Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,110
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Elarey7
    Newest Member
    Elarey7
    Joined

Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?


Recommended Posts

Models are jumping all over the place with the placement of the low. Until there’s some consistency from run to run within a model and between models we don’t know the ultimate outcome in sensible weather. This morning’s GFS run will be interesting. Is there another NW jog in the cards?

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Models have actually been pretty consistent since yesterday. Showing a middling LP near the big city bench mark. It’s our ‘expectations’ that have been jumping all over the place. 
It’s going to take a BIG change for this one to be anything. But hey, it’s not on shore yet. It will change. Probably flatter. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, wolfie09 said:

Rgem is a complete whiff..To make matters worse it's restricting the lake band lol It does have some lake snows E/SE of Ontario..

 

12Z GooFuS looks similar...keeps synoptic snowstorm down in the Mid Atl / SNE snowbelts. ;)

 

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Instead of watching model runs and overanalyzing them, I guess it's back to overanalyzing radars to see if a five mile wide band of lake effect snow can move through for a couple hours.

I can't believe I have to watch Seattle, Huntsville, and DC news stations to see some real snow falling.

  • Haha 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Instead of watching model runs and overanalyzing them, I guess it's back to overanalyzing radars to see if a five mile wide band of lake effect snow can move through for a couple hours.

I can't believe I have to watch Seattle, Huntsville, and DC news stations to see some real snow falling.

KBUF and KTYX radars and webcams are still available for your viewing pleasure!  I know, its fake snow (and it falls apart like the NY Giants when it moves near our location), but short Sunday Driver road trips to see heavy snowfall are pretty easy from here.  Only an hour or so up to KART.  We are truly #blessed.  

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

What in God's name is happening around here? I mean, this is the absolute worst, and I haven't seen it this bad since I moved up here! It just keeps getting worse and worse, lol, WOW! There's a split flow storm track, or so it seems with every storm system this yr so far, and just when we thought some decent cold air was incoming, we instead continue the roller-coaster.

The track to the North brings just enough warm air that we see a change over, or just plain rain from the get go, then after the CF passes, we cool off and we also dry out so that whatever cold air is left over, is completely dry and stale, disgusting!

We need a blockbuster to reset the whole pattern cause this shite is getting OLD and fast!

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

  • Like 5
  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

What in God's name is happening around here? I mean, this is the absolute worst, and I haven't seen it this bad since I moved up here! It just keeps getting worse and worse, lol, WOW! There's a split flow storm track, or so it seems with every storm system this yr so far, and just when we thought some decent cold air was incoming, we instead continue the roller-coaster.

The track to the North brings just enough warm air that we see a change over, or just plain rain from the get go, then after the CF passes, we cool off and we also dry out so that whatever cold air is left over, is completely dry and stale, disgusting!

We need a blockbuster to reset the whole pattern cause this shite is getting OLD and fast!

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
 

image.gif.490c1355fb5eee5aecfe221214fa0d9b.gif

  • Haha 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Time to stick a fork in it unless the Euro shows some miraculous improvement. Flat flat flat.

After this morning’s runs I’m resigned to this storm being toast for us.  It’s on to the rain this weekend. 

  • Like 1
  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

12Z Euro out near the Benchmark with a 991 mb slp.  Pretty much flushes any synoptic system for upstate.  After that...passing fronts and weak systems with R/S chances and probably seasonable temps.  Not inspiring.  Time to start looking at spring planting ideas...

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

For the south shore it looks like we’ll be fighting over scraps. I will say I’ve seen worst set-ups for lake effect on the back side of the ‘storm’. Fluffy few inches aren’t out of the possibility. Of course we’ll be fighting with dry air. 
But Freak summed it up nicely. Screw this winter. Dog turd central

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Whoop, there it is...

 Snow amounts now around an inch in CNY to 2 to 3
inches Scranton to Monticello and points south. Surface
Temperatures mostly in the 20s so event will be all snow.

Low pressures consolidate and intensify off the mid Atlantic
coast then head quickly northeast well off the New England
coast. The better forcing and moisture remains to our southeast.
The 12z models agree on this scenario. As this storm exits much
colder air comes in from the northeast Friday. At this time
moisture from the storm does not look to wrap around to aid the
lake effect snow showers. A few inches of snow is possible
Friday from the eastern Finger Lakes into the upper Susquehanna
Region. A cool breezy mostly cloudy day with highs in the 20s.
  • Haha 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

32 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Whoop, there it is...

 Snow amounts now around an inch in CNY to 2 to 3
inches Scranton to Monticello and points south. Surface
Temperatures mostly in the 20s so event will be all snow.

Low pressures consolidate and intensify off the mid Atlantic
coast then head quickly northeast well off the New England
coast. The better forcing and moisture remains to our southeast.
The 12z models agree on this scenario. As this storm exits much
colder air comes in from the northeast Friday. At this time
moisture from the storm does not look to wrap around to aid the
lake effect snow showers. A few inches of snow is possible
Friday from the eastern Finger Lakes into the upper Susquehanna
Region. A cool breezy mostly cloudy day with highs in the 20s.

It gets more disappointing with each run. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...