LakeEffectKing Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 On the New England forum, I just read the euro ensemble mean for 6z has lp over NYC 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: On the New England forum, I just read the euro ensemble mean for 6z has lp over NYC Just to the west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Just to the west Perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, 96blizz said: Perfect. Yep Nice spot you are in for this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Yeah 0z EPS was like Lancaster to Albany, and 6z is PHL to Hartford vicinity. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: Yeah 0z EPS was like Lancaster to Albany, and 6z is PHL to Hartford vicinity. K just lock that in now! We all know that won’t happen… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Good look for almost all of upstate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 The looks of those are rochester to syracuse jackpot zone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 SYR west we'd like to see a a bit more inland and northerly track for both synoptic and LE on the back end. The phasing will be key to the tilt. When will that northern energy be on land for sampling? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Today I believe all the players will be sampled fully Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Looking at the 6z Euro, the 2 pieces (blue circles) that dive in and phase in the southern plains to form the storm are on or near the coastline today and fully onshore by 0z tonight. The northern stream (blue x) that comes into the Great Lakes near game time is still well out into the Pacific and does not come onshore until about 21z Saturday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 17 minutes ago, tim123 said: Today I believe all the players will be sampled fully From BUF: The upper level system that will force this system was still over the Pacific Ocean for the 00Z guidance suite, but will move onshore today in the Pacific Northwest and will be better sampled by the radiosonde network and aircraft soundings from this point forward, which should continue to promote converging model solutions and increasing forecast confidence over the next day or two. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 So it looks like the south shore is still in the game for up to 4-6" fluff over the weekend according the the RGEM. That would be a great pre-game warm up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Here is the full disco WIDESPREAD Heavy Snowfall Possible Sunday Night and Monday... High pressure will move off the New England coast Sunday, with a ridge extending back into the eastern Great Lakes. This will bring a dry day, with temperatures trending milder after a cold start. Our attention then turns to a potential significant synoptic system. The 00Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF are in very good agreement overall with the longwave pattern evolution and synoptic scale details. Despite the agreement in deterministic models, ensembles still show some typical spread. The 00Z GEM ensemble mean is much closer to the deterministic runs, while the 00Z GEFS is still farther east and weaker. The deterministic runs continue to show a low track that is farther west than climatology. East coast systems typically track along the coast and close to the coastal front, but in THIS case the strong synoptic scale dynamics may overcome that trend and force the low track farther west and well inland across the Mid Atlantic and PA. One big reason for this can be blamed on a large sfc high that will precede the storm...with the high moving off the New England coast and blocking a more typical storm track up the coast. Nor`easters usually run up the coast ahead of the Canadian high...but the timing is such that the sfc high will force the storm system inland and up the coastal plain. Storms of this nature have a history of generating widespread snow throughout all of western and north central New York. Similar sfc patterns occurred with the following storms: 2/13/93, 12/29/97, 1/12/96, 2/23/98, 12/11/92 and 2/12/85. The upper level system that will force this system was still over the Pacific Ocean for the 00Z guidance suite, but will move onshore today in the Pacific Northwest and will be better sampled by the radiosonde network and aircraft soundings from this point forward, which should continue to promote converging model solutions and increasing forecast confidence over the next day or two. Increased the POPS to likely for later Sunday night through Monday given the agreement in deterministic runs. If the deterministic and ensemble models continue to support this solution, there may be a widespread, impactful snow event late Sunday night through Monday. Following this system, expect some wrap around snow showers and at least some limited lake effect east/southeast of the lakes Monday night into Tuesday. A clipper system will then cross the Great Lakes Tuesday night and Wednesday with a chance of more snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 8 hours ago, DeltaT13 said: What does this mean? Ok, I was a bit heavy there on the hyperbole. Should have said I'm skeptical of models showing WNY in the bullseye. BUF has a great write-up this morning. Have to check those dates to see how the snow was distributed across upstate. The deterministic runs continue to show a low track that is farther west than climatology. East coast systems typically track along the coast and close to the coastal front, but in THIS case the strong synoptic scale dynamics may overcome that trend and force the low track farther west and well inland across the Mid Atlantic and PA. One big reason for this can be blamed on a large sfc high that will precede the storm...with the high moving off the New England coast and blocking a more typical storm track up the coast. Nor`easters usually run up the coast ahead of the Canadian high...but the timing is such that the sfc high will force the storm system inland and up the coastal plain. Storms of this nature have a history of generating widespread snow throughout all of western and north central New York. Similar sfc patterns occurred with the following storms: 2/13/93, 12/29/97, 1/12/96, 2/23/98, 12/11/92 and 2/12/85. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 GEFS is the outlier. Also the elephant in the room. Hope to see their OTS solution collapse at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 hour ago, BGM Blizzard said: 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 21 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Now to get the GFS to do this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 LR NAM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Breaking out the japanese as we wait haha 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Breaking out the japanese as we wait haha Looks reasonable actually. People probably gonna sweat the NAM being so far south but with the HP, it has no where to go but straight north 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 hour ago, Buffalo Bumble said: From BUF: The upper level system that will force this system was still over the Pacific Ocean for the 00Z guidance suite, but will move onshore today in the Pacific Northwest and will be better sampled by the radiosonde network and aircraft soundings from this point forward, which should continue to promote converging model solutions and increasing forecast confidence over the next day or two. If we are going to get significant op model shifts as systems over the PAC move onshore and become better sampled, I look for that to occur in the next 2/3 major model cycles (0/12z). So by Sat 0Z we should have good confidence in solution. 06Z GEFS still looks bizarre with about 1/3rd of its members out near Bermuda. It's mean may end up being correct but perhaps for the wrong reasons. Or those outlier ens members end up being savants... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Another thing while we wait for 12Z...regarding Miller A vs B. March 1993 is regarded as a classic Miller A but even it had "center jumps" in the SE US (at least on modeling) as I recall. That doesn't make it a Miller B or even much of a hybrid. Some NWP runs with this system seem to be hinting at same occurring but I suspect it's more an artifact of the model trying to locate the slp over time. It wouldn't be unreasonable to see that happen though IRL as the system makes the turn in the SE US. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I think Watches will be issued only 2 days from now on Saturday. We're getting there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 25 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: LR NAM NAM crushing the usual snowbelts of Alabama and Tennessee. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Another thing while we wait for 12Z...regarding Miller A vs B. March 1993 is regarded as a classic Miller A but even it had "center jumps" in the SE US (at least on modeling) as I recall. That doesn't make it a Miller B or even much of a hybrid. Some NWP runs with this system seem to be hinting at same occurring but I suspect it's more an artifact of the model trying to locate the slp over time. It wouldn't be unreasonable to see that happen though IRL as the system makes the turn in the SE US. Yeah this is a classic Miller A in my book 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 @MJO812's been posting this. Icon definitely east. Sorry BGM Blizz, but after last December, Binghamton is the LAST place in NY that I want to get the jackpot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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