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January 2022 Obs/Disco


NorEastermass128
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4 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Sure, I think it's a long shot, but at least we have a pretty good sense of what would need to change and the fact that we are even discussing that those level of changes are even possible should be an indication that it could also just as easily (as that) trend faster and more progressive while the next on comes in delayed, and then there you go, the possibility of at least a decent event. Just seems like we shouldn't get ahead of ourselves, that's all.

Yea, in the end, I would be surprised if we make it to 1/20 with nothing to show for it....its tough for everything to get shunted.

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You would have to think that the Monday deal not being allowed to gain much latitude would limit how much it could interfere with your follow up deal.

Wait wait, I still think we are getting things mixed up...Monday is the 17th, that's the 168 hour prog I posted. That's the third wave, correct? Do you mean the "Sunday" deal? Part of the problem, like I just posted, is that the OP timing is just one of many possible timings being shown on the ensembles. The EPS is definitely centering around Monday, while the OP GFS shows Sunday and Tuesday.

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6 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Wait wait, I still think we are getting things mixed up...Monday is the 17th, that's the 168 hour prog I posted. That's the third wave, correct? Do you mean the "Sunday" deal? Part of the problem, like I just posted, is that the OP timing is just one of many possible timings being shown on the ensembles. The EPS is definitely centering around Monday, while the OP GFS shows Sunday and Tuesday.

Yea, my bad.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, my bad.

No worries, I'm just really starting to look at post Friday OP runs seriously so I am probably missing a level of understanding of the model evolution that others have. Like to me, it's "what weekend deal?" because the ensembles have been a dartboard at local bar.

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GEFs have, in essence, the same favorable look...

Again, I've been hitting the 270-300 hr range therefrom ..etc.   It's just not clear if a real event is in there, or that's just the larger scaffolding of the pattern passing through it's maximization. 

I've been looking at the ens PP means of the GEFs, they've also been off and on closing contours basically 240 - 330 for that matter.  

The numerical telecon of the PNA isn't hugely convincing but it is modestly positive.  It would be better served ( confidence) if that would camel hump to go along with these graphics.   That's been an interesting story that no one probably is even aware of unless they have a life like mine which is that the numerical equivalence of the graphics have not been aligning very well.  The numerics/curves of the PNA should like more formidable given the graphics.  I guess the only purpose for telling this is that less amazing events fit the numerical/EOF results; the graphics sell more.

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The numerical telecon of the PNA isn't hugely convincing but it is modestly positive.  It would be better served ( confidence) if that would camel hump to go along with these graphics.   That's been an interesting story that no one probably is even aware of unless they have a life like mine which is that the numerical equivalence of the graphics have not been aligning very well.  The numerics/curves of the PNA should like more formidable given the graphics.  

Actually, I noticed that yesterday, probably prompted by one of your posts. None of the teleconnections looked classically impressive, but I guess together they make the right soup?

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I was torn between 2015 and 2005 for an analog...would have to look at both.

There's some similarities 2005 and 2015 share....2015 was a little more amplified and also lasted longer. 2015 was basically that standing western ridge for 3-4 weeks....it did briefly break down and reload in the Feb 6-10 range but we got lucky while the rest of the CONUS torched and we had that weird overrunning event that lasted 3 days and culminated in a coastal redevelopment on the morning of Feb 9th. That's how you break records though....get lucky when everyone else is waiting for the reload.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

There's some similarities 2005 and 2015 share....2015 was a little more amplified and also lasted longer. 2015 was basically that standing western ridge for 3-4 weeks....it did briefly break down and reload in the Feb 6-10 range but we got lucky while the rest of the CONUS torched and we had that weird overrunning event that lasted 3 days and culminated in a coastal redevelopment on the morning of Feb 9th. That's how you break records though....get lucky when everyone else is waiting for the reload.

That was the scooter special, right?

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Will, when is that arctic SW that messes with the PNA ridge for Friday better sampled? Seems a pretty short lead to Friday.

The shortwave directly responsible for Friday comes onshore tomorrow night....I'm not sure if there is another piece you are asking about that is affecting the ridge?

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