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Hurricane Elsa


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4 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

Irma made landfall near Naples as a cat 3...

If anyone is in for a rude awakening it's the east coast of Florida.  Hasn't had a hurricane landfall since Katrina.

Even last year, which was a year it seemed all the storms missed us, in late season we lost a tree in our backyard and had two days of clean up. Can't even remember the name, so many storms over so many years.

On the morning after when I was starting to make a path in our backyard, I heard a little girl who lives behind our house on the other side of the fence who we have never seen, when she came outside and saw all the debris around said, "WOW Mommy! Whaaaat happened?" LOL

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1 minute ago, Tezeta said:

Yeah I guess Irma counts…but tbh I consider it a fake 4 in the keys and a fake 3 at Naples. It isn’t quite red meat enough but it’s hard to get that on the western coast. 

Fake? Were you here?

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6 minutes ago, Tezeta said:

Yeah I guess Irma counts…but tbh I consider it a fake 4 in the keys and a fake 3 at Naples. It isn’t quite red meat enough but it’s hard to get that on the western coast. 

Irma wasn't fake. That's for sure.

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2 minutes ago, FLweather said:

Elsa definitely showing her colors tonight.

LLC and mid and upper levels stacking.

Will be a hurricane sometime early in the morning tomorrow mid day.

Yeah I'm looking forward to reading the 11pm update soon. Guessing they will up the current strength to 50-55 mph with the 45 knot windbarbs on the recent ascat and probably up the forecast to hurricane strength. 

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6 minutes ago, FLweather said:

Elsa definitely showing her colors tonight.

LLC and mid and upper levels stacking.

Will be a hurricane sometime early in the morning tomorrow mid day.

It looks quite good tonight on IR. It needs to keep the deep convection going for like 12-24 hours though to really allow for an inner core to develop. We see plenty of systems look good overnight just to have the convective trend collapse after losing the diurnal assist. 

Heck of a start tonight though with those hot towers.

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42 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

Irma made landfall near Naples as a cat 3...

If anyone is in for a rude awakening it's the east coast of Florida.  Hasn't had a hurricane landfall since Katrina.

Cape Verde hurricanes are their wheelhouse. This is an early season ITCZ slopgyre those tend to ride low GOM-bound.

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Excellent discussion tonight. Still a ton of uncertainty with this. 

Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052021
1100 PM AST Thu Jul 01 2021

The convective structure with Elsa tonight appears to be somewhat 
better organized than earlier, with a bursting type pattern of cold 
-75 to -80 C cloud top temperatures just to the northeast of the 
estimated center. However, a SSMIS microwave pass at 2130 UTC 
revealed that, underneath the cirrus, the deeper convection is still 
struggling to rotate up-shear as the system moves quickly to the 
west-northwest. Despite that fact, an ASCAT-A pass clipped the 
northeastern edge of Elsa and showed several wind retrievals of 
44-46 kt. In addition, the most recent subjective Dvorak satellite 
classification from TAFB was T3.0/45 kt. In support of these data, 
the current estimated intensity was raised to 45 kt for this 
advisory.  

Elsa continues to move quickly to the west-northwest at 290/23 kt. A 
continued rapid motion to the west-northwest is expected for the 
next 36 hours as the storm remains steered by a strong subtropical 
ridge to its north, and the guidance has trended a bit faster once 
again tonight. Thereafter, Elsa will reach the western extent of 
this ridge which will be eroded by a strong mid-latitude trough 
centered off the eastern US. Once again, the guidance spread 
increases greatly by this time, with the GFS/UKMET on the slow and 
left side of the guidance envelope, the ECMWF and its ensembles on 
the fast and right side, and the Canadian roughly in the middle. 
Interestingly, the latest GFS ensembles show some bifurcation within 
the larger guidance envelope, with the strongest members further 
south and west. The latest NHC track forecast is close to the 
previous track early on but somewhat faster, and in the latter 
period was nudged just slightly eastward towards the TVCN 
consensus. However, the track forecast in the latter time period 
remains low confidence.

