Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    23Yankee
    Newest Member
    23Yankee
    Joined

Central PA - Winter 2021/2022


Bubbler86
 Share

Recommended Posts

18 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

You know...I'm really glad to hear you say this - 

I've felt for the past couple of weeks that we were about done. (LSV specifically) And, for all the reasons that you just mentioned. To me, this whole winter required almost everything to sync up perfectly for us to score a flush hit. And to play those odds would seem to be a harbinger for disappointment. I was reluctant to share how I felt as I didn't want to be "that guy" who got cursed by others...but it's just felt like it's about over for a good while.

Hey, we can get really lucky and end up with something special. Odds certainly don't favor it, but odds didn't favor the US hockey team beating Russia in the 1980 Olympics. That's why the chase lives on, but short of something unforeseen happening, the most likely outcome down this way for the rest of the winter is some scraps. And heading into March - I'll pass on the scraps. 

Y'all know that I'm not afraid of being "that guy"....^_^.  Just callin it as I see it (right or wrong), but the timing of the whole shebangy has just been off....and the result is typically a close miss at best.  My hopes from a couple weeks ago, was that the next reshuffle coming up would lock in better in the east, and w/ wavelengths shortening as spring approaches, that we'd get some chances, but IF MJO heads into 4/5/6 coupled w/ the other indicies previously mentioned, it just doesnt scream potential IMO.  Mind you, I'm no expert whatsoever, but just using my know/edge (and wee bit of skill that I may posess) from past years. 

That said, yes, we can still score as the wavelengths start to change, but on a weather map, that in my mind is nothing more than what we've been seeing most of the winter IMO, as we really need the NAO/AO to help us as we get into March but that's not looking likely as of now, so I'd think SER/WAR will likely be a more stable and unwelcomed feature IF the tellies verify as I'm seeing them.    

Lets hope for changes...and quickly.  Feel free to disagree or pick apart my thoughts.  (I'm headed to client so I'll be back on after HH).

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Lol that’s why I’m confused with this storm up here…is it just rain or a decent sleet/ice event? Euro has big ice all the way to N MD.

You are definitely not in the "just rain" area.   GFS has you ending as rain but most models have you experiencing a fairly decent winter storm either way  (as of now). 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Lol that’s why I’m confused with this storm up here…is it just rain or a decent sleet/ice event? Euro has big ice all the way to N MD.

The only thing I’m wondering about in your neck of the woods is when CTP issues the watches and what combo of impacts is going to make up that watch lol. 

The 12z Euro just gave IPT 4.3” of snow prior to changeover to ice. 

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think the models are starting to respond to the high pressure that will be in place to our north in terms of CAD. No change to my opinion I made a couple days ago that I thought this was the best setup in terms of high placement we’ve seen this winter. You can see on all models that the high moves a bit but generally stays in place in southern Quebec during the passage of this system. It doesn’t get shoved east out of the way. What would be really nice is just a little bit more resistance from that high to force the low under PA. Then I think we all could be in business for more front end WAA snow. 

As I see it currently, I think everyone sees at least advisory level ice/mix and not just a T either. The opening blast of WAA precip probably comes in as sleet or snow (dependent on intensity and timing). Then comes trying to hash out the different corridors of p-type. I-80 north stands the best chance of seeing several inches of snow/sleet and some ice but potentially having a more frozen event. The central counties below I-80 in the ridge and valley region (including the Laurels) stand the best chance of seeing warning level freezing rain and/or a stripe of more significant sleet somewhere in there. If this continues to tend colder it could shift the significant freezing rain down into the Laurel’s and southern tier ridge and valley with more frozen precip in the rest of that particular region. The Sus Valley probably sees a combo of everything (even snow) but doesn’t add up to warning criteria. It is possible though, especially H-burg north. That’s my current best take on this. 

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

This is one interesting CTP forecast for southern Perry county!

Thursday Night
Rain, snow, freezing rain, and sleet. Low around 31. Southeast wind 5 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. 
Friday
Rain, freezing rain, and sleet before 7am, then rain or freezing rain between 7am and 1pm. High near 40. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The 18z Euro & RGEM have CTP in the freezing rain bullseye Thursday night into Friday.

The message, regardless of the amounts, is that there is a good chance of significant freezing rain with this event in our region.

Hopefully we get the ground a little snow & sleet covered before the freezing rain takes over.

180C8E1F-B9BE-4030-86DD-40D95B4721FA.png

8FEF6E90-0509-45B0-8287-BA29C22009D2.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Good discussion from CTP on this event:

Main focus this period remains on southern stream shortwave and
associated surface low lifting northeast toward Pa late
Thursday into early Friday. The bulk of latest guidance tracks
the primary low into western Pa with a weak secondary coastal
low development and a blocking high over northern New England.
This scenario favors a wintry mix for much of central Pa late
Thursday into through Friday morning.

Plenty of GOMEX moisture/above normal PWs accompanying this
system should result in a fairly significant precipitation
event, with latest ensemble plumes indicating 0.5 to 1.25 inches
of [liquid equivalent] precip most likely. Latest model thermal
profiles currently support snow to mixed precip over the north
and mixed precip to rain in the south. We were keen to utilize
NBM unconditional PoWT to derive wx types and used a blend of
NBM/WPC/NBM v4.1/EXP for snow and ice accumulations. The
heaviest/significant snow accums 4+ inches are most likely north
of I-80 across the northern tier of CPA. A broad wintry mix
zone of snow, sleet, and freezing rain is probable mainly from
US-6 south to the PA Turnpike, with a icy mix to rain transition
fcst from the PA Turnpike south to the MD line. The exception
will be across the Laurel Highlands, with a high probability of
>0.25" of ice accumulation based on the aforementioned multi
model blend and supported by the WPC WWO. We will wait another
cycle before considering headlines; but this event looks like a
solid advisory for most of CPA pushing warning criteria for ice
in the Laurels and for snow across the northern tier. Hazardous
travel conditions are very likely later Thursday into Friday
(HWO).

 

 

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

30 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The 3k NAM came in colder and really delivers the heavy sleet even to the LSV.

 

It's definitely trying to suck me back in....

HP doin its thingy up in da land of da Quebecians

Just not sure how much further south we can get thermals for us Southern folks.  I'd take a sleetfest as a big win down here.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...