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July 2021 General Discussion


IWXwx
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There is model agreement in depicting below normal temps going into the first weekend of July, but quickly diverge with the Euro dropping in a high pressure over the sub and a quick temperature recovery for the 4th-5th holiday, while the GFS cuts off a low over the Great Lakes, with accompanying well below normal temperatures through the 5th.

 

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6 hours ago, IWXwx said:

There is model agreement in depicting below normal temps going into the first weekend of July, but quickly diverge with the Euro dropping in a high pressure over the sub and a quick temperature recovery for the 4th-5th holiday, while the GFS cuts off a low over the Great Lakes, with accompanying well below normal temperatures through the 5th.

 

JB is rooting on a chilly start to July. 

If the GFS verifies, that could be the worst pattern to start off July in a long time.

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On 6/27/2021 at 9:13 AM, IWXwx said:

There is model agreement in depicting below normal temps going into the first weekend of July, but quickly diverge with the Euro dropping in a high pressure over the sub and a quick temperature recovery for the 4th-5th holiday, while the GFS cuts off a low over the Great Lakes, with accompanying well below normal temperatures through the 5th.

 

Still just a wee bit of disagreement between models for the 4th.

Euro 07042118z.png

GFS07042118z.png

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From SPC 4-8. Summer is typically a low-predictability regime for severe (although lately when is A/M any different?) so kind of bold of them to put this in here at this range, and it's not Broyles!

Quote
 A stronger upper shortwave trough is forecast to develop
   east/southeast across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest around
   Day 8/Fri. Stronger west/northwesterly deep-layer flow is expected
   with this system as a deepening surface low develops and sweeps a
   cold front across the region. Increasing severe potential could
   accompany this system and probabilities may be needed in subsequent
   outlooks if forecast trends are maintained.

I personally haven't looked at any modeling for this time frame yet. Have to see if the presence of Elsa in the Gulf messes up the moisture return, although it seems like it should be out of there by then.

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9 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

From SPC 4-8. Summer is typically a low-predictability regime for severe (although lately when is A/M any different?) so kind of bold of them to put this in here at this range, and it's not Broyles!

I personally haven't looked at any modeling for this time frame yet. Have to see if the presence of Elsa in the Gulf messes up the moisture return, although it seems like it should be out of there by then.

The long term forecaster at IND this morning mentioned the possibility of a "strong" system in that timeframe. Made me look.

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1 hour ago, Brian D said:

Mid to upper 80's currently around here with dews in the mid 60's. Air is a little heavy with 10mph breeze from the SW. Juice for tomorrows storms.

Our neighbors to the north are getting in on the PacNW heat dome, MCV action and wildfires. We have that telltale milky blue sky in Chicago today - pretty wild to see the highly amped pattern via smoke plumes emanating from Ontario and Manitoba. 

070321.thumb.png.ec214a48b047cd1ff8c711a59fa82e56.png

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21 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

Our neighbors to the north are getting in on the PacNW heat dome, MCV action and wildfires. We have that telltale milky blue sky in Chicago today - pretty wild to see the highly amped pattern via smoke plumes emanating from Ontario and Manitoba. 

070321.thumb.png.ec214a48b047cd1ff8c711a59fa82e56.png

I've been outside much of the day and noticed that the sky looked off.  Was wondering if it was smoke.

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3 hours ago, Hoosier said:

I've been outside much of the day and noticed that the sky looked off.  Was wondering if it was smoke.

We've had a real hazy sky for a couple days now. Along with lots of cirrus. You can barely see them. Never dawned on me that it might me smoke. Been busy with other stuff.

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1 hour ago, hardypalmguy said:

Retired my old Davis Vantage Vue after 10 years of hard service in this climate. Just put its replacement up. 

0830CC7D-533B-4CB1-B357-FA85652AF042.jpeg

I have yet to get one. Haven't been able to, and I see people have trouble with them in general these days in the reviews. Tell me how it goes with your new purchase.

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