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January 20-22 “bring the mojo” winter storm threat


lilj4425
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1 minute ago, Avdave said:

she did mention the triangle area.

"We will still see impactful winter weather and accumulations on Thursday night (including the Triangle) and parts of our viewing area will still see a major winter storm Friday"

"and" differentiator so it's ambiguous.  (including the Triangle) could be referencing the former and not the latter.

But it's petty for this thread.

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I love the gfs right where it is for us coastal folks.  It already has my boys out of school on Friday here in Myrtle beach lol.  Can you believe they want them to do virtual school on a snow day?  I’ll just say we lost power.  Good chance we do anyways

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I liken the models to a carpenter's toolbelt where the hammer does not build the house.  It is the hammer (wx model) in the hands of a skilled carpenter (meteorologist) to build a forecast package.

Models interpret the myriad of variables to print out a single solution.  Someone wrote earlier correctly "every model is wrong" are words fitly written.

It is the forecaster's challenge to select and sharpen the tools in their toolbelt to APPLY to his/her understanding of climatology e.g. under-modeling CAD, NW trend, cold chasing rain along with the effects of a mountain range to our west and an ocean to our east, to render a forecast.

For those who missed the Carolina Weather Group video which ended a short while ago, the crux of the "expert's" comments were "we don't know what will fall" and the event is more of a "nowcasting." smh

I think Brick has a right to object to model inconsistencies but what I think he and others miss is the injest of model data is only a portion of the forecasting job.

Hoping the "Brick boycotting" will come to an end where everyone can be tolerate of each other's hopes, aspirations, disappointments as we share a common interest in the weather.

Color me grateful we have something to track for the upcoming system and possibly again later next week. 

In my 40+ years of hair-pulling NC winter wx, the safe bet is anything short of a perfect setup (strong HP with cold, dry air just east of the Great Lakes and strong GoM low pressure tracking N/NE near Savannah/Charleston) the result is most often an underperforming winter storm compared to the forecasts.

It is why systems rarely overperform although modeling often does especially with frz rain plots.

ANONmet_GSO

 

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Just watched WRAL 11pm weather.  They have completely abandoned any snowfall amount predictions now

Forget this chart we know it's old. 

What's odd is they did not even hazard to go with an updated one in the broadcast but rather punted to tomorrow morning.  Sort of disappointed they backed off the courage to do that.

Capture.PNG.eb79e66f59eeddac863ca6c4980126f0.PNG

 

 

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12 minutes ago, 85snowline said:

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY issued for Union and Cabarrus Counties in NC..  and for Chester County in SC. Why GSP omitted Mecklenburg and York County SC is beyond me. 

More like why they even issued a WWA for any of their counties at all is beyond me. It’s gonna be 70 and sunny this weekend at the rate this system is going. 

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4 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

More like why they even issued a WWA for any of their counties at all is beyond me. It’s gonna be 70 and sunny this weekend at the rate this system is going. 

Dont know...but I am still on board with this potential storm. As BP said earlier tonight... when these fronts stall down South in winter very often they surprise us!

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Interestingly, the GFS brings the main round of snow late Friday night/early Sat morning on the 6z run. Honestly I still don't think there is a good handle on all these little shortwaves and how they will interact with the front. I don't think any forecast an be one of high confidence and bust potential is high everywhere in either direction.

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I’m glad GFS came back west some and shows slight interaction between the NS and SS. However don’t we really want to see this on short range models like the NAM or HRR? Do the globals do a better job than the mesoscale models as far as upper air patterns?

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We’re inside 24 hours now and there is a suite of models thar gives me anywhere between 4-8 inches of snow and another suite that doesn’t have anything. No in between. At this stage I have no idea what to trust. This is that rare setup where you’re going to have to have to go against a significant amount of modeling either way you forecast this storm inside 24 hours. One of these scenarios will be right and one will be completely wrong and we still don’t know which to roll with inside 24 hours, amazing 

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We’re inside 24 hours now and there is a suite of models thar gives me anywhere between 4-8 inches of snow and another suite that doesn’t have anything. No in between. At this stage I have no idea what to trust. This is that rare setup where you’re going to have to have to go against a significant amount of modeling either way you forecast this storm inside 24 hours. One of these scenarios will be right and one will be completely wrong and we still don’t know which to roll with inside 24 hours, amazing 
Easy answer is roll with the lesser amount

Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk

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