation of that energy. The Euro and NAM have it go neutral early vs. the GFS.  This is an interesting song where if it goes neutral to negative just in time you can get a bomb. When a storm is positively tilted it can push moisture too far south. If it's negative it can pull moisture up. 

27_1_00z_GFS_positive.png.cb0d1e4bd676b7916335e451a45f931d.png27_1_00Z_Euro_NUTREAL.png.27bad4dff984730be60a43750ea118f2.png

 

The Euro goes negative just in the nick of time. But what we want to see is for it to go negative just a tick earlier. You can see below all that deep orange and red below. That is a lot of energy which should create dynamics conducive for snow across NC.  

27_1_00Z_Euro_Negative.png.cf5d13d017a8719b307c0da985c96259.png

All and all this could be a big surprise if we keep seeing these trends. This has always been reliant on a perfect phase and it's pretty damn close. 

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5 minutes ago, burgertime said:

For those still learning and getting confused on what to look for etc.. Euro/NAM is really exciting because it does a big phase which will typically create dynamic weather across a large portion of the southeast. 00z Euro and the NAM tonight really do something special. So what is a phase? Let's use the 00z Euro run tonight to paint the picture:

You can see on the map below there are three pieces of energy floating across the US. If these stay as they are essentially separate from each other you end up with small storms across small pockets of the states. What we want to see is these three pieces doing the magic dance and combing to form one big piece of energy like the second image. 

27_1_00z_Euro_phase_1.png.df53cb4ea55188b7559f2a124babe329.png

27_1_00Z_Euro_phased.png.7bdf4209d4c877e20e972a0efcdcddc8.png

Past runs across models have shown this happening so, what's different? The problem is that previously this phase was staying positively tilted or neutral. When we say "positive tilt", "neutral tilt" and "negative tilt" what do we mean? This is the orientation of that energy. The Euro and NAM have it go neutral early vs. the GFS.  This is an interesting song where if it goes neutral to negative just in time you can get a bomb. When a storm is positively tilted it can push moisture too far south. If it's negative it can pull moisture up. 

27_1_00z_GFS_positive.png.cb0d1e4bd676b7916335e451a45f931d.png27_1_00Z_Euro_NUTREAL.png.27bad4dff984730be60a43750ea118f2.png

 

The Euro goes negative just in the nick of time. But what we want to see is for it to go negative just a tick earlier. You can see below all that deep orange and red below. That is a lot of energy which should create dynamics conducive for snow across NC.  

27_1_00Z_Euro_Negative.png.cf5d13d017a8719b307c0da985c96259.png

All and all this could be a big surprise if we keep seeing these trends. This has always been reliant on a perfect phase and it's pretty damn close. 

Thank you for taking the time to explain these concepts, Burgertime. It is very helpful in understanding what we are look at and for!

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49 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Waking up looking at the morning runs like meh... need some better phasing... the NAM,  of course took a step back from its great run at 0Z...  and others are still similar...

It didn’t look too bad at 5h just came out drier on the sfc…which given qpfs are usually overdone it could be more realistic. 

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22 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

RDPS looked good, too. Seems like it's a battle of the short range vs the globals. The GFS does look better than the Euro for here, though. 

sn10_acc.us_ma.png

Very similar to the RGEM, perhaps ever so slightly further west.

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10 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

RGEM is the RDPS (confusing I know)

Really now? I figured they were different because tropical tidbits had them listed separately lol. Thanks for letting me know! I see RDPS is listed as the GEM's pilot model. Makes sense now.

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5 hours ago, burgertime said:

For those still learning and getting confused on what to look for etc.. Euro/NAM is really exciting because it does a big phase which will typically create dynamic weather across a large portion of the southeast. 00z Euro and the NAM tonight really do something special. So what is a phase? Let's use the 00z Euro run tonight to paint the picture:

You can see on the map below there are three pieces of energy floating across the US. If these stay as they are essentially separate from each other you end up with small storms across small pockets of the states. What we want to see is these three pieces doing the magic dance and combining to form one big piece of energy like the second image. 

27_1_00z_Euro_phase_1.png.df53cb4ea55188b7559f2a124babe329.png

27_1_00Z_Euro_phased.png.7bdf4209d4c877e20e972a0efcdcddc8.png

Past runs across models have shown this happening so, what's different? The problem is that previously this phase was staying positively tilted or neutral. When we say "positive tilt", "neutral tilt" and "negative tilt" what do we mean? This is the orientation of that energy. The Euro and NAM have it go neutral early vs. the GFS.  This is an interesting song where if it goes neutral to negative just in time you can get a bomb. When a storm is positively tilted it can push moisture too far south. If it's negative it can pull moisture up. 

27_1_00z_GFS_positive.png.cb0d1e4bd676b7916335e451a45f931d.png27_1_00Z_Euro_NUTREAL.png.27bad4dff984730be60a43750ea118f2.png

 

The Euro goes negative just in the nick of time. But what we want to see is for it to go negative just a tick earlier. You can see below all that deep orange and red below. That is a lot of energy which should create dynamics conducive for snow across NC.  

27_1_00Z_Euro_Negative.png.cf5d13d017a8719b307c0da985c96259.png

All and all this could be a big surprise if we keep seeing these trends. This has always been reliant on a perfect phase and it's pretty damn close. 

What a great and informative post, thanks!!!

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For what is worth the 6z HRRR showed a very similar setup as Euro with rotating a band of moisture through the Foothills and NW Piedmont into Upstate SC. It too is trying to pop a low under the foot of the mountains. I know it's the HRRR at long range but definitely something to keep an eye on for folks around 77 and 85 corridor.

Screenshot_20220127-072633.png

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1 minute ago, WXNewton said:

For what is worth the 6z HRRR showed a very similar setup as Euro with rotating a band of moisture through the Foothills and NW Piedmont into Upstate SC. It too is trying to pop a low under the foot of the mountains. I know it's the HRRR at long range but definitely something to keep an eye on for folks around 77 and 85 corridor.

Screenshot_20220127-072633.png

RGEM depicts FGEN banding in that same area.

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8 minutes ago, WXNewton said:

For what is worth the 6z HRRR showed a very similar setup as Euro with rotating a band of moisture through the Foothills and NW Piedmont into Upstate SC. It too is trying to pop a low under the foot of the mountains. I know it's the HRRR at long range but definitely something to keep an eye on for folks around 77 and 85 corridor.

Screenshot_20220127-072633.png

Yep, it's some love from the ULL, with some enhancement from the jet as the trough goes negative. The mid-Atlantic forum is bemoaning the fact that all the best dynamics for this feature are down here, so that's always a good sign

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7 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

Congrats for the Spartanburg to Charlotte to Greensboro area. You guys are getting 2-4 inches from the meso-low. 

why are you saying that like it's a certainty..no one knows exactly where these bands set up.  you'll get people excited only to be disappointed.  Allan Huffman touches on this in his first call map.

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2 minutes ago, wxdawg10 said:

why are you saying that like it's a certainty..no one knows exactly where these bands set up.  you'll get people excited only to be disappointed.  Allan Huffman touches on this in his first call map.

First time?

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