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Upstate/Eastern New York-Into Winter!


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10 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Fwiw, euro weeklies last night held into a nice normal to below normal pattern with some high latitude blocking but mainly a favorable pacific 

Yeah a good December, Bad January and serviceable Feb/March. I'm only interested in December as the accuracy of them goes to crap after a month out. 

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7 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

My forecast for this season. It’s not the prettiest map but you get the point. 

93B570E2-157C-4237-8BEA-E72938C53F0E.jpeg

I’m going with 113” at KBUF for my first call. I’m thinking we get one big lake effect event (24”+) for the metro finally this year either the last 2 weeks of November or first 2 weeks of December. Think the Southtowns see a huge lake effect event sometime in mid-late January before the lake really freezes up with 3-4 feet plus from Hamburg/OP down through Boston/Colden ala Feb 2007 only a few weeks earlier. 

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7 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said:

Oh god has it been that long?

I remember most how pissed off he would get when runs two weeks out were cherry picked.

Yep been 15 years years since I started posting on the WIVB blog lol. Started on the weather forums back at Eastern Wx in Jan of 07. Man were all getting old haha. 
 

There was way too much drama on a dang weather blog back then but I guess none of us had anything better to do and there wasn’t really social media like there is today where all weather weenies can post and talk about whatever they want whenever they want freely without any consequence or ridicule. 
 

I love this forum as it’s the perfect mix of realism, optimism, and pessimism (TugHillMatt below average snow, above average temps at SYR). No one takes anything to serious but it’s not a total joke. Great place to read learn and converse about weather, sports, and other random topics. 

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42 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

December 2010 was one of the best months in Upstate New york. Syracuse had 70" by Dec 15th that year. Many parts south of Buffalo were in that range too. 

Yep and Dec 2013 was lake effect snow event after lake effect snow event. Had 6 events during the month of December alone…

 

Colden saw almost 100” in December 2013 alone at 91.8”. 
 

Perrysburg had over 117” in that month alone as well. 
 

where’s the dotted line for another month like that. Lol.

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1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

December 2010 was one of the best months in Upstate New york. Syracuse had 70" by Dec 15th that year. Many parts south of Buffalo were in that range too. 

December 1-3 2010 where 40”+ fell from SB and WS to Depew is exactly the type of storm I am thinking of this year for the big event to finally hit the metro. Move that band 5-7 miles north of where that band set up and have those amounts fall over downtown out to southern Amherst, Cheektowaga, and southern Clarence/Williamsville. 

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Just now, lakeeffectkid383 said:

Looks like Pulaski is around 133” a year according to NWS so roughly the same as Lowville. Would have to think Lowville has much better snow retention though. 

Can also drive 15 minutes up rt 177 from Lowville and be in Barnes Corners where there is sometimes 2-3x as much as in Lowville in such a short drive. 

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14 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

Looks like Pulaski is around 133” a year according to NWS so roughly the same as Lowville. Would have to think Lowville has much better snow retention though. 

That's only an 8 year average which includes 3 years with an average of 75" and 5 years at 170" ish.. Those 3 terrible years are the worst I can find..The pulaski COOP has been around since 1947 but only 45% reporting, missing ton of data.. Pulaski averages more than Oswego which averages 141" per year and Bennet's bridge 9 miles east (elevation 600-700') averages 183"..NWS map has pulaski to altmar 160"-180"..(less west, more east)..

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