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Late January and February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

As for the talked about pattern "flip" for Feb, this is still a pretty cold look for the first week, and it might offer some better chances with more of a gradient type pattern. The risk would be storm tracks to the north/west.

1644127200-BmrpRIODUec.png

Yea a -epo -pna pattern isn’t necessarily a torch here. It is if it’s a -5 pna like Dec but that was crazy. Assuming we don’t go back to that we would have opportunities with boundary waves and trailing waves with as much cold as there is in North America this year. As long as we don’t lose the epo there is at least hope. 

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  • WxUSAF pinned this topic

One thing that looks to remain is the fact that the coldest air (relative to avg) in the NH will continue to reside in NA.  I wouldn't mind a gradient pattern with Arctic air pressing under some minor south east ridging.  Obviously, the risk is always there that we end up on the wrong side.

 

 

 

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  • WxUSAF changed the title to Late January and February Medium/Long Range Discussion
15 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

If it ain't snow, it can go.  

And it wouldn’t be barring some major model shifting with a lot of pieces, namely getting rid of that low to our north and replacing it with a high. Don’t see it happening 

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1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

And it wouldn’t be barring some major model shifting with a lot of pieces, namely getting rid of that low to our north and replacing it with a high. Don’t see it happening 

lol, compare 6z gfs and 12z and like hr 138 (nothing to do with that Tuesday thing).  It's hilarious.  vastly different.   Anything we track is gonna be a sneaker system.  No way they get this shit right with changes every 6 hrs

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Just now, HighStakes said:

Becoming more likely to see some light snow Sunday afternoon. GFS has an inch or so up this way.

Maybe some light clipper action Sunday night.  Been starting to show up east of the mountains on some recent runs.

1643025600-LZZkxfIuHWg.png

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3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

lol, compare 6z gfs and 12z and like hr 138 (nothing to do with that Tuesday thing).  It's hilarious.  vastly different.   Anything we track is gonna be a sneaker system.  No way they get this shit right with changes every 6 hrs

Damn...this is one of those situations where you'd never know how different things are just by looking at the surface maps near us.

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3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

lol, compare 6z gfs and 12z and like hr 138 (nothing to do with that Tuesday thing).  It's hilarious.  vastly different.   Anything we track is gonna be a sneaker system.  No way they get this shit right with changes every 6 hrs

At hour 150 I hit the “Prev. Run” and “Next Run” buttons on TT like 6 times because I thought I was looking at the wrong thing. 
 

To be generous, 6z looks like it got bad chili. 12z isn’t THAT different from earlier runs at that point.

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