donsutherland1 Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 Today featured temperatures in the upper 80s and lower 90s across the region. Cooler temperatures are likely starting tomorrow. 90° Days for Select Cities (through August 14): Albany: 4 (2020: 13 days; 5-Year Average: 13.6 days) Allentown: 21 (2020: 24 days; 5-Year Average: 27.6 days) Baltimore: 42 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 44.6 days) Boston: 20 (2020: 14 days; 5-Year Average: 17.2 days) Bridgeport: 10 (2020: 11 days; 5-Year Average: 13.4 days) Burlington: 9 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 13.0 days) Harrisburg: 28 (2020: 35 days; 5-Year Average: 30.6 days) Hartford: 21 (2020: 39 days; 5-Year Average: 29.0 days) Islip: 6 (2020: 8 days; 5-Year Average: 9.4 days) New York City-JFK: 8 (2020: 12 days; 5-Year Average: 10.2 days) New York City-LGA: 21 (2020: 34 days; 5-Year Average: 29.4 days) New York City-NYC: 14 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 18.2 days) Newark: 32 (2020: 32 days; 5-Year Average: 31.2 days) Philadelphia: 29 (2020: 36 days; 5-Year Average: 34.6 days) Scranton: 16 (2020: 25 days; 5-Year Average: 16.4 days) Washington, DC: 38 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 50.8 days) New York City-Newark Average: 19 (2020: 22 days) ...Expected: 21 (based on regression equation tied to JFK-LGA-EWR data) A cold front will move across the region tomorrow. It could trigger showers and thunderstorms. Sunday will turn cooler. At least the first half of next week will likely see near to somewhat below normal readings. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around August 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into mid-September. The SOI was -4.67 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.628 today. On August 12 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 2.423 (RMM). The August 11-adjusted amplitude was 2.403 (RMM). The August 12 preliminary amplitude would surpass the August record amplitude of 2.329 during Phase 2, which was set on August 16, 2009. Extremely strong passage of the MJO through Phase 2 at this time of year has often been followed by additional bouts of heat in the Pacific Northwest into at least mid-autumn. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 56% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.3° (0.3° above normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 8/14 ACY: 93 EWR: 92 BLM: 92 ISP: 91 JFK: 91 New Brnswck: 91 LGA: 91 PHL: 90 TEB: 89 TTN: 88 NYC: 88 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 nice breeze blowing from the north i assume the front has passed by.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 Got to 90 here. 4 day heatwave in Brooklyn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 High of 86 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 High for the day was 92 here. Current temp 77/DP 59/RH 55% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 8 hours ago, binbisso said: I think what makes this summer feel less hot is the constant breaks we've had. The heat waves while impressive have been short lived. We had the very cold Memorial Day weekend even though technically not summer cool 4th of July weekend and then 2 cool weeks from late July into the 1st week of August. the hot summers I remember is the relentless 90ﾟ heat from late June into early to mid August before we get that 1st refreshing cold front. And those hot summers were usually dry too. This year it's 3 or 4 hours of nineties with 100ﾟ heat index before a thunderstorm cools things off late afternoon Yeah more breaks from the heat than in recent memory. Doesnt have to have alot of 90s but the relatively high amount of below 80 highs and some days mainly in the 60s all day hurt the perception to some people. There was a few deceptive midnight high temp days that were actually very cool for summer. Also lots of rain in July. Early heat in June adjusted people to extreme heat, then run of the mill warm days dont hit the same after. I wouldnt call it a cool summer, but I get how it could be perceived that way, at least east of the hudson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 On 8/12/2021 at 9:03 PM, nycwinter said: i live near the park nws feels it is important to keep official readings in the park,, yes for continuity, but there was a break in continuity when they switched to an automated system and stopped trimming the greenery. It was an official heat wave on the south shore, the last three days it was 91-94-92 here. That 94 on Friday was the hottest it's been here all summer. And had a late high of 92 here on Saturday thanks to the west wind and the sun that broke out around 3 PM (the high was at 3:15 PM). