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January 20-22 “bring the mojo” winter storm threat


lilj4425
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12 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

I wonder if Fishel will change his tune about the Euro. Models are all over the place. I just hope we are not seeing a repeat of Izzy. Even though it's a different setup, it would be crushing to have the same result with the mid levels turning our snow to ice. Right now with no model consistency it's still anyone's ballgame. 

Unfortunately, it could be nothing as well...?  I.e. no storm, just cold?

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1642723200-rO8i7E1rYjs.png
1642852800-RFir6oqeXpA.png

1642723200-tvNsr5ucE7M.png

1642852800-ZHMU6OD6WY0.png

The Euro doesn't really separate the two waves where as the GFS does. The Euro develops a single low and bombs it out as phasing occurs. The GFS has a more distinct separation and delays the second vortmax a bit resulting in the weak impulse first with the FROPA followed by the main wave late in the weekend. Of course as mentioned, we know the strength of the SE ridge will play a key role here as well.

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4 minutes ago, eyewall said:

1642723200-rO8i7E1rYjs.png
1642852800-RFir6oqeXpA.png

1642723200-tvNsr5ucE7M.png

1642852800-ZHMU6OD6WY0.png

The Euro doesn't really separate the two waves where as the GFS does. The Euro develops a single low and bombs it out as phasing occurs. The GFS has a more distinct separation and delays the second vortmax a bit resulting in the weak impulse first with the FROPA followed by the main wave late in the weekend. Of course as mentioned, we know the strength of the SE ridge will play a key role here as well.

Let's see if the 18z gfs still has it (2 waves) that way.  Any chance the euro has this wrong?

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A part of why the last system had such profound mid-level warming which helped was the SST anomalies. The Atlantic is quite warm,. Good for amping up storms with the baroclinicity but bad for those rooting against profound warm noses. That is a factor to remember with these next ones too:
https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/data_current/5km/v3.1_op/daily/png/ct5km_ssta_v3.1_nwcl_current.png

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20 minutes ago, eyewall said:

A part of why the last system had such profound mid-level warming which helped was the SST anomalies. The Atlantic is quite warm,. Good for amping up storms with the baroclinicity but bad for those rooting against profound warm noses. That is a factor to remember with these next ones too:
https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/data_current/5km/v3.1_op/daily/png/ct5km_ssta_v3.1_nwcl_current.png

The warm nose actually underperformed in most areas and there was more sleet than ZR.

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37 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

The warm nose actually underperformed in most areas and there was more sleet than ZR.

At the same time, we saw models bit by bit, speed up the timing of the changeover to sleet. Of course this had mostly go do with the storm slowing down and the ULL cutting west of the Apps. I do think in general, the models had a reasonable grasp on the temp profiles in the end. Point is, I think most of the time outcomes have more to do with the track of the low, strength of the high, etc. than bad physics of the model

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35 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

The warm nose actually underperformed in most areas and there was more sleet than ZR.

Nah the warm nose aloft was pretty well modeled. It was always a fine line between sleet and ZR. Asheville transition to sleet by midday. 
 

The reason sleet prevailed in many spots (instead of ZR) is because of the very impressive surface cold layer….in terms of actual temps and depth up to at least 925mb. 

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12 minutes ago, msuwx said:

Nah the warm nose aloft was pretty well modeled. It was always a fine line between sleet and ZR. Asheville transition to sleet by midday. 
 

The reason sleet prevailed in many spots (instead of ZR) is because of the very impressive surface cold layer….in terms of actual temps and depth up to at least 925mb. 

I should’ve been more skeptical of freezing rain at 23 degrees as modeled by some models. 

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Watch the energy which is trying to phase into the southern s/w.. it's trended faster recently but if it starts reversing that trend it's going to be a bigger phase... e.g CMC/Euro runs from late Sat/early yesterday

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1 minute ago, Wow said:

Watch the energy which is trying to phase into the southern s/w.. it's trended faster recently but if it starts reversing that trend it's going to be a bigger phase... e.g CMC/Euro runs from late Sat/early yesterday

Ok, confused again. Faster phase means more ice in central NC/SC right?

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