Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[40/70 Benchmark]

I salute this run

[Henry's Weather]

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Wait-you were in 4th grade in 2013?   You come off much more mature than expected if that’s true!   That makes you about 18 now?

Thanks man! Yeah I'm a freshman currently

[dmcginvt]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I salute this run

I'm in the 5 in and I am happy with it

[40/70 Benchmark]

WOR....STOP WORRYING.

You have margin for error on that map, and keep in mind...I agree east kicks are still likely, but model QPF is NOT going to capture the full extent of that deformation, so its not far enough west to begin with. NVM that this has so much s stream origin.

This is NOT Juno....this is NOT March 2018.....this is on another level as far as regional impact, though probably similar east.

This will be the most severe regional impactor in 9 years-

Period.

[DavisStraight]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I salute this run

Look at those totals on the Jersey coast, that's unusual.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, DavisStraight said:

Look at those totals on the Jersey coast, that's unusual.

Those will probably shrivel some going forward.

[Blizzard-on-GFS]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Those will probably shrivel some going forward.

Hey hey, be nice, my house is over that jackpot lol

[weathafella]

5 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

Thanks man! Yeah I'm a freshman currently

Excellent!   Keep up the good work-and forget what I said about sleeping...gonna delete that.

[dmcginvt]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Those will probably shrivel some going forward.

to be fair south jersey shore has more than philly at this point

[Henry's Weather]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Excellent!   Keep up the good work-and forget what I said about sleeping...gonna delete that.

Please don't worry about that, I've been on the thread for years

[ROOSTA]

A step closer to detailed finer points.
A thousand miles away and still get stoked. You can take the person out of New England, but you can never take New England out of the person.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

55 minutes ago, weathafella said:

972 peak

 

 

Actually peaks at 968mb, as opposed to 966 at 12z.

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, dmcginvt said:

to be fair south jersey shore has more than philly at this point

I understand that, but does that have to do with anything?

[wxsniss]

Awesome look for New England, and reflects the slightly later capture...

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said:

Hey hey, be nice, my house is over that jackpot lol

I feel confident this may capture a bit less/later as we move forward....maybe I'm wrong. It may have done most of the correcting already, though.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Awesome look for New England, and reflects the slightly later capture...

Yea, most LBSW members gone bye-bye.

[Organizing Low]

17 minutes ago, dmcginvt said:

I'm in the 5 in and I am happy with it

There’s been more than enough winter around here, as my car battery can attest to.  And there’s 3 more months to come. 
 

hope this one buries those to the SE. 

[Henry's Weather]

4 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Awesome look for New England, and reflects the slightly later capture...

Wraparound snows for hours and hours.... wow

[Henry's Weather]

This seems to be shaping up as a storm which starts in the wee hours of Friday overnight with that WAAish precursor precip, and just blasts a CCB from mid morning to early evening, with heavy snows continuing into Saturday overnight. Solid 24 hour precip event

[40/70 Benchmark]

26 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I salute this run

I think the GEM is more realistic and much closer to reality further down the coast in Jersey.

 

[Henry's Weather]

Not to get carried away, but it seems like we might have a 12 hour window of heavy heavy precip, bookended by 6 hour periods of moderate precip. It's not everyday that you get that. In fact, it's not even most days.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Remarkable agreement between GEM and EURO on placement of the band....GEM just captures later.

[The 4 Seasons]

4 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

Not to get carried away, but it seems like we might have a 12 hour window of heavy heavy precip, bookended by 6 hour periods of moderate precip. It's not everyday that you get that. In fact, it's not even most days.

Feb 1-3 2021 was a solid 24 hour event in CT, a solid daytime one too. probably one of the best snow storms of my life, checked all the boxes

[dmcginvt]

15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I understand that, but does that have to do with anything?

sorry I grew up in philly and that was rare, that is all

[TheSnowman]

This is an Absurdly Difficult Call.  

I would be pissing off about 40 different people in about 5 different friend groups, miss a Recording, miss a $1000 private gig, basically not get money back for the early returned rental car, Miss Sledding in the Snow at Mt. Whitney up Rte. 2 in LA, and Miss about 7 flipping meetings.  

Again.  Unless I'm 90% GUARANTEED 24", I can Not do this.  

[Henry's Weather]

Anyone have EPS mean? Wanna see that d-drip material before I drift off to sleep

[Henry's Weather]

This is nuts, it's gonna be one of the big ones. It's been a while, since I don't consider March 2018 to be a bona-fide blizzard. And during the day?? What a thought. Perhaps it's a tad early, but it seems like my area makes out like a bandit on both extremes of the model envelope, so I'm substantially less neurotic about these next 3 days than would seem "warranted"

[mattb65]

17 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

This is an Absurdly Difficult Call.  

I would be pissing off about 40 different people in about 5 different friend groups, miss a Recording, miss a $1000 private gig, basically not get money back for the early returned rental car, Miss Sledding in the Snow at Mt. Whitney up Rte. 2 in LA, and Miss about 7 flipping meetings.  

Again.  Unless I'm 90% GUARANTEED 24", I can Not do this.  

You aren't going to have a 90% guarantee of 24"+ even with a perfect track.  Too much uncertainty in where banding will set up to predict who gets 24"+ with that level of precision.

 

I salute you for even considering pissing that many people off to chase a snow storm. 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Those will probably shrivel some going forward.

Looks like a big storm from there all the way to New England.  I could see all of us getting 20 plus.

 

[Henry's Weather]

We really should step back and appreciate the magnitude of what just might happen. Storms of this scope and magnitude are not common.