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 2 hours ago, dWave said: Yeah more breaks from the heat than in recent memory. Doesnt have to have alot of 90s but the relatively high amount of below 80 highs and some days mainly in the 60s all day hurt the perception to some people. There was a few deceptive midnight high temp days that were actually very cool for summer. Also lots of rain in July. Early heat in June adjusted people to extreme heat, then run of the mill warm days dont hit the same after. I wouldnt call it a cool summer, but I get how it could be perceived that way, at least east of the hudson. it's not perceptive to me, I judge heat by number of hot days and that has to be number of 90 degree days. For me the last several summers haven't been nearly as hot as 2010, 11, and previous summers were. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 2 hours ago, Will - Rutgers said: nice spot There has been a northern expansion of the range of the giant swallowtail in recent years which has been linked to increasingly warm temperatures, and particularly to a lack of September frosts in regions of expansion starting in 2001. Larvae were then able to withstand a few frosts before they pupated. The immediate effects of this warming, as well as their effect on host plants and predators, can explain the giant swallowtail's range expansion.[11 September is now a summer month here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 5 hours ago, SACRUS said: 8/14 ACY: 93 EWR: 92 BLM: 92 ISP: 91 JFK: 91 New Brnswck: 91 LGA: 91 PHL: 90 TEB: 89 TTN: 88 NYC: 88 yay JFK beat NYC by 3 degrees! 92 here on the south shore at 3:15 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 7 hours ago, jm1220 said: I’m in Long Beach today and it was disgusting here too. I’m sure not as hot as my place but higher humidity might even it up. It’s that time of year. I HATE sea breezes and I love the land breeze that gave us this night dry heat day. By the way I've been thinking about something, according to thermodynamics doesn't heat flow from hot to cold? So shouldn't that imply that sea breezes should be rare (since they involve cold air over water going to hot land?) How does the sea breeze manage to disobey thermodynamics laws? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 7 hours ago, jm1220 said: I’m in Long Beach today and it was disgusting here too. I’m sure not as hot as my place but higher humidity might even it up. It’s that time of year. hit 92 here on the south shore today at 3:15, it was a wonderful dry heat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 9 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: Jfk and lga both at 90. Ewr 92 Brief downpour now. Picked up .07" made it to 91 at the airports and 92 here on the south shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 12 hours ago, Rjay said: 89 is my high here so far. 88 ISP (last hour) wow you weren't as hot as I was and yet I'm closer to the ocean (2 miles from it), hit 92 here to complete the heat wave. Why the discrepancy with the JFK temp on Thursday? It was 91 here that day and 94 on Friday, the hottest of the summer so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 11 hours ago, binbisso said: I think what makes this summer feel less hot is the constant breaks we've had. The heat waves while impressive have been short lived. We had the very cold Memorial Day weekend even though technically not summer cool 4th of July weekend and then 2 cool weeks from late July into the 1st week of August. the hot summers I remember is the relentless 90ﾟ heat from late June into early to mid August before we get that 1st refreshing cold front. And those hot summers were usually dry too. This year it's 3 or 4 hours of nineties with 100ﾟ heat index before a thunderstorm cools things off late afternoon I mean it's been hot but not among the hottest. I have a specific criteria for hot and it depends on number of 90 degree highs. The hottest summers to me have been 1983, 1991, 1993, 2002, 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 3 hours ago, LibertyBell said: it's not perceptive to me, I judge heat by number of hot days and that has to be number of 90 degree days. For me the last several summers haven't been nearly as hot as 2010, 11, and previous summers were. I understand many people have their own definitions of hot and cold weather but in the end I just go by the numbers. Whatever they are, they are. