August 2021

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The other difference this summer is that the bouys south of Long Island are running about 5° cooler than the last few years. There have been many days of 73°-74° water temperatures. Recent summers featured record peak SSTs around 80°. So the sea breeze has been more effective this year at cooling the South Shore. This is only the 3rd time on record that the highest temperature of the season at JFK was in May. If the JFK summer high of 91° holds, then it will be the 3rd coolest of all-time.
 

Monthly Highest Max Temperature for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Season
1969	99	91	97	97	91	83	99
1996	95	91	87	86	90	77	95
1987	95	92	95	93	84	71	95
2021	94	91	90	91	M	M	94

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Jun through Aug
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Highest Max Temperature	Missing Count
1	1967	89	0
2	1951	90	0
3	2021	91	17
-	2014	91	0
-	2004	91	0
-	1996	91	0
-	1985	91	0
-	1960	91	0

Chris, wasn't 1996 one of those other times that it was hottest in May?

Also, why are the SST much cooler this year?  I thought they had been running warmer?

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The other difference this summer is that the bouys south of Long Island are running about 5° cooler than the last few years. There have been many days of 73°-74° water temperatures. Recent summers featured record peak SSTs around 80°. So the sea breeze has been more effective this year at cooling the South Shore. This is only the 3rd time on record that the highest temperature of the season at JFK was in May. If the JFK summer high of 91° holds, then it will be the 3rd coolest of all-time.
 

Monthly Highest Max Temperature for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Season
1969	99	91	97	97	91	83	99
1996	95	91	87	86	90	77	95
1987	95	92	95	93	84	71	95
2021	94	91	90	91	M	M	94

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Jun through Aug
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Highest Max Temperature	Missing Count
1	1967	89	0
2	1951	90	0
3	2021	91	17
-	2014	91	0
-	2004	91	0
-	1996	91	0
-	1985	91	0
-	1960	91	0

wow 1996 and this summer are a close match around here, except it was a little cooler then but just as humid

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

I totally agree.  Most of on the south shore take that afternoon cooldown for granted.  I know I'm working with a small sample and somewhat anecdotal here, but whenever I'm on the northern part of the island in say Smithtown, Hauppauge, etc, at an outdoor gathering, the afternoons there on hot days are so different than at home, where much of the time we get the onshore flow.  Same as I remember when spending time in the summer in central/northern NJ.

It's our small reward here for dealing with that same onshore flow that makes late April / May days, especially afternoons, miserable here when they are beautiful as close by as, say, East Meadow.  Also for ruining the biggest winter storms that get a little too close (yes I know sometimes we benefit in brush-by events but that is more rare...)

dry heat is awesome, nothing as therapeutic as 100 degrees and low humidity, it gives you a natural high.

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, Rjay said:

Nothing beats a sea breeze in the summer.  I have no need for 95+ heat. 

95 is meh, 100 and very dry air is what you want, it's wonderful to run in.  I get a natural high when it hits 100, it's like now I'll remember this summer forever.

[bluewave]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Also, why are the SST much cooler this year?  I thought they had been running warmer?

The SSTs off the whole East Coast are much cooler than last year.

 

[SACRUS]

 

75/55 here and partly sunny.  Front nearby and i think we see more clouds than some are forecasting but otherwise a splendid day with mush less humidity.   More of the same tomorrow with clouds and humidity slowly increasing.  The Western Atlantic Ridge anchored along the east coast and bubbles back up Tue (8/17) - Thu (8/19) but essentially it pushes the hung up front back into the region so clouds  storms and humidity / warm the story.  

By Fri (8/20) - Sun (8/22) flow flattens a bit and some heat pushed through the NE and pending on how much sun / dryness we should see more 90s.  Euro and GFS have a cutoff moving through later Sun and Mon (8/23) as ridge build over into Southern Canada. 

Beyond there 8/23 and onward looking overall warmer than normal with hints of more heat later that week.

 

 

 

 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, bluewave said:

The SSTs off the whole East Coast are much cooler than last year.

 

I wonder if tropical activity will be much more limited then

 

[weathermedic]

Temp-83 DP-45 at my station here in Sheepshead Bay Brooklyn

[LoboLeader1]

As of 5:30 PM here...........TEMP 85/DP 53/RH 40%

[bluewave]

High dew points return on Tuesday as the next 594 dm ridge flexes. But clouds and convection will keep the high temperatures more modest than we typically see with such a strong WAR. Several days of higher dew points in the forecast.

 

[donsutherland1]

In the wake of yesterday's cold front, today saw temperatures hold in the lower and middle 80s across the region. Much of the upcoming week will be a few degrees cooler with highs mainly topping out in the upper 70s and lower 80s.

