Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[skierinvermont]

9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I wasn't talking about Moosup. Westerly had 25 inches on the shore. Also Jan 15 Groton had 25 with N winds

Yeah I saw the Jan 15 at Groton. It's patchy though. I'm pretty confident my parents have never had 2'+ in the last 25 years. And I don't think they would have in 96 or 78 either. So possibly never? Maybe in 78.. I couldn't find a detaled map for that one but I thought the bigger totals were east

[nianticct]

31 minutes ago, skierinvermont said:

Sure but you have to consider the downsloping and climo.. all the models show a gap in the snow there. SE CT, S RI and south shore of MA have basically never seen 24"+, maybe once, and 18"+ is extremely rare. 

And yet almost all the maps have these areas in either 18"+ or 24"+

We don't download in se ct ! Snow holes here are due to banding on either side of us ! Which is just bad luck! 

[ROOSTA]

Had to do it.
THE NAM at its height!
Surface Winds

 

[Greg]

6 minutes ago, FXWX said:

See... Good things happen to people who are willing to wait and believe in it!  Trust your instincts...

I believe in some areas it will be comparable if these models hold but I don't think everywhere in Eastern MASS.

[wxsniss]

1 hour ago, andyhb said:

Ok what in the actual f*ck...

Yeah unreal

That goes through Boston metro area and much of eastern MA 15z-21z Sat

In case people missed it in the torrent of posts... check out these soundings from 18z NAM... easily 3-4"/hr... why the AFD is talking about "exceptional to extreme snowfall rates":

[nianticct]

Just now, nianticct said:

We don't download in se ct ! Snow holes here are due to banding on either side of us ! Which is just bad luck! 

 

[Ginx snewx]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Like we said earlier, lots of time for ticks. About 3 more runs worth or so.

 

Y'all tickle me pink I think I'd just rather have Pink tickle me Hickory dickory dock, tickety tock tickety A little bit of the diggedy doc diggedy Mixed with a little bit of the  Wit a pinch of Biggie Look at me, I'm just the bomb diggedy

[Greg]

2 minutes ago, skierinvermont said:

Yeah I saw the Jan 15 at Groton. It's patchy though. I'm pretty confident my parents have never had 2'+ in the last 25 years. And I don't think they would have in 96 or 78 either. So possibly never? Maybe in 78.. I couldn't find a detaled map for that one but I thought the bigger totals were east

I think Groton, CT itself had 17-18" there in '78 if I'm not mistaken.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Runaway jacking himself to 24” +

Stop it bro. You may have me at 12” if we don’t slide back east but 24+ and now you’re just clowning me. 

[NotSureWeather]

Flurries for EWB, storm is starting really early.

[Greg]

2 minutes ago, NotSureWeather said:

Flurries for EWB, storm is starting really early.

No

[DavisStraight]

12 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Harvey going 24+ inside 495.

Bouchard's still on the conservative side with his totals but said he may have to slide the higher totals west, looked like he combined the GFS with the other models and split the difference.

[ice1972]

40 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This will be comparable to 1978 in terms of snowfall...nothing else

Gov Lamont doing best Gov Grasso impression hoofing it down snow clogged Farmington Ave in Hartford to the Armory….lol 

[203whiteout]

15 minutes ago, skierinvermont said:

yes I think the downloping is worse from Westport/Newport over to the CT river. Only 12-18 for SE CT in '05

What is downsloping? I’m on the coast here in Fairfield CT and it seems we have had a pretty good run here with 2’+ storms. 2006 was great for us (30”), 2013 was great (35”) we do well with those (further west than modeled) death bands. They seem to set up in a similar location every time almost running through interior Maine SW through NH/VT and then south through western Mass and western/central CT. Hope you guys do well with this one.

[NotSureWeather]

Just now, Greg said:

No

I’m kidding, figured that was obvious. Lol.

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

These are my favorite maps to look at 

That's Feb 2013 band right there

[JC-CT]

6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Stop it bro. You may have me at 12” if we don’t slide back east but 24+ and now you’re just clowning me. 

He wasn't talking about snow

[WxFreak11]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

That's Feb 2013 band right there

Yikes in RI!

[SnowlieSnowstormson]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

That's Feb 2013 band right there

Where would the band set up in relation to the black/grey shading? On top of it or just the left?

[skierinvermont]

5 minutes ago, 203whiteout said:

What is downsloping? I’m on the coast here in Fairfield CT and it seems we have had a pretty good run here with 2’+ storms. 2006 was great for us (30”), 2013 was great (35”) we do well with those (further west than modeled) death bands. They seem to set up in a similar location every time almost running through interior Maine SW through NH/VT and then south through western Mass and western/central CT. Hope you guys do well with this one.

the sinking air from the ORH hills and NE CT is the opposite of what you need for precip which requires rising motion and condensation

I think just being farther west in an area that is favored by storm track is key for Fairfield and New Haven counties. Might make up for the downsoping. But Lyme CT may not have ever seen a 24"+ snowstorm in 100 years, while they seem to occur regurarly in coastal Fairlfiend and NHV counties. 

[ice1972]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

That's Feb 2013 band right there

Please God yes please…..all time that was

[Spaizzo]

6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

That's Feb 2013 band right there

Feb 2013 watching the snow pour or dump was insanity. Plows broke, plows stranded we were down to 1-2 working city plows. Emergencies were called off unless it was extreme and those were transported by a police hummer one of the few vehicles able to get though.took a week to cleanup roads 

[Greg]

4 minutes ago, SnowlieSnowstormson said:

Where would the band set up in relation to the black/grey shading? On top of it or just the left?

Usually that frontogen ends up being on the northern and western rim of that, think back over 2 weeks ago and where the true frontogen was vs modeled by the latest models at that time.

[nianticct]

1 minute ago, skierinvermont said:

the sinking air from the ORH hills and NE CT is the opposite of what you need for precip which requires rising motion and condensation

I think just being farther west in an area that is favored by storm track is key for Fairfield and New Haven counties. Might make up for the downsoping. But Lyme CT may not have ever seen a 24"+ snowstorm in 100 years, while they seem to occur regurarly in coast Fairlfiend and NHV counties. 

Your way off base!  New london Dec 19 2009 23 inches plus many more storms over the years ! It's either Temps  or bad banding that screw us!

[JC-CT]

2 minutes ago, SnowlieSnowstormson said:

Where would the band set up in relation to the black/grey shading? On top of it or just the left?

climatologically favored area, of course

[JC-CT]

[JC-CT]

gotta find an example of 700

[JC-CT]

[skierinvermont]

6 minutes ago, nianticct said:

Your way off base!  New london Dec 19 2009 23 inches plus many more storms over the years ! It's either Temps  or bad banding that screw us!

23" is less than 24" and is common in the rest of sne. I only measured 19" in that storm. 100 years of bad banding isn't bad luck it's downsloping combined with being too far se for most storms.

[Ginx snewx]

Forky posted