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Central PA - Summer 2021


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The worst is yet to come from them, and darkness is near. 

Highest winds there since Betsy (1965) at least. Wind sensors at airport and other stations there all failed recently. This thing is crawling and they are going to get pummeled all night.


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Did you happen to hear that today is the 16th anniversary of Katrina hitting New Orleans?  Amazing...8/29/05 Katrina ravages NO.  If it still is a depression we could see sustained 25+mph winds here Wednesday along with the torrential rain.  I certainly hope the icon's 11" for MDT does not materialize.  Even 6-8" is going to create some havoc around here.

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Did you happen to hear that today is the 16th anniversary of Katrina hitting New Orleans?  Amazing...8/29/05 Katrina ravages NO.  If it still is a depression we could see sustained 25+mph winds here Wednesday along with the torrential rain.  I certainly hope the icon's 11" for MDT does not materialize.  Even 6-8" is going to create some havoc around here.

5”-7” will send all the tributaries to at least moderate flood stage. Everything seems to be picking up on a through laying right over us for enhancement. Throw in a huge easterly fetch banging into that and mountains along with the core passing just south and the potential is there for areas to rival Lee


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38 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

@Voyager the guy that made that idiotic comment in the Philly thread - he didn't even spell his hometown right. That oughta tell you something...

Haha...that's funny!

I had to go back and look. When I replied to his post I was on my phone, and the app doesn't show peoples locations. I'm now on the home PC which does.

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16 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Lol… how about we place the low about 50 miles off of the coast of OCMD for an all snow LSV crushing!

Now, now hold on...the Blizz and Losetoa model had me in the big snows but I do not like where these adjustments are headed.  Pretty soon Mag will be be partly cloudy and the 'Ville is jsut flurries. 

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17 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Lol… how about we place the low about 50 miles off of the coast of OCMD for an all snow LSV crushing!

With the qpf totals were talking about, you think there was a SECS coming in.

3-5, 5-7, etc...lol

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I was just looking at the 18z Euro and its QPF output, which wasn’t even done through hr 90. This area back here would be in big trouble if we ended up with something like that, wow. 

While the Sus Valley had Lee more recently as the last major tropical flooding event, gotta go back to 2004 with the one-two of Frances and Ivan in a one week span back in this part of central PA for historic tropical related flooding. The 7.55” and counting the 18z Euro put out at KAOO would probably amount to something worse than even that if that actually came to fruition. 

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2 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

I was just looking at the 18z Euro and its QPF output, which wasn’t even done through hr 90. This area back here would be in big trouble if we ended up with something like that, wow. 

While the Sus Valley had Lee more recently as the last major tropical flooding event, gotta go back to 2004 with the one-two of Frances and Ivan in a one week span back in this part of central PA for historic tropical related flooding. The 7.55” and counting the 18z Euro put out at KAOO would probably amount to something worse than even that if that actually came to fruition. 

I don't have off hour Euro access. What's the qpf look like for central and eastern PA?

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12 minutes ago, Voyager said:

I don't have off hour Euro access. What's the qpf look like for central and eastern PA?

Here’s the Hr 90 frame, which I chose 1 hr QPF to show roughly where the precip shield still  was. 

image.thumb.png.843dc864176c993b79a2f2421398afe9.png

 

And here is the 48 hr QPF total to that point, most of this falls in 24hr back where these extreme totals are in the central counties. 

image.thumb.png.85264dfbc5dc3a7c0316d979cebfb10e.pngimage.thumb.png.85264dfbc5dc3a7c0316d979cebfb10e.png

 That’s definitely the most extreme of the model suite I’ve seen for sure, and I hope it is being a bit too over amped. 

 

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28 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Here’s the Hr 90 frame, which I chose 1 hr QPF to show roughly where the precip shield still  was. 

image.thumb.png.843dc864176c993b79a2f2421398afe9.png

 

And here is the 48 hr QPF total to that point, most of this falls in 24hr back where these extreme totals are in the central counties. 

image.thumb.png.85264dfbc5dc3a7c0316d979cebfb10e.pngimage.thumb.png.85264dfbc5dc3a7c0316d979cebfb10e.png

 That’s definitely the most extreme of the model suite I’ve seen for sure, and I hope it is being a bit too over amped. 

 

Thanks. Looks like it's going to be a wild ride for some/most of PA from this one.

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15 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Flood rescue in NO again.  Levees failing again? Crazy if some of these reports are true.

I know earlier Cantore was wondering aloud on his live report earlier if the entire city being out took out some/most of the pumps that’s take care of getting storm water out. It’s been reported that a transmission tower failed taking a line down over the Mississippi. Either way, I’m sure there’s portions of the city that are having problems with flooding just from the excessive rainfall.

As bad as things are, the center coming up just west of New Orleans instead of taking a Katrina like track just east should be keeping major surge off of the Ponchartrain levees, which was where a lot of the 2005 failures were (obviously much improved now) Instead, the major surge is on the NW corner of Lake Ponchartrain with the northern and eastern eyewall going up just west of most of the metro area. At this point of the storm, the fetch is southerly or away from the Ponchartrain shoreline in New Orleans. 

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50 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

As we get closer to Ida's remnants, whats the take on rainfall we would actually receive in The Susquehanna Valley?

CTP this morning is saying a general 2-4" across most of Central PA, with some spots potentially getting up to 6". This seems less than what the consensus was last evening, but I'm far from an expert with tropical. 

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39 minutes ago, Voyager said:

See...even the NWS gets it. Look how they painted the 4-6 inch gradient AROUND Schuylkill County. There is ALWAYS a dip in qpf here.. Somehow, my location always ends up getting the shaft...

FB_IMG_1630324131668.jpg

Man, this looks like our snow maps in the winter in Pittsburgh lol.

 

honestly I’m fine with missing this one though.

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1 hour ago, Voyager said:

See...even the NWS gets it. Look how they painted the 4-6 inch gradient AROUND Schuylkill County. There is ALWAYS a dip in qpf here.. Somehow, my location always ends up getting the shaft...

FB_IMG_1630324131668.jpg

Some of the models really trended south overnight...the NAM this morning was a fringe job for even my area. Heaviest precip was well south in MD/VA. 

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1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Some of the models really trended south overnight...the NAM this morning was a fringe job for even my area. Heaviest precip was well south in MD/VA. 

Just like winter. Hook you in and give you hope and then, boom. Fringe job. Let's hope, as in winter, they trend back north...

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