The intensity forecast with Elsa also continues to be challenging 
this evening. While the GFS-based SHIPS guidance indicates that the 
current 200-850-hPa vertical wind shear is only 5-10 kt, the strong 
east-southeasterly low-level flow Elsa is embedded in is resulting 
in stronger 15-20 kt of west-northwesterly mid-level shear. This 
mid-level shear has thus far prevented deep convection from wrapping 
around the circulation and helping to align the low- and mid-level 
vortex like the GFS/HWRF models have been forecasting over the past 
day. Despite this convective structure, the fast east-southeasterly 
low-level flow will likely continue to enhance the winds on the 
north side of the circulation. For this reason, the intensity 
forecast still shows intensification in the short term to 55 kt. 
However, additional intensification beyond that will likely require 
a better vertically aligned vortex. This structure may be difficult 
to achieve as moderate mid-level shear continues, counter to the 
motion vector of the storm. After 48 hours, the intensity forecast 
shows slight weakening given the possibility of land interaction 
over the Greater Antilles. The latest intensity forecast continues 
remain on the conservative side relative to the guidance, especially 
the HWRF/HMON regional hurricane models, and is also low 
confidence. 


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin early Friday in 
portions of the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, and are 
possible over portions of southern Hispaniola on Saturday, and 
are also possible over Jamaica beginning Saturday night. 

2. Heavy rainfall from Elsa will move quickly across the Windward
and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados, on Friday. Outer
rain bands will impact Puerto Rico on Friday and southern Hispaniola
by early Saturday. Flooding and mudslides are possible.

3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts in portions of 
Cuba, the Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas through early next 
week. Interests in these areas should monitor Elsa's progress
and updates to the forecast.

4. There is a risk of storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts in the
Florida Keys and portions of the Florida Peninsula early next week.
However, the forecast uncertainty remains larger than usual due to
Elsa's potential interaction with the Greater Antilles this weekend.
Interests in Florida should monitor Elsa's progress and updates to
the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0300Z 11.8N  55.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  02/1200Z 12.8N  59.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  03/0000Z 14.5N  64.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  03/1200Z 16.2N  69.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  04/0000Z 17.7N  73.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  04/1200Z 19.4N  76.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  05/0000Z 21.2N  78.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  06/0000Z 23.9N  81.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  07/0000Z 28.2N  83.1W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin/Brown
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3 hours ago, Prospero said:

We've been spared direct hits, but I was here for Charlie, Francis, and Jeane, which all took down trees and power, and countless damaging storms since then. Irma was the worst. But in our circle of friends and family, homes and businesses have been destroyed, who knows how much financial loss we have all endured -- almost every year on some level. Last year was an oddity they all missed us. We've been awoken rudely so many times, but yes no direct hits in the Tampa Bay area for a long time. I was a kid with Agnes, the highest storm surge I have ever seen. Wiped out a lot of businesses on the beaches.

50 miles inland for a Cat 2 13 years ago, almost a week no power, roof damage in the neighborhood.  HRD estimate 80 mph top sustained.  Category 2.  Wiped out most of the houses in an area of beach houses called Crystal Beach, destroyed my wife's grandparents beach place.

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6 hours ago, hlcater said:

I’d lean bearish on near term intensity. Having such a fast forward motion and attendant strong fetch on the northern side is going to favor a very lopsided system even if shear and dry air are negligible. I suspect that the system will appear reminiscent of some of those later season gulf storms from recent years that suffer from the same issue, just rotated 90 degrees. Think the best shot for respectable intensification is after FH48 when this is in the eastern Caribbean and slowing down.

Lol. We are aging well this hour

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Both the GFS and HWRF came a little further west with the 0z runs.

Big bend of FL north of Tampa and Clearwater.

GFS the strongest of the 2. 968mb prior to landfall.

HMON targeting SW FL.

Canadian the outlier and the weakest never makes landfall in FL. But skirts east of Miami as a marginal TD/TS.

 

Imo FL still very much in the possibility of having landfall some where. A Irma style track very possible.... SW FL landfall right up the middle of the state.

 

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Couple quick points:

1. Looking at the radar loop and IR, it seems pretty clear that Elsa’s convective burst overnight did a lot to help develop an inner core. Critically, it’s not complete, which means any organizational progress we’re seeing now is fragile, so we need to see what happens today. That said, what we see so far IMO increases the odds of survival in the eastern Caribbean.

SHC5qqs.png

2. The guidance, despite having a large spread, hasn’t really shifted a lot. Of course, there are wobbles here and there but the general evolution hasn’t fundamentally changed. Folks in Florida and the SE coast shouldn’t be waiting for the guidance to have consensus to start preparing.

3. Recon has taken off and is en route. A lot of flights are planned and both low level recon and the high altitude environmental sampling will be huge for intensity and track forecasting. I wouldn’t get caught up in the guidance really until it has had time to initialize on actual observational data. 

The presentation overall this morning is significantly better than it was 12 hours ago. The only thing slowing this down right now, is the practically supersonic speed lol.

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2 hours ago, FLweather said:

Both the GFS and HWRF came a little further west with the 0z runs.