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 3 hours ago, LibertyBell said: I HATE sea breezes and I love the land breeze that gave us this night dry heat day. By the way I've been thinking about something, according to thermodynamics doesn't heat flow from hot to cold? So shouldn't that imply that sea breezes should be rare (since they involve cold air over water going to hot land?) How does the sea breeze manage to disobey thermodynamics laws? Nothing beats a sea breeze in the summer. I have no need for 95+ heat. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 3 hours ago, LibertyBell said: wow you weren't as hot as I was and yet I'm closer to the ocean (2 miles from it), hit 92 here to complete the heat wave. Why the discrepancy with the JFK temp on Thursday? It was 91 here that day and 94 on Friday, the hottest of the summer so far. 90 was my high yesterday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 The next 8 days are averaging 80degs.(74/87), or +5. GFS has 8/21-27 penciled in for all 90's. Grace not following Fred and hits Texas instead, in a week. Last 3 days here were 95, 88, 92. 73*(50%RH) here at 6am, scattered clouds. 79* by Noon. Reached 84* around 5:30pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 The only part of our area that is having a hot summer relative to recent years is NE NJ. The average temperature at Newark through August 14th is 4th warmest. This ranking is mostly based on the record heat experienced back in June. July was cooler and wetter for the whole area than recent years. Due to the strong onshore flow so far, JFK is tied for its 2nd coolest summer since 2010. The high of 94 this year at JFK is the 2nd coolest experienced since 2010. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Aug 14 Missing Count 1 2010-08-14 79.4 0 2 2011-08-14 78.7 0 3 2020-08-14 78.0 0 4 2021-08-14 77.9 0 5 2012-08-14 77.2 0 6 2016-08-14 77.1 0 7 2019-08-14 76.8 0 8 2013-08-14 76.6 0 9 2018-08-14 76.1 0 10 2015-08-14 75.9 0 11 2014-08-14 75.1 0 12 2017-08-14 74.9 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Aug 14 Missing Count 1 2020-08-14 79.8 0 2 2010-08-14 79.6 0 3 2016-08-14 78.2 0 4 2019-08-14 77.5 0 - 2018-08-14 77.5 0 - 2012-08-14 77.5 0 5 2013-08-14 77.2 0 6 2021-08-14 77.0 0 7 2011-08-14 76.9 0 8 2017-08-14 75.9 0 - 2015-08-14 75.9 0 9 2014-08-14 75.0 0 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Aug 14 Missing Count 1 2010-08-14 77.6 0 2 2011-08-14 76.3 0 3 2020-08-14 75.9 0 - 2016-08-14 75.9 0 4 2015-08-14 75.5 0 5 2012-08-14 75.4 0 6 2019-08-14 75.1 0 7 2013-08-14 74.8 0 8 2021-08-14 74.0 0 - 2018-08-14 74.0 0 - 2017-08-14 74.0 0 9 2014-08-14 73.9 0 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Highest Max Temperature Jan 1 to Aug 14 Missing Count 1 2011-08-14 103 0 2 2010-08-14 101 0 3 2013-08-14 100 0 4 2019-08-14 99 0 - 2012-08-14 99 0 5 2016-08-14 98 0 6 2020-08-14 97 0 7 2017-08-14 95 0 - 2015-08-14 95 0 8 2021-08-14 94 0 - 2018-08-14 94 0 9 2014-08-14 91 0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 1 hour ago, Rjay said: Nothing beats a sea breeze in the summer. I have no need for 95+ heat. I totally agree. Most of on the south shore take that afternoon cooldown for granted. I know I'm working with a small sample and somewhat anecdotal here, but whenever I'm on the northern part of the island in say Smithtown, Hauppauge, etc, at an outdoor gathering, the afternoons there on hot days are so different than at home, where much of the time we get the onshore flow. Same as I remember when spending time in the summer in central/northern NJ. It's our small reward here for dealing with that same onshore flow that makes late April / May days, especially afternoons, miserable here when they are beautiful as close by as, say, East Meadow. Also for ruining the biggest winter storms that get a little too close (yes I know sometimes we benefit in brush-by events but that is more rare...) