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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2022


buckeyefan1
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The CMC/EURO/GFS ensemble means all have a stout west coast ridge with below normal heights in the east through the extended range. It really looks like February is going to be a great month for winter storm threats. 

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2 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said:

GFS has been the first to pick up hits, it is not to be taken lightly this winter...

Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk
 

Definitely been a good sniffer at range.

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21 minutes ago, burgertime said:

Euro is more believable. Big rain storm in front of the massive arctic air dump then suppresses everything. That is a seriously cold air mass going over Canada and the Midwest. Wowzers. 

Not buying the cold air dump pushing that far south coast to coast... hopefully the euro moderates some on the cold air push and we can get a wave along the stalled boundary.  GFS seems like a nice compromise between CMC/Euro, that's my story and i'm sticking to it until the GFS loses the mega storm anyways. lol

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27 minutes ago, burgertime said:

Euro is more believable. Big rain storm in front of the massive arctic air dump then suppresses everything. That is a seriously cold air mass going over Canada and the Midwest. Wowzers. 

The 12z is completely different from the 0z run. The GFS has been consistent for several runs showing the threat. 

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8 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

I think our old nemesis the southeast ridge can help us out in this situation by fighting against suppression, not letting the Arctic boundary drop too far south of us, and enhancing the thermal gradient some.

Yea,I mentioned a couple days ago that it seems like the long range favors CAD/ICE and we're really seeing that on the GFS now with 3 separate CAD induced snow/ice threats in the long range.  All the models have the SER flexing at least a little bit along with the great blocking and ridging out west, lends you to think we're in for some ice storms.

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