In addition, parts of the region could receive some rainfall on Thursday from Fred. The heaviest rain is likely to fall south and west of New York City.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around August 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into mid-September.

The SOI was +0.49 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.433 today.

On August 13 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 2.305 (RMM). The August 12-adjusted amplitude was 2.419 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 56% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.3° (0.3° above normal).

 

[JustinRP37]

12 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I wonder if tropical activity will be much more limited then

 

It is a deceptive map. It is 1-year change in SST map, not a SST anomaly. Last year was very warm, and this year is still above average too. 

[SACRUS]

8/15

EWR: 87
PHL: 87
New Brnswck: 86
LGA: 84
ISP: 83
TTN: 83
TEB: 83
NYC: 83
ACY: 82
JFK: 82
BLM: 80

[LibertyBell]

58 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

8/15

EWR: 87
PHL: 87
New Brnswck: 86
LGA: 84
ISP: 83
TTN: 83
TEB: 83
NYC: 83
ACY: 82
JFK: 82
BLM: 80

Heat is over for now.  Next bout of heat begins Aug 20?

 

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

It will be partly sunny and a bit cooler today. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 70s and lower 80s in most of the region.  Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 81°

Newark: 84°

Philadelphia: 84°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 83.5°; 15-Year: 83.4°

Newark: 30-Year: 84.9°; 15-Year: 85.1°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 86.0°; 15-Year: 85.8°

Cooler conditions will persist through much of the week.

[CIK62]

 The next 8 days are averaging 79degs.(73/84), or +4.

T's down---but due to clouds and unknown amounts of rain during the next 7 days.     Expect limited sun.

Fred stronger into Florida PH.    Grace going west into Mexico?     Henri dead before birth?

73*(70%RH) here at 6am, overcast.   Reached 80* about 5pm.

[bluewave]

21 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I wonder if tropical activity will be much more limited then

 

The SSTs across the tropical development areas of the Atlantic are still well above normal. The map I posted was just in reference to the local SSTs and more cooling sea breezes than last year. We are already off to another much faster than normal start to the tropical season. 

 

 

[LibertyBell]

20 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The SSTs across the tropical development areas of the Atlantic are still well above normal. The map I posted was just in reference to the local SSTs and more cooling sea breezes than last year. We are already off to another much faster than normal start to the tropical season. 

 

 

I understand but it's slowed down considerably from earlier in the season and we're now well behind where we were last year.  It looks like the average track this year will also be to our south, as the dominant track has been towards Florida and the GOM?  The other thing I noticed is a lot of these systems developing have been weak.  Minimal TS.

 

[bluewave]

48 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I understand but it's slowed down considerably from earlier in the season and we're now well behind where we were last year.  It looks like the average track this year will also be to our south, as the dominant track has been towards Florida and the GOM?

 

The interruption from earlier in the season was MJO related. Now the MJO has now come around to the more active phases for the Atlantic Basin. Last year it took until we reached the L storm for the first major hurricane. 
 

[jets]

If Td 8 strengthens more and more it could get a bit interesting towards the weekend 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

The interruption from earlier in the season was MJO related. Now the MJO has now come around to the more active phases for the Atlantic Basin. Last year it took until we reached the L storm for the first major hurricane. 
 

It will be interesting to see if we get up to the projected numbers (15+ TS, 10+ H, 5+ MH) and if this is more of a Gulf season, a Florida season or an East coast season.  Do you have any thoughts on that, Chris?

 

[SACRUS]

78/62 and mostly cloudy.  Lucked out with mostly sunny and a gorgeous day on sunday as now any sunshine will be limited the through the week.  Warm and humid but clouds in the way of any heat Tue (8/17) through Fri (8/20).  Remnants of Fred and hung up front can bring some real rain totals Wed- Thu.  Ridge is still near by east coast with higher heights so once we do clear this coming weekend Sat (8/21) - Mon (8/23) looks like the sun will bring heat and next shot at 90s.  Beyond there as we get into next week (8/23) still warmer and some stronger heat may greaxe the region then.

 

Warm and wet and cloudy the theme the next 5 days.

[SACRUS]

11 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Heat is over for now.  Next bout of heat begins Aug 20?

 

Looks possible if we can clear/dry out still warm air overall but clouds will clamp down on anything exceeding 90 / upper 80s.

[uncle W]

the heat will return...90's for everyone...

[bluewave]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

It will be interesting to see if we get up to the projected numbers (15+ TS, 10+ H, 5+ MH) and if this is more of a Gulf season, a Florida season or an East coast season.  Do you have any thoughts on that, Chris?

