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Upstate/Eastern New York-Into Winter!


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1 hour ago, Ericjcrash said:

Canadian came through with the goods for next week. Will it verify? No. 

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_26.png

Gfs is there but phases a bit slower than the Canuck…awaiting the Euro…which just showed an in between version of the GFS and the Canuck…it would be all snow but a 2-4” type event more as you go south towards PA line. 5-6 days out but all looks in unison…for now

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10 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

 

Were we expecting a line of convection to form this afternoon?  Was just looking out a window facing west and sky towards the lake is pitch black right now.  

WUNIDS_map.gif

Just passed right over me in Williamsville…actually got caught in it on way home from work…heavy rain mixed with hail…not graupel as it’s 50 out… crazy

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13 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

 

Were we expecting a line of convection to form this afternoon?  Was just looking out a window facing west and sky towards the lake is pitch black right now.  

WUNIDS_map.gif

It's a sharp cold front plowing through 50 degree air.  Seems plausible. 

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A deepening area of low pressure is progged to cut the Great Lakes
from the Mid-West and track northwest of western and north central
NY Sunday-Monday. Signals in the ensembles from the GEFS, NAEFS, and
ECMWF ENS are surfacing that show a potential wind event across the
region sometime during Sunday night-Monday night. Many parameters
such as sharp pressure rises and cold air advection behind a strong
cold front associated with a deepening surface low pressure match
local climatology for high wind events across western and north
central NY. Widespread rain will likely move across the region ahead
of the cold front Sunday-Monday. Stay tuned for further updates and
details on intensity and timing. Temperatures will likely start off
in the upper 30s to low 40s Monday morning and fall through the day
into Monday night.

Lake effect snow showers will likely begin behind the cold front
Monday-Tuesday resulting in accumulating snow for some locations east
of the Lakes.
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3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

High winds don't really work with lake effect, but would really impact the Bills game. @DeltaT13 would be on cloud 9 with snow and high winds. :lol:

Heck yeah, that’s why I couldn’t miss this game even though it’s looking like it’ll just be high winds by game time. I mean I’m super pumped just to see a meaningful and exciting Monday night game in Buffalo. Exciting weather is just the icing on the cake. 

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2 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

Heck yeah, that’s why I couldn’t miss this game even though it’s looking like it’ll just be high winds by game time. I mean I’m super pumped just to see a meaningful and exciting Monday night game in Buffalo. Exciting weather is just the icing on the cake. 

Watch there be a game delay for wind.

They did just game delay a dome for lightning earlier in the season...

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39 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said:

Watch there be a game delay for wind.

They did just game delay a dome for lightning earlier in the season...

Bills Patriots played a super windy game back in 2008.  Had to have the grounds crew hold the goal posts straight for FG attempts.  

11B99130-1022-4EF0-911C-3E05ED7EAA17.jpeg

F991AAB4-716B-4DBA-BF10-73D0C823F1A1.jpeg

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Honest question…did someone give the GFS anti winter software??? The system for next Wednesday is now completely gone and east of us…seriously, WTF! IIRC the GFS used to spit out cold as if it was on an arctic high all winter only to get squashed by the more reliable Euro…today it appears the Euro is the colder solution and the GFS is the wet blanket…

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50 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Honest question…did someone give the GFS anti winter software??? The system for next Wednesday is now completely gone and east of us…seriously, WTF! IIRC the GFS used to spit out cold as if it was on an arctic high all winter only to get squashed by the more reliable Euro…today it appears the Euro is the colder solution and the GFS is the wet blanket…

Hah! What a mess. I said about a month ago that the pattern was looking like a hardcore +AO one, where all the cold gets bottled up to the north. The latest GFS looks like that:

sn10_acc.us_ne.png

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1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Honest question…did someone give the GFS anti winter software??? The system for next Wednesday is now completely gone and east of us…seriously, WTF! IIRC the GFS used to spit out cold as if it was on an arctic high all winter only to get squashed by the more reliable Euro…today it appears the Euro is the colder solution and the GFS is the wet blanket…

GFS is not even showing a lake response off Erie after this system passes through Monday PM.  Not buying it.  RGEM and NAM will finally get to chime in on the 12z run tomorrow!  Only trend on GFS that is concerning (if your hoping for a snow game Monday night) is how much it has slowed everything down.  Here’s a loop of the past 5 runs all for 7pm Monday.  At this rate you guys might just be getting blown over and soaked by the initial frontal passage for kickoff. 

088A714A-517F-4F9C-AC32-327AC8C2DD50.gif

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48 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

GFS is not even showing a lake response off Erie after this system passes through Monday PM.  Not buying it.  RGEM and NAM will finally get to chime in on the 12z run tomorrow!  Only trend on GFS that is concerning (if your hoping for a snow game Monday night) is how much it has slowed everything down.  Here’s a loop of the past 5 runs all for 7pm Monday.  At this rate you guys might just be getting blown over and soaked by the initial frontal passage for kickoff. 