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 The other difference this summer is that the bouys south of Long Island are running about 5° cooler than the last few years. There have been many days of 73°-74° water temperatures. Recent summers featured record peak SSTs around 80°. So the sea breeze has been more effective this year at cooling the South Shore. This is only the 3rd time on record that the highest temperature of the season at JFK was in May. If the JFK summer high of 91° holds, then it will be the 3rd coolest of all-time. Monthly Highest Max Temperature for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Season 1969 99 91 97 97 91 83 99 1996 95 91 87 86 90 77 95 1987 95 92 95 93 84 71 95 2021 94 91 90 91 M M 94 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Jun through AugClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 1967 89 0 2 1951 90 0 3 2021 91 17 - 2014 91 0 - 2004 91 0 - 1996 91 0 - 1985 91 0 - 1960 91 0 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 5 hours ago, LibertyBell said: I HATE sea breezes and I love the land breeze that gave us this night dry heat day. By the way I've been thinking about something, according to thermodynamics doesn't heat flow from hot to cold? So shouldn't that imply that sea breezes should be rare (since they involve cold air over water going to hot land?) How does the sea breeze manage to disobey thermodynamics laws? Having seen this topic in my kids Regents Earth Science more times than I can remember, I'm going to go way out of my depth here and answer, using a regents study guide to support me, specifically Barron's Let's Review: Earth Science the Physical Setting, p. 574 lol, which, yes, I had nearby. "During the day land surfaces heat up faster than water. The higher temperatures over the land result in lower air pressures, while the lower temperatures over the water result in higher air pressures there. A wind develops that blows from the high pressure area over the water toward the low pressure area over the land." I must have time on my hands this morning lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 Morning thoughts… It will be partly sunny and cooler today. Temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 82° Newark: 87° Philadelphia: 85° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 83.6°; 15-Year: 83.6° Newark: 30-Year: 85.0°; 15-Year: 85.3° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 86.1°; 15-Year: 86.0° Cooler conditions will persist through much of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 It’s been a very strange summer where Newark has been very hot but for the rest of the area, hot days are the exception Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 22 minutes ago, qg_omega said: It’s been a very strange summer where Newark has been very hot but for the rest of the area, hot days are the exception The whole area around Newark has been warmer than the rest of the region this summer. The urbanized NE NJ corridor has had 27-32 days reaching 90°. Last summer it was areas further north and east of there that had the most anomalous heat. 90° days Newark………….……33 Caldwell…………...…32 Harrison………………31 New Brunswick……29 Somerset…………….27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 3 hours ago, Rjay said: I understand many people have their own definitions of hot and cold weather but in the end I just go by the numbers. Whatever they are, they are. it's because minimum temps are determined by things other than heat, like humidity, urban heat island, etc. Also, I tangibly feel hotter when there are more hot days. The summers that stay in my memory the longest are the ones with no breaks and the most number of hot days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 45 minutes ago, bluewave said: The whole area around Newark has been warmer than the rest of the region this summer. The urbanized NE NJ corridor has had 27-32 days reaching 90°. Last summer it was areas further north and east of there that had the most anomalous heat. 90° days Newark………….……33 Caldwell…………...…32 Harrison………………31 New Brunswick……29 Somerset…………….27 Question is WHY is the area of heat limited to such a small region? WHY can't we get the entire eastern half of the country to experience all time historic heat? And when was the last time that happened- 2010? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 1 hour ago, coastalplainsnowman said: Having seen this topic in my kids Regents Earth Science more times than I can remember, I'm going to go way out of my depth here and answer, using a regents study guide to support me, specifically Barron's Let's Review: Earth Science the Physical Setting, p. 574 lol, which, yes, I had nearby. "During the day land surfaces heat up faster than water. The higher temperatures over the land result in lower air pressures, while the lower temperatures over the water result in higher air pressures there. A wind develops that blows from the high pressure area over the water toward the low pressure area over the land." I must have time on my hands this morning lol figured it would have something to do with pressure lol. it's why you need a strong land breeze to overcome it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now