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E PA/NJ/DE Fall 2021 OBS Thread


Rtd208
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6 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

If we get NAO blocking to counter the progressive PJ around the strong TPV then yes, bad winter incoming. If the NAO doesn't cooperate we are going to need alot of help. Good thing is the NAO has been in the negative generally since Sept....so the tendencies are there. But at some point it is bound to fold, and with the strength of the TPV and depth, that could pose some serious issues/concerns irt winter wx in SEPA. 

NAO and AO both look to be trending negative as we head towards the later part of the month. May see some threats begin to materialize then. I think it was @Wentzadelphia who said Dec.5 as the first real threat in these parts and if things keep trending the way they have, that may not be a bad idea. GFS is already throwing out some fantasy material in the day 8/9 time frame even though the CMC and Euro want nothing to do with it. Things are looking pretty good though to begin Met winter though. Definitely could be a lot worse to begin the season. Cold air doesn't seem to be a problem like the beginning of last year though. Seems to be a ton around and lurking nearby towards the end of the month into Dec.

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We did see our 1st snow flakes of the year overnight and this morning here in NW Chesco. Now while November is certainly not a snowy month - we average only 1.2" of snow. We have had some significant (+6") storms during the month. Of note just 3 years ago on November 15 into the 16th we picked up 7.3" of snow - our top 5 snowstorms in November were:
  1. November 15, 1906 (9.5")
  2. November 6, 1953 (8.6")
  3. November 15-16, 2018 (7.3")
  4. November 26, 1938 (7.0")
  5. November 4, 1910 (6.6")
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NAO/AO/PNA all trending where we want them to be late month

 

nao.sprd2.gif

ao.sprd2.gif

 

pna.sprd2.gif

 

Still early enough in the season though where cold air is likely to be an issue in any event especially in the coastal plain. Regardless, should begin to see some threats appear late month into early December. Can't ask for much more heading into met winter.

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GEFS/EPS do exactly what I spoke about a few days ago wrt Scandinavian ridging propagating into the Greenland region and developing a -NAO. 1st, we need this to not just be some day 8+ fantasy. 2nd, we need to see this become a repetitive background state this winter at least showing up periodically. With the pig TPV still strengthening and anchored over the N Pole and a raging PJ ripping underneath we are going to need NAO blocking this winter to avoid a dud imho. Not saying we can't cash in without it, but as I said the NAO is going to be the biggest key to things this winter. Without it we are going to need alot of PNA/AO help. Good look on guidance post Thanksgiving....thats about all we can hope for at this point.

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Made it up to 48 yesterday after a low of 39, and although I had the same low this morning of 39, I'm already up to 60 at post time, so the warming trend is in place.  Currently a new deck of clouds have moved in so it is mostly cloudy and 60, with dp up to 49, after having dps in the low-mid 30s the past bunch of days.  Had to pull out the humidifiers today since the humidity in here had dropped down to the upper 20%s (not good).  Finally got it back up to a reasonable 40%.

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After a low of 43 this morning, it's currently up to 69 with mostly blue sky.  Saw the setting full moon through the window this morning knowing I won't be able to see it tonight with the incoming tempest.

ETA - when I was out running errands earlier this morning, I took note that 1/2 of the trees are fully in leaf, although most of those have their fall colors.  I know around here, the city would do their 2nd leaf removals (from the streets) around the first week of December and I definitely see why.  It's possible that however gusty this incoming cold front gets, it might knock another batch of leaves down.

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41 minutes ago, RedSky said:

One yellow jacket and my pet red dragonfly landed next-door to me on the concrete, rather incredible.

Confident the yellow jackets will be gone by Christmas with that 30 day outlook, but feel bad for the dragonfly 

 

 

Just saw a little garter snake slither across the walkway. Guess he came out to sun himself. 71F

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Beautiful day here in NW Chesco!! Today was the warmest temperature recorded on this date since the 69 degrees we recorded back in 1963 - but still well short of all-time warmest temp on this day which was 77 degrees way back in 1896. Cold front has now passed and the temp is down 7 degrees in the past hour down to 50.9 now

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1 hour ago, ChescoWx said:

Beautiful day here in NW Chesco!! Today was the warmest temperature recorded on this date since the 69 degrees we recorded back in 1963 - but still well short of all-time warmest temp on this day which was 77 degrees way back in 1896. Cold front has now passed and the temp is down 7 degrees in the past hour down to 50.9 now

I should probably let it go, but what was your actual high? 69?

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