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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2022


buckeyefan1
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1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said:

The ground temps won't get that warm with as cold as we've been. It would take more than 1 day in the 60s.... ground temps will not be an issue. That's overrated in my opinion anyway

I agree, it's not so much ground temps I'm concerned about as getting the front to move through quick enough before the moisture arrives. Gotta watch trends here, if we can move it south and stronger, we're in business

gfs_temp_adv_fgen_850_eus_fh108_trend.gif

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Imo the EURO was a significant step towards something more significant. GFS obviously had two good (as good as this systems looked) runs. If we can get the EURO more onboard by tonight then this will feel like more of a threat.

I HATE people (WRAL) bringing up temps the day before as an issue for almost every storm. So many good snows here followed a day or two of warmth. Literally the last thing I’d bring up at this range. Get the snow forecast first worry about it’s ability to accumulate on roads the day before 

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1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said:

Temperatures are iffy with this.    Would be a rain/snow mix as it stands now....

Based on current models, accumulation would be tough.  Several warm and SUNNY days ahead of this will limit initial accumulations and especially on roads (good thing)

The only thing saving us on that is it being at night again.

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6 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

Temperatures are iffy with this.    Would be a rain/snow mix as it stands now....

Based on current models, accumulation would be tough.  Several warm and SUNNY days ahead of this will limit initial accumulations and especially on roads (good thing)

If the rates are good enough it doesn't matter. 

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16 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

If the rates are good enough it doesn't matter. 

If the rates are good enough, it will accumulate, but turn into a slushy mess and be gone as soon as rates let up...
If rates aren't good enough, it is a rain/snow mix.     I'd love to see cold air trend a little better.

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12 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

12z NAM looks good... I think? Someone with more expertise can chime in on the end of the run.

I think not nearly as good as the GFS, but a little better than the Euro. I think a big key feature is the blocking high to the north. The GFS is pretty well positioned and strong, while the NAM/Euro/Icon are weaker and too far West

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