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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2022


buckeyefan1
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21 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

12z GFS shows a decent hit for Virginia this weekend. Not far off from being something bigger. Something to watch. 

Mega concerns with the cold push east of the mountains with that upper level low over the Great Lakes being the fly in the ointment but good lord that model sucks. Watch it’s last 4 runs 

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9 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I wish it was closer to go time but the Euro is a great storm with plenty of qpf. Verbatim it drops 1.5-2” of qpf across the northern half of NC and central VA. Definitely potential out there for the 28th

 

14 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

EURO is a good run but it’s cold chasing precip. Verbatim central NC, Triad, and most Virginia folks would be happy 

I wouldn't call it cold chasing moisture necessarily (and all the issues that come along with that). It's just that the storm is too far north. A really good run though, with the way things had been trending. 

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2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

 

I wouldn't call it cold chasing moisture necessarily (and all the issues that come along with that). It's just that the storm is too far north. A really good run though, with the way things had been trending. 

Definitely nice having Dr. No in your court. Last 3 systems the Euro has said “Nope” and turned out correct. Key takeaway for me is there is consensus now across most modeling (Ukie, GFS and ensembles, CMC, Euro, ICON lol) that there will be a storm around that timeframe and there is some cold air to work with. Way too far for specifics but this is about as good agreement at this range as you’re gonna get 

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9 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Definitely nice having Dr. No in your court. Last 3 systems the Euro has said “Nope” and turned out correct. Key takeaway for me is there is consensus now across most modeling (Ukie, GFS and ensembles, CMC, Euro, ICON lol) that there will be a storm around that timeframe and there is some cold air to work with. Way too far for specifics but this is about as good agreement at this range as you’re gonna get 

Agreed!

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