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December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas


40/70 Benchmark
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18 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

One thing that is pretty noteworthy moving forward is how much the models pretty much turnover the Arctic and the stratosphere. Models really destroy the SPV over the next few weeks and multiple weak PV lobes just get sprayed everywhere. Also very interesting to see how the pattern actually looks to become more favorable as the NAO/PNA signals sort of weaken a bit.

I think the biggest change though is models eliminate ridging across the Atlantic...I think that's been killing us b/c even with -NAO there have been weaknesses in the height field over eastern Canada and this ATL ridging feeds into the ridging over the Arctic domain and enhances the ridging and expands West. 

Take that to the bank.

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Can see that progression eastward slowly on EPS. I know Ray mentioned this, but we also need to shake the moisture starved systems too. Once we get to tap into some gulf moisture, that will  help. We probably will be riding the line on some of these systems, but I'll take my chances with some juiced systems too. 

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Take that to the bank.

I would have to think there is strong merit to that right? I mean isn't one way to attack the PV is to keep pelting it with strong s/w after strong s/w?

At least with the Pattern configuration across the Pacific we're driving potent shortwaves into the Arctic and attaching the PV. 

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Can see that progression eastward slowly on EPS. I know Ray mentioned this, but we also need to shake the moisture starved systems too. Once we get to tap into some gulf moisture, that will  help. We probably will be riding the line on some of these systems, but I'll take my chances with some juiced systems too. 

and there is an abundance of this available 

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2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I would have to think there is strong merit to that right? I mean isn't one way to attack the PV is to keep pelting it with strong s/w after strong s/w?

At least with the Pattern configuration across the Pacific we're driving potent shortwaves into the Arctic and attaching the PV. 

I am very confident that the PV is going down this year.

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1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Getting inside 48hrs but this just really jumped west the last couple cycles to, But its been on the models for several days offshore.

i mean, we are in territory where the nam can lead in some situations.  The fact that the gfs followed is a strong sign of at least something decent over by you.  The Euro will show something at 18z probably.

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7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I am very confident that the PV is going down this year.

Euro is basically splitting the 50mb PV....will be interesting to see if it actually splits or just stays really elongated....it doesn't really matter in the medium range....being stretched like that is going to be exceptionally favorable for blocking....but longer term it will matter on the longevity....if it splits apart, it will take longer to re-consolidate.

 

getimage&set=21&region=0&cycle=2021122012&hour=240&subregion=&parameter=4

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Euro is basically splitting the 50mb PV....will be interesting to see if it actually splits or just stays really elongated....it doesn't really matter in the medium range....being stretched like that is going to be exceptionally favorable for blocking....but longer term it will matter on the longevity....if it splits apart, it will take longer to re-consolidate.

 

getimage&set=21&region=0&cycle=2021122012&hour=240&subregion=&parameter=4

I feel like it will ultimately splinter apart. That is the one thing I was really confident about when I researched for this season.

 

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3 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

i mean, we are in territory where the nam can lead in some situations.  The fact that the gfs followed is a strong sign of at least something decent over by you.  The Euro will show something at 18z probably.

Nam was pretty far west at 12z too, Euro has ticked slowly west as well but it won't make big jumps but i can see it continuing, I think 18z Nam is probably going to continue the theme just looking at it early on right now in its 18z run.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I feel like it will ultimately splinter apart. That is the one thing I was really confident about when I researched for this season.

 

If it does, that would likely bode well for late January and into February. I'm always a fan of bucking February La Nina climo.

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Just now, dryslot said:

Nam was pretty far west at 12z too, Euro has ticked slowly west as well but it won't make big jumps but i can see it continuing, I think 18z Nam is probably going to continue the theme just looking at it early on right now in its 18z run.

Give it a few more runs and it will develop an eye and move over my fanny.

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4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Nam was pretty far west at 12z too, Euro has ticked slowly west as well but it won't make big jumps but i can see it continuing, I think 18z Nam is probably going to continue the theme just looking at it early on right now in its 18z run.

Euro does miss in the medium range, but it capitulates so deliberately that you're passed out by the time you can realize it was wrong. I think that MO is built into them model's algorithm. 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

If it does, that would likely bode well for late January and into February. I'm always a fan of bucking February La Nina climo.

I was thinking a month after the split as a lag....so I think I technically had it splitting in latter January, so late Feb/early March. But my timing could def be off....I'd be happy just to get the idea right.

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Euro does miss in the medium range, but it capitulates to deliberately that you're passed out by the time you can realize it was wrong. I think that MO is built into them mode's algorithm. 

I wonder if it literally generates a solution and then hedges 50% towards the previous run. probably not but it is weird how it never jumps around

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Just now, dryslot said:

When there is no snow on the ground in SNE and its almost Christmas, I don't think one will find much humor ha ha.

C'mon seriously people. Humor is all we have right now. I'm wanting snow as much as anyone else in here, trust me. I am one of the biggest Weenies here. Proud of it! 

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