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1 minute ago, NaoPos said:

I’ll guess 120 for S&G’s.. but maybe 115 could be realistic (knots) 

115kt seems reasonable. I'll say we get cat 4 winds either this pass, or the next NE quad pass.. Been going off for awhile.

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54 minutes ago, bobbutts said:

Not downplaying it but hopefully the late bloom will limit the surge some.

It should but obviously will still be really bad.  10-15' instead of 15-20'+ but the former is what is forecasted anyway at this time.  

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22 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

There were some pretty bad takes, especially from a pro forecaster like Eskimo joe, on this.

 

Lake effect king made one post and was spot on. 
 

hopefully though this doesn’t turn out as bad as it looks.

most were off on either strength or landfall position. My take is still in play!

I can't believe I am up all night following this thing.  RI took off.

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nola seemed p confident in the levee situation when it looked like a miss just west with a cat 3, how much wiggle room does an operational levee system offer for a direct hit cat 4+?

and idk about you all but i expect these big federal levee projects were rife with grift and shoddy workmanship because it's the american way, would personally not trust

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2 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

nola seemed p confident in the levee situation when it looked like a miss just west with a cat 3, how much wiggle room does an operational levee system offer for a direct hit cat 4+?

and idk about you all but i expect these big federal levee projects were rife with grift and shoddy workmanship because it's the american way, would personally not trust

I think they are rated for a CAT 3 and no climate change? Don't know for sure but we do typically only build back things to prevent what happened (CAT 3) and not what could happen (this thing).

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3 hours ago, KPITSnow said:

There were some pretty bad takes, especially from a pro forecaster like Eskimo joe, on this.

 

Lake effect king made one post and was spot on. 
 

hopefully though this doesn’t turn out as bad as it looks.

All your takes have been spot on though.

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1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

All your takes have been spot on though.

I don't generally make predictions on things that I am very uneducated on, and also generally trust the mets as well.

Almost every Met on here was saying this exact thing was likely to happen, yet a couple people continually poo pooed this, with Eskimo Joe saying evacuations were irresponsible.

We've gotten relatively lucky for years. We have not had a "big one" that went over a major population center, and have mostly avoided big hits directly on Houston, NOLA, and the atlantic Florida coast and even the florida gulf coast. 

This however is looking like the one we have feared for years.

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1 minute ago, KPITSnow said:

Almost every Met on here was saying this exact thing was likely to happen, yet a couple people continually poo pooed this, with Eskimo Joe saying evacuations were irresponsible.

I certainly missed that part, ooph

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9 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

He does it with every storm, decrying the economic impact. The problem is that yeah, 95% of the time the evacuations aren't needed but that other 5% you risk a disaster.

Good call

New Orleans is screwed :(

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