 

The one thing that stands out since the mid 90s is how consistent the storm tracks have been. All our tropical systems since then have made landfall first to our south before impacting our area. This was the case last year and again this year with Elsa. Fred’s remnants will impact the region this week after coming ashore in the Gulf. Sandy was one of the most extreme events in our local history making the sharp left turn into Southern NJ. Long Island and New England haven’t seen a hurricane eye cross our shoreline since Bob in 1991 and Gloria in 1985. Before that we had Belle in 1976 and all the storms from 1938 into the 1950s. The main question is why this type of hurricane track has become so rare? Maybe the WAR and blocking has become so strong, that this has forced storms more to our SW for landfalls. So it will be interesting to see when this type of hurricane track makes a return.

[Gravity Wave]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The one thing that stands out since the mid 90s is how consistent the storm tracks have been. All our tropical systems since then have made landfall first to our south before impacting our area. This was the case last year and again this year with Elsa. Fred’s remnants will impact the region this week after coming ashore in the Gulf. Sandy was one of the most extreme events in our local history making the sharp left turn into Southern NJ. Long Island and New England hasn’t seen a hurricane eye cross our shoreline  since Bob in 1991 and Gloria in 1985. Before that we had Belle in 1976 and all the storms from 1938 into the 1950s. The main question is why this type of hurricane track has become so rare? Maybe the WAR and blocking has become so strong, that this has forced storms more to our SW for landfalls. So it will be interesting to see when this type of hurricane track makes a return.

Growing up I always thought hurricane landfalls in LI/New England were extremely rare, but history indicates it's more like we're just in an extended drought. The WAR being too overpowering for storms to make landfall north of NC makes some intuitive sense, but we've still seen plenty of classic OTS recurves over the years. I think the more likely explanation is we've just been lucky, and as with all weather luck it's guaranteed to run out sooner or later.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The one thing that stands out since the mid 90s is how consistent the storm tracks have been. All our tropical systems since then have made landfall first to our south before impacting our area. This was the case last year and again this year with Elsa. Fred’s remnants will impact the region this week after coming ashore in the Gulf. Sandy was one of the most extreme events in our local history making the sharp left turn into Southern NJ. Long Island and New England hasn’t seen a hurricane eye cross our shoreline  since Bob in 1991 and Gloria in 1985. Before that we had Belle in 1976 and all the storms from 1938 into the 1950s. The main question is why this type of hurricane track has become so rare? Maybe the WAR and blocking has become so strong, that this has forced storms more to our SW for landfalls. So it will be interesting to see when this type of hurricane track makes a return.

Would you say that this new track actually has more impact on us than the old one did? I don't recall the kind of damage we've seen in Sandy happen in our region from any of the previous storms I've witnessed (Gloria and Bob.)  Even that storm we had last August (I forgot its name) had winds stronger than I ever saw in either Gloria or Bob.  The rainfall is less but the winds have been higher.

 

 

[LibertyBell]

30 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

Growing up I always thought hurricane landfalls in LI/New England were extremely rare, but history indicates it's more like we're just in an extended drought. The WAR being too overpowering for storms to make landfall north of NC makes some intuitive sense, but we've still seen plenty of classic OTS recurves over the years. I think the more likely explanation is we've just been lucky, and as with all weather luck it's guaranteed to run out sooner or later.

another thing is the rarity of having anything higher than a Cat 3 north of NC.  When was the last time anything more than a Cat 3 made landfall in NC or points north?

 

[lee59]

I think we will find going forward that we may get further into the alphabet  before we have our first hurricane. The reason is because we name sub tropical systems and very weak systems. Springtime is when storms like this seem to be named and you have to wait for the water temperatures to warm up properly to support a real hurricane.

[bluewave]

10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Would you say that this new track actually has more impact on us than the old one did? I don't recall the kind of damage we've seen in Sandy happen in our region from any of the previous storms I've witnessed (Gloria and Bob.)  Even that storm we had last August (I forgot its name) had winds stronger than I ever saw in either Gloria or Bob.  The rainfall is less but the winds have been higher.

 

 

Sandy had much more impact than the other hurricanes of the last 100 years from the Jersey Shore to Western Suffolk. The 1938 hurricane really focused its worst damage from Central and Eastern Suffolk up into New England. There was a long gap in hurricanes directly landfalling from Long Island to New England between 1893 and 1938.The period from 1938 to 1961 had a high amount of directly landfalling hurricanes on Long Island and New England. So we have seen extended periods when landfalls concentrated in certain areas. The big challenge  is tying to figure out a shift before it actually occurs.