Big bend of FL north of Tampa and Clearwater.

GFS the strongest of the 2. 968mb prior to landfall.

HMON targeting SW FL.

Canadian the outlier and the weakest never makes landfall in FL. But skirts east of Miami as a marginal TD/TS.

 

Imo FL still very much in the possibility of having landfall some where. A Irma style track very possible.... SW FL landfall right up the middle of the state.

 


In Tampa this week we’ve been dealing with BAU street flooding from PM storms, and then the stench of dead fish and airborne irritants from red tide pushed in by onshore flow.

Didn’t have a early July TS on the bingo card, still a wide spread for tracks so mildly interested but not concerned at this point.

 

 

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Hurricane Elsa Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052021
745 AM AST Fri Jul 02 2021

...ELSA STRENGTHENS TO A HURRICANE...

Surface observations from Barbados indicate that Elsa's maximum 
sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph, and the cyclone 
is now a hurricane.  A special advisory will be issued within the 
hour in place of the normal intermediate advisory. 

The Meteorological Service of Barbados has issued Hurricane 
Warning for Barbados, St. Vincent, and the Grenadines. 

The Meteorological Service of St. Lucia has issued a Hurricane 
Warning for St. Lucia.

The Meteorological Service of Barbados reported a sustained wind of 
74 mph and a gust to 86 mph.  

SUMMARY OF 745 AM AST...1145 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 59.8W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM WSW OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM E OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Beven/Latto/ZelinskyHello 
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Core hasn’t fully closed off, but clearly Elsa is not suffering terribly from the extreme forward motion. The environment later today and tonight might be even more favorable as all the guidance had some intensification/organization after the Antilles.

It should be noted that SHIPS did highlight a higher than normal probability of rapid intensification and the GFS/HWRF’s bullish forecasts from 24-48 hours ago look to be much closer to reality than the other guidance. Doesn’t mean it’ll be right in future forecast points but it’s worth noting. 

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Recon is descending into the hurricane now. Radar kind of shows it but the key thing here is how well-formed the inner core is, and secondarily IMO, how strong it actually is IMO. The more organized...the higher intensity ceiling...the higher intensity ceiling, the greater potential for a further west track...

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Both are way out but interesting track divergence between 6z HMON and HWRF

HMON up the middle of the peninsula while HWRF rides the coast along Pinellas Countty as a strong TS or Cat 1.  Not worst case trajectory  but a high impact and damaging event for TB region with that track.

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Hurricane Elsa Special Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052021
830 AM AST Fri Jul 02 2021

Surface observations from Barbados indicate that Elsa has become a 
hurricane, and this special advisory is being issued to update the 
first 36 h of the intensity and wind radii forecasts.  More 
revisions of the intensity forecast are likely on the next regular 
advisory.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 
currently entering the hurricane, and a NOAA aircraft is scheduled 
to investigate the system this afternoon.

There are no changes to the forecast track at this time.  It should 
be noted that the average NHC track errors are 175 miles and 200 
miles at days 4 and 5, respectively.  Given the larger-than-normal 
uncertainty and because hazards will extend well away from the 
center of the storm, users are urged to not focus on the exact 
forecast points.

Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are occurring on Barbados and are expected 
elsewhere in the Hurricane Warning area in the next few hours.  
Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin later this morning 
in other portions of the Windward and Leeward Islands. Tropical 
storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible 
over southern portions of Hispaniola on Saturday. Tropical storm 
conditions are possible over Jamaica beginning Saturday night.

2. Heavy rainfall from Elsa will move quickly across the Windward
and southern Leeward Islands today, including Barbados. Outer rain
bands will impact Puerto Rico late today into Saturday, and southern
Hispaniola and Jamaica Saturday into Sunday. Flooding and mudslides
are possible.

3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts in portions of
Cuba, the Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas through early next
week. Interests in these areas should monitor Elsa's progress and
updates to the forecast.

4. There is a risk of storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts in the
Florida Keys and portions of the Florida Peninsula early next week.
However, the forecast uncertainty remains larger than usual due to
Elsa's potential interaction with the Greater Antilles this weekend.
Interests in Florida should monitor Elsa's progress and updates to
the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/1230Z 13.1N  60.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  02/1800Z 13.8N  62.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  03/0600Z 15.4N  67.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  03/1800Z 17.1N  71.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  04/0600Z 18.7N  75.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  04/1800Z 20.2N  77.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  05/0600Z 21.7N  79.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  06/0600Z 25.2N  82.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  07/0600Z 29.2N  82.6W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven
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