Itstrainingtime Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: 42 on the dot at 2PM. Highest in a quite some time. 40 here. Feels really, really good outside. Not going to lie. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: 40 here. Feels really, really good outside. Not going to lie. Another lesson in Nam temps. If sunny, add 4-6 degrees. 3K had us peaking in the 35-36 area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 i don't know. 99.99999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999% of the time when they call for bad freezing rain, we don't get it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 5 minutes ago, sauss06 said: i don't know. 99.99999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999% of the time when they call for bad freezing rain, we don't get it. this time for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, paweather said: this time for sure! i believe that as much as i believe the Rooney's will fire Tomlin 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 45 minutes ago, canderson said: Might be some minor flooding issues in the LSV Thursday. That’s a lot of rain on frozen ground and a ice-packed river. I agree that this is much more likely an issue for us than anything wintry. Sadly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 9 minutes ago, sauss06 said: i don't know. 99.99999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999% of the time when they call for bad freezing rain, we don't get it. Fact check: True. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 4 minutes ago, sauss06 said: i believe that as much as i believe the Rooney's will fire Tomlin Tomlin is a lifer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 If you love the cold, just take a look at surface temps through the entire 12z (GFS) run. You'll be somewhat shocked, starting with sub-zero lows Friday night for the northwest 80% of the state. LSV is low positive single digits. Lows for Saturday night are a tad milder (lol). After the brief warmup Thursday there is only one more warmup modeled with temps in the high 30's later in the run. Whole rest is sub freezing day and night. It looks just as cold as the cold we just had for January, and right now the cold pattern continues until Valentines Day. If the ice/zr ends up being substantial, it may not melt for many days. One other person just mentioned 1994. I was going to remark yesterday that the upcoming pattern looks and feels a lot like early 1994. I'm not expecting -20 at MDT during the remainder of winter, however. For Carlisle the GFS paints almost 0.90" of freezing rain which creates 0.50" of ice accrual. If that came true this would be a severe ice storm. In 1994 in NJ in early January we had the same thing...one of most severe ice storms I've ever seen. That's what preceded the record-setting low temps that caused MDT to drop to -22F which became their all-time record low temperature which still stands to this day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 15 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: If you love the cold, just take a look at surface temps through the entire 12z (GFS) run. You'll be somewhat shocked, starting with sub-zero lows Friday night for the northwest 80% of the state. LSV is low positive single digits. Lows for Saturday night are a tad milder (lol). After the brief warmup Thursday there is only one more warmup modeled with temps in the high 30's later in the run. Whole rest is sub freezing day and night. It looks just as cold as the cold we just had for January, and right now the cold pattern continues until Valentines Day. If the ice/zr ends up being substantial, it may not melt for many days. One other person just mentioned 1994. I was going to remark yesterday that the upcoming pattern looks and feels a lot like early 1994. I'm not expecting -20 at MDT during the remainder of winter, however. For Carlisle the GFS paints almost 0.90" of freezing rain which creates 0.50" of ice accrual. If that came true this would be a severe ice storm. In 1994 in NJ in early January we had the same thing...one of most severe ice storms I've ever seen. That's what preceded the record-setting low temps that caused MDT to drop to -22F which became their all-time record low temperature which still stands to this day. Dear God, please, no.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 40 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: 40 here. Feels really, really good outside. Not going to lie. Some mid 50's out in Western PA right now. Tim wearing shorts in his Zoom's today? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 If you love the cold, just take a look at surface temps through the entire 12z (GFS) run. You'll be somewhat shocked, starting with sub-zero lows Friday night for the northwest 80% of the state. LSV is low positive single digits. Lows for Saturday night are a tad milder (lol). After the brief warmup Thursday there is only one more warmup modeled with temps in the high 30's later in the run. Whole rest is sub freezing day and night. It looks just as cold as the cold we just had for January, and right now the cold pattern continues until Valentines Day. If the ice/zr ends up being substantial, it may not melt for many days. One other person just mentioned 1994. I was going to remark yesterday that the upcoming pattern looks and feels a lot like early 1994. I'm not expecting -20 at MDT during the remainder of winter, however. For Carlisle the GFS paints almost 0.90" of freezing rain which creates 0.50" of ice accrual. If that came true this would be a severe ice storm. In 1994 in NJ in early January we had the same thing...one of most severe ice storms I've ever seen. That's what preceded the record-setting low temps that caused MDT to drop to -22F which became their all-time record low temperature which still stands to this day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 HH Nam coming out CHEERS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Detroit looks to get smoked 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, paweather said: Detroit looks to get smoked That is always a sign we are going to get hammered, right? :-). How much for 8 Mile road, yo? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: That is always a sign we are going to get hammered, right? :-). How much for 8 Mile road, yo? HAHA! yeah that is a bad sign for sure, 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: That is always a sign we are going to get hammered, right? :-). How much for 8 Mile road, yo? Normally we would be all rain in that scenario, but this is an interesting one with the cold pressing south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 Yea, I know. But a Detroit comment deserved something. I do not think it is going to snow much here. The ice is the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, anotherman said: Normally we would be all rain in that scenario, but this is an interesting one with the cold pressing south. Yep we would be need the cold to continue to press Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 30 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Some mid 50's out in Western PA right now. Tim wearing shorts in his Zoom's today? Home from the office. If not Tim, I know someone else wearing short right now... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 This is not going to be a "Happy" HH Nam. Much warmer in the LSV on Thursday/press not nearly as pronounced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: This is not going to be a "Happy" HH Nam. Much warmer in the LSV on Thursday/press not nearly as pronounced. Heading way left Angry HAPPY HOUR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 6 minutes ago, paweather said: Heading way left Angry HAPPY HOUR Near 50 down here Thursday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: Near 50 down here Thursday night. No ice at all and no snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 4 minutes ago, paweather said: No ice at all and no snow. In this solution, that's happy news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 FYI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 8 minutes ago, paweather said: No ice at all and no snow. That's not quite true regarding no ice, but Bubbler is right about a substantial reduction of the freezing rain due to a delay in the push of arctic air vs heavy precip. Here's a comparison between 12z first: Compared now to 18z... So as you can easily see, a drastic reduction in freezing rain as the heavy precip pulls through while temps stay warmer longer. Checking surface temps first 12z Friday: MDT hits 32 at 7am Friday morning with a fair amount of precip still to come. Versus 18z temps: look at 4:00am first followed by 7:00am. Temp at MDT crashes 17 degrees in 3 hours... 7:00am I won't post the snow maps because both runs give the entire lsv a big goose egg. I'm definitely anxious to see the 18z GFS to see if it begins to abandon ship or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 2 hours ago, MAG5035 said: I want to see the map with all the start times for all the different p-type transitions. I didn't see any yet from him. But your right those start times are critical! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 11 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: I won't post the snow maps because both runs give the entire lsv a big goose egg. I'm definitely anxious to see the 18z GFS to see if it begins to abandon ship or not. Exactly why I and others weren't excited yesterday. The event hasn't happened yet but these scenarios rarely ever work out down here. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 32 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Exactly why I and others weren't excited yesterday. The event hasn't happened yet but these scenarios rarely ever work out down here. Icon on TT does not show sleet or FRZ but the temp profiles look pretty bad with the low getting up to the M/D. Mid to upper 50's heading toward the Trainer Thursday night. 18Z RGEM is not winter precip at all for the LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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