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Upstate/Eastern New York-Into Winter!


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8 hours ago, TugHillMatt said:

He, Syrmax/Brian, and King/George have been quiet lately. Perhaps they're all in his basement building a catapult to fling me and my curse outta their zone to the hinterlands...

I was in Europe for 2 weeks, just got back. Was trying to get as much Amsterdam Sizzle as I could.  ;)

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Timed spout patrol perfectly this afternoon to catch a few cells roll in off Lake Erie.  Zero spots today but can't beat a couple hours parked along the lake with a coffee on a cold day watching the storms roll in.  Had a few sprays of grapuel so excited to see my first frozen precip on the season.  Also got to explore a new location Wright Park in Dunkirk which was a really nice spot I will have to try again.  Got a few hours free in the morning to head out not sure if I want to try the lake shore again or just take the 219 south until the hills turn white and drive around there for a bit.      

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Good Disco… I’ll copy paste the last part first…

Given this is the first lake effect event of the season and there is at least small potential to even overachieve in heavier snow, have put winter weather advisories up for lake effect snow across Southern Tier and to east of Lake Ontario.
 

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 915 PM EDT Tue Nov 2 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Lake effect east of both lakes will continue tonight into Thursday, causing the first impactful snowfall for portions of the Western Southern Tier and the Tug Hill. Well below normal temperatures will slowly warm through the week. Quiet, mostly dry weather is expected from Friday through at least the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Lake effect showers continue east of both lakes this evening, primarily in the form of rain for most areas; but webcams over the Tug Hill are showing accumulating snow currently falling. A sfc trough across Lake Erie, extending across the Niagara Frontier and over Lake Ontario will swing across the rest of the area the next few hours, shifting winds to more west/northwest and intensifying the lake effect over the Southern Tier and east of Lake Ontario. Given H85 temps falling to -6c this evening and sfc temps dropping back into the 30s, will not take long for the rain/snow to switch to snow with lowering elevations this evening. Over-water instability very impressive tonight especially as shortwave over Michigan swings across the lower Great Lakes. Lake induced CAPES rise to over 1000j/kg and ELs surge above 20kft on Lake Erie and over 25kft on Lake Ontario. Off Lake Erie, flow starts out from northwest off Lake Erie and remains stationary through the night across the Southern Tier. Given this, appears this will be more of a Chautauqua county into Cattaraugus county higher terrain event. Cold enough though that even lower elevations inland from the Lake Erie shore will see some accumulation. Snow totals into early Wed should reach at least 3 inches with higher amounts of 5 inches across higher terrain and in most persistent bands. Some additional snow will occur into Wed morning as another shortwave drops across with still favorable instability in place. Given the closer proximity of the shortwave tonight and steady low-level flow and such high instability think advisory should work out. Off Lake Ontario, flow starts off the evening west-southwest then veers quickly to west-northwest behind the initial sfc trough. Soundings suggest favorable setup for portions of the Tug Hill much of the night, before winds become more northwest late tonight in wake of the shortwave moving through. Farther approach of the shortwave is a limiting factor as is winds shifting some to start, but think degree of instability and a period of stronger low-level convergence, upslope flow into the Tug Hill will make up for this. Similar amounts as Southern Tier, but with much more of a fetch of air modified by warmer waters of Lake Ontario, expect the rain/snow line to be sharp and snow amounts highly dependent on the terrain. Does appear late tonight into early Wednesday, some snow could occur at lower elevations of Oswego county at least farther inland from the Lake Ontario shore.

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3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Thats a real LES event right there, nice! Look at that slop, has to be 1:8 ratio? Not even an advisory up?

Yes we had advisories last night, but they expired around 4 today. I'm around 12" for total event now. NWS APX which is about 5 miles to my east reported 11" for the event.  Snow depth is around 8: as iits compacted a lot, S/R really low around 9:1 if this was higher around typical ratios for my area during LES of around 18:1 would be looking at a 20" event.  Not to shabby for 1st week of November. 

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5 minutes ago, josh_4184 said:

Yes we had advisories last night, but they expired around 4 today. I'm around 12" for total event now. NWS APX which is about 5 miles to my east reported 11" for the event.  Snow depth is around 8: as iits compacted a lot, S/R really low around 9:1 if this was higher around typical ratios for my area during LES of around 18:1 would be looking at a 20" event.  Not to shabby for 1st week of November. 

A great first event, hope you guys have a great year. Usually in weak/mod ninas the further NW you go the better as the cold air source is up there.

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16 minutes ago, josh_4184 said:

Yes we had advisories last night, but they expired around 4 today. I'm around 12" for total event now. NWS APX which is about 5 miles to my east reported 11" for the event.  Snow depth is around 8: as iits compacted a lot, S/R really low around 9:1 if this was higher around typical ratios for my area during LES of around 18:1 would be looking at a 20" event.  Not to shabby for 1st week of November. 

12” at 1:9 and no advisory is crazy. The posters here would be calling for NWS heads if that happened here. 

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2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

12” at 1:9 and no advisory is crazy. The posters here would be calling for NWS heads if that happened here. 

Yea, we did have one but canceled pretty early, one big gripe with APX is they tend to error on side of major caution when it comes to headlines. I cant count how many times we have had warning criteria snowfall without any headlines at all. Up here most folks are just used to it I guess.

Pretty crazy how localized this was even for a LES event, major differences only a few miles away.

 

 

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5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

12” at 1:9 and no advisory is crazy. The posters here would be calling for NWS heads if that happened here. 

Hey, I just perused some of the off-topic discussions. Yeah, I can understand now why that person is no longer a moderator. Yikes. Also, some of the other "moderators" that post on there...I'm disgusted by their behavior and bullying tactics. They really should lose their "tags" as well. I'm so glad we don't have a power-tripping moderator on our sub that tries to dictate others and bully them around.

I love our Subforum! Toxic-free, other than when a few of those individuals troll our banter thread.

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