paweather Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Skiers on MT Washington will be getting pelted by sleet per the nam. Geezus that bad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Sigh, this freakin NAM. Like the literal definition of a turd in the punch bowl lol. I will say the 3k NAM looks better than the 12k, at least that roughly gets the 2” line to the Susky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, anotherman said: Congrats Cleveland... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Good thing it’s the long range NAM…. It had 2 good days in January of 2016…otherwise it’s just entertainment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 15, 2022 Author Share Posted January 15, 2022 Forget the OP's and think how bad the ensemble mean has been over the last several days even if the best case euro is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 13 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Good thing it’s the long range NAM…. It had 2 good days in January of 2016…otherwise it’s just entertainment. LOL - it might not be a good model but it's had a lot more wins than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Forget the OP's and think how bad the ensemble mean has been over the last several days even if the best case euro is right. Facts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Lol well, there’s that. Wth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 By the way, the NAM has never liked this storm from the very beginning. Every model has been trending towards it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 15, 2022 Author Share Posted January 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: By the way, the NAM has never liked this storm from the very beginning. Every model has been trending towards it. Facts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 9 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Forget the OP's and think how bad the ensemble mean has been over the last several days even if the best case euro is right. No model or forecast has won or lost anything yet. The storm is still 2 days away… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: By the way, the NAM has never liked this storm from the very beginning. Every model has been trending towards it. Not the Euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: Not the Euro Okay. I'm sorry, I was wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: No model or forecast has won or lost anything yet. The storm is still 2 days away… Neither he nor I said that anything was "won" - I said that the NAM has won more than twice and that it never liked this storm, which is true. I'll read more and post less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 I’m sticking with more East solution on this deal, I’ve very very very very rarely ever witnessed a path like this one takes and especially a day after shot of polar air. Lol I’ll probably eat crow, but that’s my guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 15, 2022 Author Share Posted January 15, 2022 Rgem a bit better for a lot. Not a major change for lsv though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, Wmsptwx said: I’m sticking with more East solution on this deal, I’ve very very very very rarely ever witnessed a path like this one takes and especially a day after shot of polar air. Lol I’ll probably eat crow, but that’s my guess. Only time I can recall a track that is MODELED and hasn't happened are tropical cyclones. Can't remember a winter storm with this extreme a track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 15, 2022 Author Share Posted January 15, 2022 4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: No model or forecast has won or lost anything yet. The storm is still 2 days away… Right, which is why I qualified it with the best case Op right now. As of now those ensemble means way east of us are tough to remember. If everything shifts back to that, then I my post was very wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 It’s going to happen Blizz bring it home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Let's see what tomorrow mornings model runs look like as we get a little closer to that event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 5 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: I’m sticking with more East solution on this deal, I’ve very very very very rarely ever witnessed a path like this one takes and especially a day after shot of polar air. Lol I’ll probably eat crow, but that’s my guess. This! Exactly! First time for everything, but this would be unprecedented with a low that tracks from the Gulf to the DelMarVa and then goes right through true Central PA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Rgem a bit better for a lot. Not a major change for lsv though. Haven't looked but hear that the ICON is still delivering some snow for all of us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 There’s nothing wrong with stating that a trend is occurring. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 But realism is good, isn’t it? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 But realism is good, isn’t it?Yes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Realism is good. Model hugging is bad. The Euro is the only model that has not trended towards the NAM's "I have a Nightmare" solution it seems. It's also the weather forecast guidance model of the Montreal Canadians. Yeah, we talk about 26 championships, but the last one when Jesus was still just a shitty cabinetmaker. It's time to admit it's not infallible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 15, 2022 Author Share Posted January 15, 2022 6 minutes ago, anotherman said: There’s nothing wrong with stating that a trend is occurring. There are also different interpretations going on here so it can lead to confusion. In my eyes, a low is coming up the TN valley, getting somewhere into the lower Ohio valley, then a new low forms off the Nc coast and is captured/ pulled in and stacking with the 850 west of PA. Both interpretations are all good but it leads to different views for sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 9 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Neither he nor I said that anything was "won" - I said that the NAM has won more than twice and that it never liked this storm, which is true. I'll read more and post less. It’s all good… As we have commented in the past, snow is a serious business around here and sometimes some us (myself included) get carried away with our snow emotions. It seems like we have tracking this 1 forever, but really the models didn’t latch onto this storm until Monday. We still have time to sort out the final details tomorrow & Sunday am. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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