088A714A-517F-4F9C-AC32-327AC8C2DD50.gif

That’s a good trend for me. I’d love to see the frontal passage closer to kickoff (only because I think a true lake band is completely off the table at this point) because about 40 mins after the cold front is usually the peak times for gusts.  The ideal setup is a frontal passage around 730 while tailgating. Then winds ramping up big time right into kickoff and through the first half with gusts to 50-60. Then by second half we have scrappy snowflakes and a stiff breeze as temps plummet.  Perhaps getting a coating on the field.   I think that’s about the most interesting scenario right now. 

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1 hour ago, BGM Blizzard said:

Here another kick to the junk...

Screenshot_20211202-185038_Facebook.thumb.jpg.0d732968ed65b4a96dc02603874c241f.jpgScreenshot_20211202-185116_Chrome.thumb.jpg.b7eede54eaf0849d99a2bdf044603286.jpg

Upgraded to a blizzard warning lol

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
326 PM HST Thu Dec 2 2021

...BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS...

HIZ028-031430-
/O.UPG.PHFO.WS.A.0004.211204T0400Z-211205T1600Z/
/O.NEW.PHFO.BZ.W.0001.211204T0400Z-211205T1600Z/
Big Island Summits-
326 PM HST Thu Dec 2 2021

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM HST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations of
  up to 12 inches or more. Winds gusting over 100 mph.

* WHERE...Big Island Summits.

* WHEN...From 6 PM Friday to 6 AM HST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Blowing
  snow will significantly reduce visibility at times, with periods
  of zero visibility. See the High Wind Warning that is also in
  effect.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The strong winds will likely cause
  significant drifting of snow.
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2 hours ago, BGM Blizzard said:

Here another kick to the junk...

Screenshot_20211202-185038_Facebook.thumb.jpg.0d732968ed65b4a96dc02603874c241f.jpgScreenshot_20211202-185116_Chrome.thumb.jpg.b7eede54eaf0849d99a2bdf044603286.jpg

I saw snow on that summit in 2019 in May. (Mauna Kea) The best star gazing I've ever seen in my life. The 3 telescopes are on the right. It was much colder than I thought and we just had tshirts and a rain jacket. It was in the upper 20s with a stiff breeze.

IMG_0430.thumb.JPEG.4898a7f9f2e381ee934fb54ac5aad2e3.JPEG

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55 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Upgraded to a blizzard warning lol

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
326 PM HST Thu Dec 2 2021

...BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS...

HIZ028-031430-
/O.UPG.PHFO.WS.A.0004.211204T0400Z-211205T1600Z/
/O.NEW.PHFO.BZ.W.0001.211204T0400Z-211205T1600Z/
Big Island Summits-
326 PM HST Thu Dec 2 2021

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM HST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations of
  up to 12 inches or more. Winds gusting over 100 mph.

* WHERE...Big Island Summits.

* WHEN...From 6 PM Friday to 6 AM HST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Blowing
  snow will significantly reduce visibility at times, with periods
  of zero visibility. See the High Wind Warning that is also in
  effect.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The strong winds will likely cause
  significant drifting of snow.

It’s always interesting to see the setup when Hawaii gets a big shot of cold and snow.  In this scenario, an unbelievably deep and explosive mid latitude cyclone explodes off the coast of Russia deepening 40mb in about 24 hours. This forces a massive downstream ridge that then pinches off a chunk of arctic air over the central pacific. It gets hung up for a few days as a cutoff low.  
 

8209E93F-B86A-436D-853F-F053AEC2DA94.thumb.gif.301124ce68f109b0ecbfd59d8abd1609.gif

148A1829-C4D5-4CAD-929A-2B07FFA064FE.thumb.jpeg.00c0614b5b944c4dfcb7d95c5f3f674e.jpeg

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47 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

It’s always interesting to see the setup when Hawaii gets a big shot of cold and snow.  In this scenario, an unbelievably deep and explosive mid latitude cyclone explodes off the coast of Russia deepening 40mb in about 24 hours. This forces a massive downstream ridge that then pinches off a chunk of arctic air over the central pacific. It gets hung up for a few days as a cutoff low.  
 

8209E93F-B86A-436D-853F-F053AEC2DA94.thumb.gif.301124ce68f109b0ecbfd59d8abd1609.gif

148A1829-C4D5-4CAD-929A-2B07FFA064FE.thumb.jpeg.00c0614b5b944c4dfcb7d95c5f3f674e.jpeg

Nice I was looking at it and had two thoughts.

1.  You can see our next system (Monday PM) getting spit out in the Northern Rockies on Sat/Sun but where do we trace it back too.  Hard to tell with so many Lows floating around the NW Pacific Coast line if this is sliding down from Alaska or breaking off from somewhere else.  Any ideas?

2.  Notice when that central basin storm does break off it makes a rubber band like jolt, snapping the chalk line, to realign and in doing so pushes a nice chunk of arctic air our way.  Such an interesting setup would be a shame for us to not cash in with something out of this short term setup.  

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