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Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?


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52 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

We are entering a potentially epic pattern. PV looks to potentially break off. I’m seeing strong signals for a big Miller A. It might cut but really, the GFS was spitting out unbelievable numbers until the 6z run. 
you’ve been like this for most of the winter. I know you’ve had a tough run. 

Yeah someone from Michigan to Northeast is going to get 1-2 big snowstorms in this pattern. The 2nd one looks massive. 

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1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said:

This one...is the one that we in CNY (and eastern NY) are SO sick of seeing this year:

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_21.png

Those pics are worthless. Just goes to show you how many various threats there are. Best look of the year for synoptic in Upstate. Its like 4 waves of low pressures on GFS with plenty of cold air nearby. 

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Just now, TugHillMatt said:

This one...is the one that we in CNY (and eastern NY) are SO sick of seeing this year:

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_21.png

That has been the predominant storm track to be sure. About 15 miles south of me is Bristol Mountain ski area and just that little distance has been huge. They’ve had very little snow due to this track. While Rochester and points NW have done pretty well. 

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4 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

That has been the predominant storm track to be sure. About 15 miles south of me is Bristol Mountain ski area and just that little distance has been huge. They’ve had very little snow due to this track. While Rochester and points NW have done pretty well. 

Excited to see how much snow is on high peaks tomorrow. Hiking Marshall. Got our lift passes for Saturday for Whiteface. 

https://www.alltrails.com/trail/us/new-york/mount-marshall-via-the-calamity-brook-trail

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I feel the days of building a deep snowpack are over for this season. We’re going to have to be satisfied with what we get on the backside of these storms. Maybe if we’re lucky we’ll get one to track just south of us and give us predominantly snow. Either way the increasing insolation from the March sun will melt whatever falls within a day or two. The 3.1 inches I got last night is already start to melt in the sun. 

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1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Those pics are worthless. Just goes to show you how many various threats there are. Best look of the year for synoptic in Upstate. Its like 4 waves of low pressures on GFS with plenty of cold air nearby. 

I disagree. It is not worthless when it is showing a similar setup to many we've already had. It can help to give an indication of where the front may set up again. Unfortunately, that is not where we want it. Hopefully we'll see things shift a bit more south by next week.

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17 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

I disagree. It is not worthless when it is showing a similar setup to many we've already had. It can help to give an indication of where the front may set up again. Unfortunately, that is not where we want it. Hopefully we'll see things shift a bit more south by next week.

Patterns a month ago mean little to nothing now. Past results don't foretell future outcomes. 

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2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Excited to see how much snow is on high peaks tomorrow. Hiking Marshall. Got our lift passes for Saturday for Whiteface. 

https://www.alltrails.com/trail/us/new-york/mount-marshall-via-the-calamity-brook-trail

Wow. Looks like a challenging trail based on the reviews. I’m sure it’ll be a breeze for you. Take lots of pictures. I assume you’ll bring the dog?

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2 hours ago, CNY_WX said:

I feel the days of building a deep snowpack are over for this season. We’re going to have to be satisfied with what we get on the backside of these storms. Maybe if we’re lucky we’ll get one to track just south of us and give us predominantly snow. Either way the increasing insolation from the March sun will melt whatever falls within a day or two. The 3.1 inches I got last night is already start to melt in the sun. 

You can tell this isn't just lake effect fluff though, as the snowcover on some of the roads and parking lots still hasn't melted. If it was all lake effect, it would have been gone by 10 am.

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7 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Wow. Looks like a challenging trail based on the reviews. I’m sure it’ll be a breeze for you. Take lots of pictures. I assume you’ll bring the dog?

No dog this time, going with some buds. Leaving tonight at 11 and driving through night and starting hike tomorrow morning. :lol:

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4 hours ago, rochesterdave said:

We are entering a potentially epic pattern. PV looks to potentially break off. I’m seeing strong signals for a big Miller A. It might cut but really, the GFS was spitting out unbelievable numbers until the 6z run. 
you’ve been like this for most of the winter. I know you’ve had a tough run. 

Wondering if this March might rival those of 1956, 1960, and 1984? It's looking quite cold between the 10th and 20th.

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