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December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas


40/70 Benchmark
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1 minute ago, NorEastermass128 said:

That restaurant near him can likely put that potted palm tree back out onto the sidewalk on Monday. 

The weird part is as Scott said...it wasn't a warm November there. I assume BDR is the closest site to him and they were actually a -1.7 departure for the month. But being close to the shore definitely makes for a much longer growing season.

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19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

GFS OP is an error with the very warm look of late....its totally at odds with tropical forcing, for which we have a very good consensus. The fairly mild interlude that we will have mid month belies the true overall tenor of this month.

MJO phase 6-7 for December is usually a decent look and it usually supports ridging in AK and not troughing. We'll see if that ridging trying to show up near EPO region mid-month becomes stronger as we get closer. Forecasts are for us to go from phase 6 to phase 7.

Maybe scooter has some thoughts on the convection, but the two baseline December maps aren't bad....phase 7 does support some SE ridging but it's kind of weak.

 

 

DecemberPhase6all500mb.gif

DecemberPhase7all500mb.gif

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

MJO phase 6-7 for December is usually a decent look and it usually supports ridging in AK and not troughing. We'll see if that ridging trying to show up near EPO region mid-month becomes stronger as we get closer. Forecasts are for us to go from phase 6 to phase 7.

Maybe scooter has some thoughts on the convection, but the two baseline December maps aren't bad....phase 7 does support some SE ridging but it's kind of weak.

 

 

DecemberPhase6all500mb.gif

DecemberPhase7all500mb.gif

I have this for phase 7/Dec/Nina

nina_7_dic_ok.png

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2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I'm bracing for a shit stretch for awhile. Maybe next week works out...but I'd rather be where you are or especially Brian and points north. I guess the only thing I can see working out is later in the 11-15 day as we get more of a -EPO. Maybe that helps bleed in more low level cold, but otherwise that is a ridge on roids across the SE. 

I tried to tell wolfie that last night but once he growled and locked his jaws…I couldn’t get him to let go. 

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No one denied a mild period mid month...it was you punting the month that was the source of dissent.

I told him no snow for him and I for 3wks and he went wild. While the possible changes around dec20 would be nice, I doubt it happens so quickly that the xmas is snowy. I’m not punting the month but the punter is off the bench kicking into the net. 

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Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I told him no snow for him and I for 3wks and he went wild. While the possible changes around dec20 would be nice, I doubt it happens so quickly that the xmas is snowy. I’m not punting the month but the punter is off the bench kicking into the net. 

HAHA Got ya. I think we are good before xmas.

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15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The weird part is as Scott said...it wasn't a warm November there. I assume BDR is the closest site to him and they were actually a -1.7 departure for the month. But being close to the shore definitely makes for a much longer growing season.

So much for Mowvember

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55 minutes ago, George001 said:

I’m ready to panic about the long term winter outlook. I’m bailing on my winter forecast, based on the long term outlook with the polar vortex continuing to deepen into January I don’t see how we get over 70 inches of snow this winter, which is what I forecasted. 

You should have kept your forecasts the way it is. Things can drastically change by January. But being so erratic you're not going to have the respect from people on the Forum. Just sayin in a friendly kind of way.

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59 minutes ago, George001 said:

I’m ready to panic about the long term winter outlook. I’m bailing on my winter forecast, based on the long term outlook with the polar vortex continuing to deepen into January I don’t see how we get over 70 inches of snow this winter, which is what I forecasted. 

Best way for you to forecast in the future is to take your gut feelings and go 180 degrees opposite. You may indeed wind up as one of the most accurate on the board..

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4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Despite the thread the needle event possibly for next week , the pattern doesn't look good for the foreseeable future.  Teleconnections are awful 

You can prob fold up the tent in NYC for a while....unless something lucky happens. It's going to be a gradient pattern....further north the better. Even SNE may struggle in this, but we'll see as we get closer to mid-month.

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