Jns2183 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 Take a look at the HREF ensemble mean. Not many times you see mean qpf >6” over a huge area. If that isn’t a massive signal I don’t know what is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 Take a look at the HREF ensemble mean. Not many times you see mean qpf >6” over a huge area. If that isn’t a massive signal I don’t know what is.Yeah, crazy.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 Just now, Jns2183 said: . The North trend has as much support as any trend I have ever seen. Almost everything is pointing that way now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDreamTraveler Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 4 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: . There's even more on this. It's absolutely nuts lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 Euro is going to be an MSV and USV mauler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 The North trend has as much support as any trend I have ever seen. Almost everything is pointing that way now. Whenever people said it was a south trend or a north trend it seems regardless Cumberland and dauphin counties have been smoked on every model run for days it seems. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 Just now, Jns2183 said: Whenever people said it was a south trend or a north trend it seems regardless Cumberland and dauphin counties have been smoked on every model run for days it seems. . How close are you to the Yellow Breeches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 Already issues in our area. Have a slow outer band moving through causing flooding already. I have a feeling some of our low lying areas are in big trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 3 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: Whenever people said it was a south trend or a north trend it seems regardless Cumberland and dauphin counties have been smoked on every model run for days it seems. . Cumberland is at the southern end of the Euro heavy rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 5 minutes ago, sauss06 said: How close are you to the Yellow Breeches? It and the Swatara are in serious trouble. Poor Hoss’ (why the f did they rebuild ..l plus it is an awful restaurant anyway lol) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 How close are you to the Yellow Breeches? Far enough where Agnes II would be required before I was worried . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 Cumberland is at the southern end of the Euro heavy rains. The Hires short term models paint a lot larger area of heavy rain. Being a tropical system you almost have to weight numbers being underdone as it will be quite efficient as wringing moisture out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDreamTraveler Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 6 minutes ago, canderson said: It and the Swatara are in serious trouble. Poor Hoss’ (why the f did they rebuild ..l plus it is an awful restaurant anyway lol) They actually rebuilt in the same spot? wtf lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 So with the low strengthens as it goes under us as it undergoes post tropical transformation is there any worry of stronger winds mixing down in the heavy convection cause that is a wildcard that would make this far far worse . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted August 31, 2021 Author Share Posted August 31, 2021 As the north trend in modeling for the heaviest rain continues, so does the north trend for Tornadoes: I'd much prefer the heavy rain, thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: So with the low strengthens as it goes under us as it undergoes post tropical transformation is there any worry of stronger winds mixing down in the heavy convection cause that is a wildcard that would make this far far worse . I always worry about the wind, maybe not as much as my compadre across the mighty susky, but some of these smaller storms we have had this year and the trees they toppled over, bothers the shit out of me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 I always worry about the wind, maybe not as much as my compadre across the mighty susky, but some of these smaller storms we have had this year and the trees they toppled over, bothers the shit out of meMy parents had a 60ft tree fall after Lee. No wind. Just soaked ground. Any wind whatsoever will be bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 WPC not backing down. Keeps axis from MD line north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 1 minute ago, Cashtown_Coop said: WPC not backing down. Keeps axis from MD line north looks like they bumped it slightly north for western PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 1 minute ago, Cashtown_Coop said: WPC not backing down. Keeps axis from MD line north What’s the color legend on this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 Just now, KPITSnow said: What’s the color legend on this? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 Just now, Cashtown_Coop said: I believe most lsv is in 5-7”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 15 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: WPC not backing down. Keeps axis from MD line north That does seem a bit high when comparing to the common Meso's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: That does seem a bit high when comparing to the common Meso's. I’m going with 2-4” for us, 4-6” 2nd tier counties and a bullseye 8-10” amount say Perry county northern Dauphin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 Just now, Cashtown_Coop said: I’m going with 2-4” for us, 4-6” 2nd tier counties and a bullseye 8-10” amount say Perry county northern Dauphin Undercutting WPC down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 I’m going with 2-4” for us, 4-6” 2nd tier counties and a bullseye 8-10” amount say Perry county northern Dauphin Someone here is going to see 10”+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 1 minute ago, Jns2183 said: Someone here is going to see 10”+ . It's time to get Voyager off the schneid. Make him the jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Undercutting WPC down here. Bands will set up north of us. Still 24 hours of north trends yet. Like watching our foot of snow turn into 2” of slush to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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